Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Feb. 24, 2012

Trading Signals: XAR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Sep. 29, 2011 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF)
XAR latest price $30.8500 (0.75%) ($30.8500 - $31.0300) on Fri. Feb. 24, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.18% (three month average)
RSI   59
Latest Price   $30.8500(0.75%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   XAR advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   XAR advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support XAR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(78%)    SPY(75%)    PEJ(71%)    XLY(71%)    XLK(66%)
Factors Impacting XAR price   XAR will decline at least -0.59% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-23%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-5%)    TIP(1%)    GLD(2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.59% (StdDev 1.18%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $30.73(0.39%)
10 Day Moving Average   $30.69(0.52%)
20 Day Moving Average   $30.41(1.45%)
To recent high   -0.1%
To recent low   19.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. XAR price fluctuates within 1.68% (three month std-dev: 1.18%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_24_2012	28	30.41	30.69	30.73			30.85(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	4	-10000	1	14	0	76%	0.21	62.5	1.18%	0	0.9	59	0
2	Feb_23_2012	27.94	30.34	30.68	30.71			30.62(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	8	-10000	2	25	0	69%	0.22	58.4	1.19%	0	0.5	66	0
3	Feb_22_2012	27.88	30.29	30.69	30.68			30.67(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	8	-10000	1	30	0.02	69%	0.22	59.9	1.23%	0	0.7	64	0
4	Feb_21_2012	27.82	30.23	30.67	30.66			30.76(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	10	-10000	-2	45	0	63%	0.32	59.9	1.23%	0	0.9	75	0
5	Feb_17_2012	27.73	30.16	30.64	30.69			30.76(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	18	-10000	2	67	0	58%	0.22	64.3	1.26%	0	1	77	0

6	Feb_16_2012	27.67	30.09	30.61	30.69			30.76(1.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	19	-10000	0	77	0	58%	0.11	66.8	1.3%	0	1.1	69	0
7	Feb_15_2012	27.64	30.03	30.54	30.65			30.44(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	20	-10000	-2	86	0	58%	0.11	70.5	1.3%	0	0.7	66	0
8	Feb_14_2012	27.61	29.97	30.51	30.7			30.58(-1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	26	-10000	1	99	0	58%	0.15	81.2	1.3%	0	1	65	0
9	Feb_13_2012	27.57	29.89	30.39	30.68			30.89(1.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	29	-10000	4	102	0	58%	0.11	89.9	1.29%	0	1.6	73	0
10	Feb_10_2012	27.54	29.78	30.22	30.59			30.58(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	23	-10000	1	90	0	61%	0.11	95.1	1.31%	0	1.3	71	0

11	Feb_9_2012	27.51	29.71	30.11	30.57			30.78(0.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	31	-10000	9	95	0	56%	0.15	106.9	1.31%	0	1.8	72	0
12	Feb_8_2012	27.47	29.61	29.98	30.4			30.66(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	23	-10000	5	77	0	56%	0.15	113.8	1.36%	0	1.9	69	0
13	Feb_7_2012	27.43	29.47	29.87	30.29			30.51(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	29	-10000	12	79	0	56%	0.11	95.2	1.36%	0	1.7	72	0
14	Feb_6_2012	27.4	29.34	29.75	30.04			30.4(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	25	-10000	12	65	0.05	56%	0.11	77.2	1.36%	0	1.6	73	0
15	Feb_3_2012	27.37	29.21	29.64	29.79			30.48(1.7%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	21	-10000	10	52	0	60%	0.15	62.5	1.36%	0	1.8	77	0

16	Feb_2_2012	27.33	29.08	29.52	29.59			29.97(-0.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	13	-10000	5	37	0	60%	0.11	54	1.4%	0	1.3	63	0
17	Feb_1_2012	27.3	28.99	29.47	29.49			30.07(2.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	12	-10000	4	36	0	53%	0.11	52.3	1.42%	0	1.6	67	0
18	Jan_31_2012	27.27	28.9	29.37	29.4			29.29(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.2	11	-10000	-0	42	0	49%	0.11	54.3	1.56%	0	0.6	74	0
19	Jan_30_2012	27.24	28.83	29.35	29.41			29.13(-1.15%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	13	-10000	-2	57	0	49%	0.07	54.2	1.56%	0	0.5	73	0
20	Jan_27_2012	27.22	28.78	29.32	29.45			29.47(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	19	-10000	0	74	0	54%	0.11	57.9	1.56%	0	1	79	0

21	Jan_26_2012	27.19	28.71	29.28	29.44			29.47(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	22	-10000	-0	88	0	54%	0.11	62.2	1.62%	0	1.1	79	0
22	Jan_25_2012	27.16	28.64	29.23	29.45			29.63(0.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	-10000	4	101	0	58%	0.11	72.2	1.62%	0	1.5	70	0
23	Jan_24_2012	27.13	28.56	29.06	29.35			29.34(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	24	-10000	3	85	0	58%	0.07	80.1	1.72%	0	1.2	67	0
24	Jan_23_2012	27.11	28.49	28.91	29.27			29.34(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	23	-10000	4	80	0.01	58%	0.11	89.9	1.72%	0	1.4	70	0
25	Jan_20_2012	27.08	28.4	28.77	29.16			29.42(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	19	-10000	2	71	0	58%		98.1	1.72%	0	1.7	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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