Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 27, 2013

Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Sep. 29, 2011 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF)
XAR latest price $38.5200 (1.77%) ($38.2400 - $38.5400) on Thu. Jun. 27, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.92% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $38.5200(1.77%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XAR advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XAR declines -0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XAR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(79%)    SPY(76%)    PEJ(73%)    XLY(72%)    XLK(67%)
Factors Impacting XAR price   XAR will decline at least -0.46% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-22%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-6%)    GLD(1%)    TIP(2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.46% (StdDev 0.92%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $37.8(1.9%)
10 Day Moving Average   $38.08(1.16%)
20 Day Moving Average   $38.02(1.32%)
To recent high   -0.2%
To recent low   13.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XAR price fluctuates within 1.05% (three month std-dev: 0.92%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130727

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_27_2013	35.71	38.02	38.08	37.8			38.52(1.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.8	-1	-10000	8	-29	0.01	66%	0.17	-19	0.92%	0	1.3	60	0
2	Jun_26_2013	35.65	38.01	38.04	37.67			37.85(1.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-17	-10000	-8	-42	0	64%	0.14	-25.2	0.9%	0	-0.4	54	0
3	Jun_25_2013	35.6	38.02	38.05	37.81			37.31(-0.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-17	-10000	-15	-23	0.01	62%	0.14	-13.6	0.89%	0	-1.8	53	0
4	Jun_24_2013	35.55	38.07	38.17	38.07			37.63(-0.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.2	-5	-10000	-12	15	0	62%	0.14	8.4	0.88%	0	-1.2	50	0
5	Jun_21_2013	35.5	38.08	38.25	38.27			37.71(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.6	7	-10000	-7	48	0	62%	0.14	22.1	0.88%	0	-1	52	0

6	Jun_20_2013	35.45	38.1	38.25	38.38			37.84(-1.92%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.5	11	-10000	-4	54	0	62%	0.14	37	0.89%	0	-0.7	46	0
7	Jun_19_2013	35.4	38.11	38.26	38.45			38.58(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	-10000	8	59	0	67%	0.17	56.5	0.86%	0	1.3	53	0
8	Jun_18_2013	35.34	38.07	38.15	38.32			38.6(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.8	10	-10000	2	32	0	67%	0.14	64.4	0.86%	0	1.6	55	0
9	Jun_17_2013	35.29	38.04	38.06	38.29			38.6(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	7	-10000	2	21	0.01	67%	0.17	86.1	0.86%	0	1.9	53	0
10	Jun_14_2013	35.23	38	37.97	38.25			38.28(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	9	-10000	6	18	0	70%	0.14	102.7	0.92%	0	1	59	0

11	Jun_13_2013	35.18	37.96	37.95	38.14			38.18(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	7	-10000	6	10	0	70%	0.14	100	0.92%	0	0.8	52	0
12	Jun_12_2013	35.13	37.91	37.96	38.04			37.95(-1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	6	-10000	6	6	0	70%	0.11	76.8	0.92%	0	0.1	50	0
13	Jun_11_2013	35.09	37.86	37.98	37.93			38.45(0.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	6	-10000	8	-1	0	74%	0.11	66.7	0.9%	0	1.4	56	0
14	Jun_10_2013	35.05	37.79	37.95	37.79			38.4(1.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	3	-10000	8	-11	0	74%	0.14	62.9	0.9%	0	1.4	55	0
15	Jun_7_2013	35	37.71	37.88	37.65			37.7(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-13	-10000	-6	-33	0	74%	0.17	60.5	0.9%	0	-0	50	0

16	Jun_6_2013	34.94	37.68	37.91	37.75			37.7(0.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-10	-10000	-7	-17	0	75%	0.14	74.8	0.9%	0	0	54	0
17	Jun_5_2013	34.89	37.63	37.94	37.87			37.4(-0.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-4	-10000	-8	10	0.08	75%	0.14	82.3	0.92%	0	-0.4	61	0
18	Jun_4_2013	34.84	37.58	38	38.02			37.75(0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	7	-10000	-6	44	0	78%	0.14	83.8	0.91%	0	0.3	67	0
19	Jun_3_2013	34.79	37.51	38.04	38.13			37.7(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	20	-10000	1	76	0	78%	0.14	84.4	0.91%	0	0.3	67	0
20	May_31_2013	34.74	37.44	38.05	38.12			38.21(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	24	-10000	2	91	0.01	82%	0.14	82.8	0.9%	0	1.1	78	0

21	May_30_2013	34.69	37.32	37.99	38.08			38.29(0.34%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	28	-10000	4	100	0	82%	0.17	75.6	0.9%	0	1.2	80	0
22	May_29_2013	34.63	37.2	37.86	38.02			38.16(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	-10000	2	100	0.02	82%	0.17	76.6	0.91%	0	1.2	82	0
23	May_28_2013	34.57	37.09	37.74	37.99			38.28(1.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	30	-10000	3	111	0	82%	0.2	81	0.91%	0	1.5	88	0
24	May_24_2013	34.5	36.96	37.61	37.94			37.67(-0.87%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	29	-10000	-1	120	0	79%	0.15	85.9	0.9%	0	0.8	86	0
25	May_23_2013	34.45	36.86	37.54	37.96			38(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0	39	-10000	5	139	0	79%		93.5	0.9%	0	1.3	98	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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