Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jul. 18, 2012

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $392000.0000 (15.76%) ($355525.0000 - $398875.0000) on Wed. Jul. 18, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   10.54% (three month average)
RSI   58
Latest Price   $392000.0000(15.76%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 1.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(2%)    EWJ(2%)    EWP(2%)    EWY(2%)    EEM(1%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -5.27% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-7%)    TLT(-2%)    REMX(-2%)    IGOV(-2%)    XLP(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -5.27% (StdDev 10.54%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 9.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $362150(8.24%)
10 Day Moving Average   $361276.76(8.5%)
20 Day Moving Average   $349019.66(12.31%)
To recent high   -7.7%
To recent low   114.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.11%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.11% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 9.25% (three month std-dev: 10.54%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120818

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_18_2012	304313.57	349019.66	361276.76	362150			392000(15.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	4	-10000	4	4	0	61%	0.96	75.4	10.54%	0	1.3	58	0
2	Jul_17_2012	301415.64	343595.39	359343.9	355250			338625(-0.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	2	-10000	2	0	0	58%	0.61	79.1	10.39%	0	-0.1	50	0
3	Jul_16_2012	299590.42	342522.85	362086	352075			341625(-7.51%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-3	-10000	-4	1	0	58%	0.42	93.7	10.46%	0	-0	57	0
4	Jul_13_2012	298328.98	338919.71	364303.59	359300.25			369375(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	7	-10000	3	19	0	58%	0.4	96.5	10.4%	0	0.8	63	0
5	Jul_12_2012	297152.99	334485.08	361604.09	353500			369125(3.25%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	2	-10000	-4	18	0	58%	0.48	98	10.4%	0	0.9	66	0

6	Jul_11_2012	295723.18	326264.95	359615.03	360759.99			357500(10.77%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	8	-10000	-2	39	0	58%	0.31	77.9	10.4%	0	0.6	68	0
7	Jul_10_2012	294798.46	318888.48	359774.33	364859.99			322750(-14.56%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	11	-10000	-4	57	0	55%	0.1	66	10.37%	0	0.1	62	0
8	Jul_9_2012	294510.3	313180.58	360362.64	373075.74			377751.25(10.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	-10000	2	72	0	61%	0.2	58.7	10.32%	0	1.1	62	0
9	Jul_6_2012	293920.12	305530.56	353574.83	369750.49			340373.75(-16.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	20	-10000	-0	80	0	57%	0.22	55.8	10.24%	0	0.6	67	0
10	Jul_5_2012	293277.12	299656.77	349439.88	369795.74			405424.97(7.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	27	-10000	6	89	0	65%	1	50.9	10.09%	0	1.7	72	0

11	Jul_3_2012	290385.84	292212.04	336141.25	358485.75			378000(3.9%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	26	-10000	2	96	0	65%	0.6	50	10.06%	0	1.5	81	0
12	Jul_2_2012	288643.53	286332.56	326500.64	354635.75			363828.75(0.75%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	33	-10000	5	116	0	65%	0.56	49	10.05%	0	1.5	78	0
13	Jun_29_2012	287045.82	281205.81	321124.83	345921			361125(6.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	39	-10000	6	137	0	65%	0.61	38.9	10.02%	0	1.6	78	0
14	Jun_28_2012	285317.54	274738.78	311211.24	335071			340600(-2.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	39	-10000	6	136	0	65%	0.6	20.3	10.22%	0	1.4	70	0
15	Jun_27_2012	283627.77	270613.89	304911.86	325261			348875(-2.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	44	-10000	10	144	0	65%	0.24	-0.4	10.22%	0	1.7	71	0

16	Jun_26_2012	282955.12	266242.93	289998.88	309878.75			358750(12.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	36	-10000	10	112	0	65%	0.28	-24.2	10.21%	0	2.2	63	0
17	Jun_25_2012	282165.59	262363.14	274226.57	294468.75			320255(4.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	20	-10000	1	76	0	61%	0.14	-47.1	10.17%	0	1.6	59	0
18	Jun_22_2012	281764.65	262673.18	262051.79	293167.75			306875(5.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	-10000	6	64	0	61%	0.09	-54.2	10.15%	0	1.1	58	0
19	Jun_21_2012	281497.52	265457.49	253514.93	284042.75			291550(7.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	14	-10000	2	48	0	61%	0.04	-52.6	10.2%	0	0.6	61	0
20	Jun_20_2012	281389.43	270765.18	246061.17	281385.5			271963.75(-3.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	18	-10000	11	39	0	61%	-0.04	-42.7	10.16%	0	0	55	0

21	Jun_19_2012	281491.88	276742.51	244923.84	265890.25			281700(-10.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	14	-10000	13	17	0	61%	0	-40	10.16%	0	0.1	55	0
22	Jun_18_2012	281489.59	281071.05	242907.63	249750.25			313750(20.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	13	-10000	20	-8	0	68%	0.13	-39.9	10.08%	0	0.5	54	0
23	Jun_15_2012	281131.15	285711.19	237315.33	226377.75			261250(-6.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-10	-10000	7	-59	0	59%	-0.08	-39.9	9.8%	0	-0.3	42	0
24	Jun_14_2012	281354.53	291971.7	234612.41	218852.75			278263.75(43.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-14	-10000	12	-93	0	59%	-0.01	-38	9.77%	0	-0.2	40	0
25	Jun_13_2012	281389.65	297054.17	232497.08	206922.5			194487.5(-3.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-54	-10000	-16	-169	0	0%		-37.7	8.12%	0	-1.3	16	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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