Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Nov. 5, 2014

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $192375.0000 (3.22%) ($185625.0000 - $195625.0000) on Wed. Nov. 5, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.12% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $192375.0000(3.22%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 6.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ advances 9.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
UNG(99%)    XOP(17%)    XLE(13%)    OIH(12%)    USO(12%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -2.56% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-7%)    TLT(-7%)    TIP(-3%)    SHY(-3%)    VIXM(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.56% (StdDev 5.12%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $170150(13.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $154317.03(24.66%)
20 Day Moving Average   $154029.49(24.89%)
To recent high   -7.8%
To recent low   51.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.03%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.03% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 10.65% (three month std-dev: 5.12%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141205

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_5_2014	195619.27	154029.49	154317.03	170150			192375(3.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	48	-10000	24	119	0	49%	-0.78	-1.4	5.12%	0	2.3	63	0
2	Nov_4_2014	197162.2	152329.01	148666.21	160375			186375(8.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	35	-10000	25	63	0	49%	-0.81	-26.6	5.12%	0	2.3	62	0
3	Nov_3_2014	198772.04	151417.47	144044.23	150700			171125(11.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	21	-10000	25	9	0	46%	-0.91	-56.7	5.02%	0	1.5	55	0
4	Oct_31_2014	200588.96	151204.83	140780.49	141875			152875(3.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-7	-10000	11	-59	0	44%	-0.98	-73.7	4.81%	0	0.1	38	0
5	Oct_30_2014	202582.65	152782.53	140522.53	138100			148000(3.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-17	-10000	6	-87	0	44%	-0.78	-75.5	4.83%	0	-0.3	39	0

6	Oct_29_2014	204168.51	154254.7	141160.44	136000			143500(3.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-24	-10000	3	-103	0	44%	-0.81	-74.6	4.84%	0	-0.6	35	0
7	Oct_28_2014	205833.91	156358.98	142254.67	135150			138000(8.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-32	-10000	-4	-116	0	44%	-0.94	-66.1	4.84%	0	-0.9	31	0
8	Oct_27_2014	207796.03	159449.03	144184.62	136450			127000(-5.22%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-39	-10000	-9	-127	0	41%	-1.06	-55.5	4.72%	0	-1.6	15	0
9	Oct_24_2014	210030.88	163121.27	148360.71	139375			134000(-2.55%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-38	-10000	-11	-117	0	45%	-0.98	-49.8	4.71%	0	-1.5	21	0
10	Oct_23_2014	212102.85	165895.44	151393.96	143175			137500(-1.26%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-38	-10000	-11	-117	0	45%	-0.92	-44.5	4.76%	0	-1.5	17	0

11	Oct_22_2014	214063.71	168381.35	154168.41	147050			139250(-3.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-34	-10000	-9	-110	0	43%	-0.85	-41.8	4.76%	0	-1.6	27	0
12	Oct_21_2014	215905.88	170455.04	156727.75	150425			144500(2.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-34	-10000	-8	-111	0	41%	-0.84	-45.1	4.8%	0	-1.6	26	0
13	Oct_20_2014	217727.85	171893.65	159698.9	153175			141625(-7.43%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-40	-10000	-14	-119	0	41%	-0.79	-50.7	4.85%	0	-2	20	0
14	Oct_17_2014	219458.91	173668.99	162765.11	158650			153000(-2.47%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-33	-10000	-6	-115	0	41%	-0.75	-50.6	4.77%	0	-1.5	24	0
15	Oct_16_2014	221119.27	174804.9	166175.55	160850			156875(0.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-29	-10000	-4	-104	0	41%	-0.75	-49.7	4.92%	0	-1.4	35	0

16	Oct_15_2014	222797.3	176188.81	168429.67	162425			156125(-1.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-29	-10000	-4	-103	0	41%	-0.65	-43.2	4.92%	0	-1.5	37	0
17	Oct_14_2014	224245.53	178238.88	171549.73	163975			158250(-6.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-30	-10000	-8	-94	0	41%	-0.3	-39.2	4.94%	0	-1.6	43	0
18	Oct_13_2014	224918.95	180058.63	175818.68	167200			169000(3.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-17	-10000	-1	-63	0	42%	-0.52	-34.1	4.89%	0	-1	53	0
19	Oct_10_2014	226091.15	180889.85	178844.23	167625			164000(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-22	-10000	-12	-51	0	42%	-0.51	-31.4	4.87%	0	-1.5	48	0
20	Oct_9_2014	227253.14	181477.35	181396.15	172500			164750(0.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-11	-10000	-7	-22	0	42%	-0.6	-19.3	4.89%	0	-1.5	49	0

21	Oct_8_2014	228635.79	181999.93	183670.05	175450			163875(-6.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-11	-10000	-11	-12	0	42%	-0.66	-12.9	4.91%	0	-1.7	43	0
22	Oct_7_2014	230149.82	183285.91	185401.1	180200			174375(1.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-11	-10000	-12	-6	0	41%	-0.55	5.3	4.86%	0	-0.9	41	0
23	Oct_6_2014	231424.06	184100.01	185254.4	185775			171125(-9.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.5	-9	-10000	-12	1	0	41%	-0.51	25.6	4.97%	0	-1.4	41	0
24	Oct_3_2014	232617.93	184561.75	185789.01	191700			188375(4.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.3	5	-10000	-0	21	0	44%	-0.46	28.4	4.89%	0	0.4	53	0
25	Oct_2_2014	233698.29	183634.13	184350.55	191725			179500(-4.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.2	3	-10000	-3	21	0	40%		11.6	4.85%	0	-0.4	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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