Trading Signals: XLK Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. May. 12, 2008

Trading Signals: XLK Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Technology sector ETF)
XLK latest price $24.9000 (1.63%) ($24.5200 - $24.9000) on Mon. May. 12, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.58% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $24.9000(1.63%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XLK advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XLK advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XLK advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(92%)    SPY(90%)    XLY(85%)    IWM(79%)    EEM(75%)
Factors Impacting XLK price   XLK will decline at least -0.79% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-29%)    SHY(-17%)    TIP(-9%)    GLD(3%)    LQD(19%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.79% (StdDev 1.58%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $24.7(0.81%)
10 Day Moving Average   $24.59(1.26%)
20 Day Moving Average   $24.19(2.94%)
To recent high   -0.3%
To recent low   14.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XLK price fluctuates within 2.81% (three month std-dev: 1.58%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20080612

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_12_2008	23.47	24.19	24.59	24.7			24.9(1.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-10000	2	52	1.65	63%	-0.09	66.9	1.58%	0	1	65	0
2	May_9_2008	23.49	24.07	24.5	24.66			24.5(-0.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	10	-10000	-3	48	2.92	63%	-0.13	57.2	1.57%	0	0.6	59	0
3	May_8_2008	23.52	23.98	24.46	24.71			24.58(0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	12	-10000	-3	57	7.47	63%	-0.08	55.3	1.58%	0	0.8	62	0
4	May_7_2008	23.54	23.91	24.43	24.76			24.54(-1.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	26	-10000	8	80	4.7	63%	-0.08	56.3	1.58%	0	0.9	66	0
5	May_6_2008	23.56	23.84	24.38	24.61			24.98(1.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	25	-10000	8	77	3.5	66%	-0.04	49.7	1.56%	0	1.6	73	0

6	May_5_2008	23.57	23.74	24.26	24.46			24.68(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	27	-10000	7	85	1.54	62%	-0.08	47.4	1.57%	0	1.4	79	0
7	May_2_2008	23.59	23.66	24.19	24.32			24.79(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	30	-10000	8	95	6.49	60%	-0.08	50.9	1.61%	0	1.7	80	0
8	May_1_2008	23.61	23.58	24.09	24.17			24.8(4.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	29	-10000	6	99	7.59	61%	-0.13	54.3	1.62%	0	2	78	0
9	Apr_30_2008	23.64	23.5	23.95	24.06			23.8(-1.77%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	23	-10000	-2	97	3.28	57%	-0.13	63.3	1.55%	0	0.6	59	0
10	Apr_29_2008	23.67	23.48	23.91	24.1			24.23(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	31	-10000	4	113	2.91	60%	-0.08	71.2	1.53%	0	1.4	67	0

11	Apr_28_2008	23.69	23.42	23.75	24.03			24(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	25	-10000	1	98	10.22	60%	-0.13	65.4	1.53%	0	1.1	63	0
12	Apr_25_2008	23.72	23.34	23.61	24.02			24(-1.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	24	-10000	2	89	5.66	58%	-0.13	57.1	1.53%	0	1.2	60	0
13	Apr_24_2008	23.75	23.26	23.47	23.99			24.29(1.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	28	-10000	10	80	3.31	58%	-0.13	57.2	1.54%	0	1.9	64	0
14	Apr_23_2008	23.78	23.17	23.36	23.81			24(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	-10000	7	62	3.72	58%	-0.08	57.4	1.54%	0	1.7	60	0
15	Apr_22_2008	23.8	23.11	23.25	23.69			23.85(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	24	-10000	15	50	5.08	55%	-0.08	54.8	1.54%	0	1.6	58	0

16	Apr_21_2008	23.82	23.07	23.17	23.42			23.97(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	19	-10000	16	27	5.3	55%	-0.13	55.9	1.56%	0	2.1	64	0
17	Apr_18_2008	23.85	23.02	23.09	23.13			23.82(1.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	14	-10000	14	12	2.76	53%	-0.08	55	1.57%	0	2.1	71	0
18	Apr_17_2008	23.87	22.95	23.02	22.88			23.41(-0.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	1	-10000	2	-3	2.93	52%	-0.13	42.2	1.57%	0	1.2	67	0
19	Apr_16_2008	23.9	22.89	23.01	22.84			23.42(4.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	4	-10000	4	5	4.65	49%	-0.13	35.3	1.58%	0	1.4	64	0
20	Apr_15_2008	23.93	22.86	22.99	22.76			22.5(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-6	-10000	-8	2	4.51	43%	-0.08	35.2	1.51%	0	-1	47	0

21	Apr_14_2008	23.95	22.83	22.99	22.89			22.5(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-3	-10000	-8	11	2.19	45%	-0.17	39.4	1.53%	0	-0.8	39	0
22	Apr_11_2008	23.99	22.81	22.99	23.04			22.59(-2.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-2	-10000	-7	14	7.22	44%	-0.04	46	1.55%	0	-0.5	41	0
23	Apr_10_2008	24	22.8	23.05	23.17			23.21(0.83%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	7	-10000	-1	31	2.21	46%	-0.12	54	1.53%	0	0.9	64	0
24	Apr_9_2008	24.03	22.75	22.99	23.19			23.02(-0.43%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	8	-10000	-3	39	1.92	46%	-0.12	57	1.52%	0	0.6	66	0
25	Apr_8_2008	24.06	22.73	22.96	23.25			23.12(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	12	-10000	1	46	2.2	44%		65.2	1.54%	0	0.8	54	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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