Trading Signals: ULTA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Apr. 17, 2020

Trading Signals: ULTA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Ulta Beauty Inc)
ULTA latest price $215.4200 (2.98%) ($208.2600 - $222.9400) on Fri. Apr. 17, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.6% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $215.4200(2.98%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ULTA advances 1.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ULTA advances 10.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ULTA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLI(59%)    DIA(55%)    IWD(55%)    IWN(55%)    PEJ(55%)
Factors Impacting ULTA price   ULTA will decline at least -3.3% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-43%)    VXX(-16%)    UUP(-15%)    TLT(-9%)    IGOV(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.3% (StdDev 6.6%)
Hourly BBV 1.3 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $206.7(4.22%)
10 Day Moving Average   $197.67(8.98%)
20 Day Moving Average   $184.5(16.76%)
To recent high   -28.6%
To recent low   66.7%
Market Cap   $12.131b

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a beauty retailer of cosmetics, fragrance, skin care products, hair care products, and salon services. It provides unmatched product breadth, value and convenience in a distinctive specialty retail environment. The company was founded in January 9, 1990 and is headquartered in Bolingbrook, IL.

$. ULTA price fluctuates within 11.09% (three month std-dev: 6.6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 20 Average positive next day return: 3.64%(55%) Average negative next day return: -3.48%(45%) Sample size 20 Average positive next three day return: 5.62%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -6.19%(50%) Sample size 20 Average positive next weekly return: 4.92%(45%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.03%(55%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20200517

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_17_2020	241.98	184.5	197.67	206.7	207.18	211.45	215.42(2.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	91	150	80	125	1.08	47%	-0.12	63.4	6.6%	1.3	1.5	70	1.2
2	Apr_16_2020	242.26	181.09	192.4	204.12	203.56	203.61	209.18(3.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	29	-10	11	81	1.02	47%	-0.11	47.9	6.59%	1.4	1.4	59	1.1
3	Apr_15_2020	242.52	177.19	187.72	202.34	202.94	202.9	201.49(-1.63%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	17	10	2	60	0.97	46%	-0.15	22.3	6.57%	-0.1	1.1	54	1.1
4	Apr_14_2020	242.89	174.81	185.11	199.47	202.41	203.51	204.82(1.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	34	80	25	62	0.91	47%	-0.12	1.3	6.57%	0.2	1.4	62	1.5
5	Apr_13_2020	243.17	172.53	182.37	196.15	199	202.98	202.59(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	56	180	48	81	1	48%	-0.05	-18.7	6.58%	0.1	1.4	74	1.2

6	Apr_9_2020	243.29	172.38	179.39	186.96	194.64	201.3	202.54(1.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	111	360	116	95	1.46	48%	-0.14	-39.5	6.54%	0.6	1.4	70	0.9
7	Apr_8_2020	243.62	171.74	177.54	178.75	182.89	195.02	200.27(7.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	105	530	110	89	1.93	48%	-0.17	-56.7	6.55%	1.4	1.2	70	0.9
8	Apr_7_2020	244.03	172.37	176.32	171.02	173.53	187.97	187.13(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	158	630	170	122	1.87	47%	-0.24	-63.6	6.49%	0.6	0.6	73	0.8
9	Apr_6_2020	244.62	174.53	175.2	168.81	166.43	170.75	188.23(20.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	101	140	101	101	1.93	47%	-0.25	-61.9	6.49%	1.7	0.5	61	0.8
10	Apr_3_2020	245.23	176.52	170.83	167.06	164.73	159.09	156.63(-3.01%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-35	-280	-57	30	1.22	40%	-0.37	-58.1	5.95%	-1.2	-0.6	52	0.1

11	Apr_2_2020	246.13	181.23	170.38	170.66	169.52	162.12	161.49(-0.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-76	-330	-99	-7	1.23	40%	-0.35	-51.7	5.94%	-0.9	-0.5	42	-0.1
12	Apr_1_2020	246.99	185.75	169.28	175.93	173.39	170.37	161.64(-8.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-79	-170	-100	-15	1.18	40%	-0.34	-45.5	5.94%	-2.1	-0.6	45	-0.4
13	Mar_31_2020	247.84	190.83	166.51	182.07	180.03	176.92	176.05(-1.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-14	-150	-15	-10	1.07	42%	-0.28	-41.2	5.91%	-0.4	-0.4	43	-0.1
14	Mar_30_2020	248.53	194.62	164.35	182.31	183.7	176.41	179.49(2.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-43	-250	-36	-63	1.22	42%	-0.25	-41.5	5.91%	-0.4	-0.3	41	-0.3
15	Mar_27_2020	249.15	198.46	162.37	174.97	182.42	183.13	174.61(-7.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-42	150	-17	-115	1.6	42%	-0.29	-46.4	5.9%	-1.3	-0.5	40	-0.6

16	Mar_26_2020	249.87	202.44	165	169.68	174.79	191	187.88(-2.31%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	89	740	147	-87	1.94	44%	-0.24	-51.3	5.84%	0	-0.3	39	-0.3
17	Mar_25_2020	250.46	206.09	165.21	161.54	164.98	181.71	192.32(8.5%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	198	770	290	-77	2.2	44%	-0.22	-56.1	5.83%	1.2	-0.3	40	-0.7
18	Mar_24_2020	251.01	209.88	167.23	148.91	152.88	158.58	177.26(24.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	68	340	151	-180	2	41%	-0.25	-61.7	5.77%	1.6	-0.6	34	-0.6
19	Mar_23_2020	251.63	214.77	172.6	144.38	143.12	148.26	142.8(-3.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-88	230	-14	-309	1.6	30%	-0.37	-63.9	4.82%	-0.8	-1.4	25	-0.8
20	Mar_20_2020	252.57	221.99	181.7	148.11	145.46	147.18	148.15(0.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-33	30	49	-278	3.08	30%	-0.35	-64.6	4.81%	0.7	-1.4	25	-1.5

21	Mar_19_2020	253.46	229.59	192.28	159.88	148.01	137.97	147.15(13.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-222	-700	-184	-337	2.63	30%	-0.38	-61.9	4.81%	0.9	-1.7	26	-1.7
22	Mar_18_2020	254.43	237.44	203.24	169.62	163.99	143.74	129.2(-16.43%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-330	-960	-312	-383	2.36	22%	-0.46	-61.6	4.43%	-1.4	-2.3	15	-2.4
23	Mar_17_2020	255.6	246.17	217.51	188.04	179.72	158.04	154.6(-4.26%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-483	-980	-500	-431	2.3	28%	-0.35	-61.5	3.95%	-1	-2.2	17	-2.2
24	Mar_16_2020	256.51	253.66	228.15	204.92	196.4	184.24	161.48(-21.99%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.2	-386	-560	-399	-348	1.93	29%	-0.32	-59.9	3.95%	-1.9	-2.5	18	-2.7
25	Mar_13_2020	257.34	260.66	238.62	219.83	215.78	201.41	207(5.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-252	-520	-233	-307	2.5	37%		-61.6	2.84%	-0.7	-1.8	23	-1.9
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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