Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jul. 9, 2012

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $377751.2500 (10.98%) ($361250.0000 - $378750.0000) on Mon. Jul. 9, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   10.32% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $377751.2500(10.98%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ advances 12.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(2%)    EWJ(2%)    EWP(2%)    EWY(2%)    EEM(1%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -5.16% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-7%)    TLT(-2%)    REMX(-2%)    IGOV(-2%)    XLP(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -5.16% (StdDev 10.32%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 4.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $373075.74(1.25%)
10 Day Moving Average   $360362.64(4.83%)
20 Day Moving Average   $313180.58(20.62%)
To recent high   -11.1%
To recent low   106.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.11%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.11% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 19.38% (three month std-dev: 10.32%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120809

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_9_2012	294510.3	313180.58	360362.64	373075.74			377751.25(10.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	-10000	2	72	0	61%	0.2	58.7	10.32%	0	1.1	62	0
2	Jul_6_2012	293920.12	305530.56	353574.83	369750.49			340373.75(-16.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	20	-10000	-0	80	0	57%	0.22	55.8	10.24%	0	0.6	67	0
3	Jul_5_2012	293277.12	299656.77	349439.88	369795.74			405424.97(7.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	27	-10000	6	89	0	65%	1	50.9	10.09%	0	1.7	72	0
4	Jul_3_2012	290385.84	292212.04	336141.25	358485.75			378000(3.9%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	26	-10000	2	96	0	65%	0.6	50	10.06%	0	1.5	81	0
5	Jul_2_2012	288643.53	286332.56	326500.64	354635.75			363828.75(0.75%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	33	-10000	5	116	0	65%	0.56	49	10.05%	0	1.5	78	0

6	Jun_29_2012	287045.82	281205.81	321124.83	345921			361125(6.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	39	-10000	6	137	0	65%	0.61	38.9	10.02%	0	1.6	78	0
7	Jun_28_2012	285317.54	274738.78	311211.24	335071			340600(-2.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	39	-10000	6	136	0	65%	0.6	20.3	10.22%	0	1.4	70	0
8	Jun_27_2012	283627.77	270613.89	304911.86	325261			348875(-2.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	44	-10000	10	144	0	65%	0.24	-0.4	10.22%	0	1.7	71	0
9	Jun_26_2012	282955.12	266242.93	289998.88	309878.75			358750(12.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	36	-10000	10	112	0	65%	0.28	-24.2	10.21%	0	2.2	63	0
10	Jun_25_2012	282165.59	262363.14	274226.57	294468.75			320255(4.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	20	-10000	1	76	0	61%	0.14	-47.1	10.17%	0	1.6	59	0

11	Jun_22_2012	281764.65	262673.18	262051.79	293167.75			306875(5.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	-10000	6	64	0	61%	0.09	-54.2	10.15%	0	1.1	58	0
12	Jun_21_2012	281497.52	265457.49	253514.93	284042.75			291550(7.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	14	-10000	2	48	0	61%	0.04	-52.6	10.2%	0	0.6	61	0
13	Jun_20_2012	281389.43	270765.18	246061.17	281385.5			271963.75(-3.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	18	-10000	11	39	0	61%	-0.04	-42.7	10.16%	0	0	55	0
14	Jun_19_2012	281491.88	276742.51	244923.84	265890.25			281700(-10.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	14	-10000	13	17	0	61%	0	-40	10.16%	0	0.1	55	0
15	Jun_18_2012	281489.59	281071.05	242907.63	249750.25			313750(20.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	13	-10000	20	-8	0	68%	0.13	-39.9	10.08%	0	0.5	54	0

16	Jun_15_2012	281131.15	285711.19	237315.33	226377.75			261250(-6.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-10	-10000	7	-59	0	59%	-0.08	-39.9	9.8%	0	-0.3	42	0
17	Jun_14_2012	281354.53	291971.7	234612.41	218852.75			278263.75(43.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-14	-10000	12	-93	0	59%	-0.01	-38	9.77%	0	-0.2	40	0
18	Jun_13_2012	281389.65	297054.17	232497.08	206922.5			194487.5(-3.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-54	-10000	-16	-169	0	0%	-0.35	-37.7	8.12%	0	-1.3	16	0
19	Jun_12_2012	282388.53	304573.19	240261.58	221250			201000(2.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-54	-10000	-14	-173	0	0%	-0.33	-34.9	8.19%	0	-1.4	19	0
20	Jun_11_2012	283334.91	310531.02	249649.44	234775			196887.5(-11.96%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-53	-10000	-14	-170	0	0%	-0.36	-31.3	8.23%	0	-1.6	24	0

21	Jun_8_2012	284351.93	318309.91	263887.28	249222.5			223625(2.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-43	-10000	-3	-163	0	0%	-0.25	-24.2	8.12%	0	-1.4	23	0
22	Jun_7_2012	285074.87	324180.21	278901.28	251892.25			218612.5(-17.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-47	-10000	-9	-161	0	0%	-0.28	-21.6	8.11%	0	-1.7	28	0
23	Jun_6_2012	285875.62	330102.84	298098.56	261219.75			266125(-0.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-37	-10000	-1	-145	0	0%	-0.08	-14.6	7.83%	0	-1.1	34	0
24	Jun_5_2012	286116.49	333225.6	311413.68	262194.75			268625(-0.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-37	-10000	-5	-132	0	100%	-0.08	-12.8	7.83%	0	-1.2	44	0
25	Jun_4_2012	286332.43	334481.92	322380.24	267519.75			269125(13.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-4	-10000	-1	-12	0	100%		-9.6	74.63%	0	-1.2	49	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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