Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 19, 2013

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $197625.0000 (6.39%) ($197500.0000 - $205749.9800) on Mon. Aug. 19, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.26% (three month average)
RSI   47
Latest Price   $197625.0000(6.39%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 2.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(3%)    EWJ(3%)    EWP(3%)    OIH(3%)    PCY(3%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -2.63% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-3%)    TIP(-2%)    FXI(-2%)    SHY(-1%)    LQD(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.63% (StdDev 5.26%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -3.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $186750(5.82%)
10 Day Moving Average   $180182.42(9.68%)
20 Day Moving Average   $195528.74(1.07%)
To recent high   -53.1%
To recent low   20.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.03%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.03% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 14.23% (three month std-dev: 5.26%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130919

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_19_2013	265912.42	195528.74	180182.42	186750			197625(6.39%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	6	-10000	9	-4	0	65%	-0.26	-53.8	5.26%	0	0.1	47	0
2	Aug_16_2013	266609.23	197762.37	178425.82	182325			185750(-3.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-2	-10000	9	-33	0	59%	-0.77	-51.1	5.31%	0	-0.4	38	0
3	Aug_15_2013	268683.21	201631.71	178057.14	178075			192750(6.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-12	-10000	7	-68	0	59%	-0.82	-47	5.41%	0	-0.3	35	0
4	Aug_14_2013	270902.6	205307.4	177540.93	174975			181250(2.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-22	-10000	6	-104	0	48%	-0.75	-45.1	5.37%	0	-0.7	24	0
5	Aug_13_2013	272958.72	208141.58	179097.53	172250			176375(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-35	-10000	-1	-137	0	48%	-0.67	-47.9	5.43%	0	-0.9	19	0

6	Aug_12_2013	274794.18	211743.52	181341.65	172675			175500(6.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-43	-10000	-3	-161	0	48%	-0.74	-48.3	5.44%	0	-1	18	0
7	Aug_9_2013	276840.09	215299.87	184390.27	174075			164500(-7.19%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-51	-10000	-8	-179	0	30%	-0.76	-50.4	5.37%	0	-1.5	16	0
8	Aug_8_2013	278968.91	219312.92	190240.82	177875			177250(5.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-51	-10000	-6	-186	0	49%	-0.73	-50.9	5.32%	0	-1.3	16	0
9	Aug_7_2013	281018.66	222438.68	196224.33	180550			167625(-6.09%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-59	-10000	-13	-195	0	0%	-0.78	-51.9	5.28%	0	-1.8	8	0
10	Aug_6_2013	283221.46	226637.57	204438.89	186900			178500(-2.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-50	-10000	-9	-171	0	0%	-0.65	-51.4	5.29%	0	-1.7	32	0

11	Aug_5_2013	285077.33	230223.41	212182.02	191299.75			182500(-0.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-47	-10000	-10	-156	0	0%	-0.61	-48.9	5.28%	0	-1.8	30	0
12	Aug_2_2013	286840.09	234143.79	218749.88	196349.75			183500(-3.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-48	-10000	-15	-145	0	100%	-0.59	-44.7	5.28%	0	-2.1	32	0
13	Aug_1_2013	288530.14	237132.67	227252.62	204524.76			190625(-4.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-2	-10000	-1	-4	0	100%	-0.43	-39.8	144.29%	0	-2.1	36	0
14	Jul_31_2013	289776.31	239888.05	235448.5	214449.75			199375(-0.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-2	-10000	-1	-3	0	100%	-0.36	-38.1	145.4%	0	-2.1	41	0
15	Jul_30_2013	290815.85	242389.71	239768	224874.76			200498.75(-3.49%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-1	-10000	-1	-2	0	100%	-0.36	-29.9	145.45%	0	-2.5	38	0

16	Jul_29_2013	291863.06	244227.42	244981.6	236325.01			207750.02(-7.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-0	-10000	-0	-1	0	100%	-0.33	-26.4	145.54%	0	-2.6	40	0
17	Jul_26_2013	292822.24	245632.66	249217.58	244325.01			224375.02(-6.61%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.7	0	-10000	-0	-0	0	100%	-0.22	-32.6	162.6%	0	-1.8	41	0
18	Jul_25_2013	293476.58	246273.62	251278.85	253225			240249.98(-4.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.2	0	-10000	-0	1	0	100%	-0.09	-40.5	163.3%	0	-0.5	54	0
19	Jul_24_2013	293750.81	247460.22	251158.24	259625.01			251500.02(-2.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.7	0	-10000	0	1	0	100%	-0.09	-43.9	163.29%	0	0.3	56	0
20	Jul_23_2013	294013.57	247512.7	250781.59	256950			257750.02(4.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0	-10000	0	0	0	100%	-0.07	-70.4	362.5%	0	0.9	56	0

21	Jul_22_2013	294229.13	247989.64	249594.23	255099.99			247750(-7.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	0	-10000	0	0	0	100%	-0.05	-80.8	362.67%	0	-0	59	0
22	Jul_19_2013	294379.65	249546.54	250550.27	254649.99			268875(-1.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	0	-10000	0	1	0	100%	0	-68.9	362.91%	0	1.3	66	0
23	Jul_18_2013	294369.45	250872.44	247313.73	249100			272250(14.33%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	0	-10000	0	0	0	100%	0.07	-60.8	362.9%	0	1.2	65	0
24	Jul_17_2013	294178.12	252778.59	243900.27	241900			238124.98(-4.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	0	-10000	-0	0	0	100%	-0.07	-49.7	369.4%	0	-0.6	40	0
25	Jul_16_2013	294394.96	256179	244658.79	243775			248499.98(1.22%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	-10000	0	0	0	100%		-37.1	369.26%	0	-0.3	49	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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