Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Jun. 22, 2012

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $306875.0000 (5.26%) ($289125.0000 - $316375.0000) on Fri. Jun. 22, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   10.15% (three month average)
RSI   58
Latest Price   $306875.0000(5.26%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 3.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ advances 10.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(2%)    EWJ(2%)    EWP(2%)    EWY(2%)    EEM(1%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -5.075% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-7%)    TLT(-2%)    REMX(-2%)    IGOV(-2%)    XLP(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -5.075% (StdDev 10.15%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 6%

5 Day Moving Average   $293167.75(4.68%)
10 Day Moving Average   $262051.79(17.1%)
20 Day Moving Average   $262673.18(16.83%)
To recent high   -27.8%
To recent low   67.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.1%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.1% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 14.86% (three month std-dev: 10.15%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120722

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_22_2012	281764.65	262673.18	262051.79	293167.75			306875(5.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	-10000	6	64	0	61%	0.09	-54.2	10.15%	0	1.1	58	0
2	Jun_21_2012	281497.52	265457.49	253514.93	284042.75			291550(7.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	14	-10000	2	48	0	61%	0.04	-52.6	10.2%	0	0.6	61	0
3	Jun_20_2012	281389.43	270765.18	246061.17	281385.5			271963.75(-3.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	18	-10000	11	39	0	61%	-0.04	-42.7	10.16%	0	0	55	0
4	Jun_19_2012	281491.88	276742.51	244923.84	265890.25			281700(-10.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	14	-10000	13	17	0	61%	0	-40	10.16%	0	0.1	55	0
5	Jun_18_2012	281489.59	281071.05	242907.63	249750.25			313750(20.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	13	-10000	20	-8	0	68%	0.13	-39.9	10.08%	0	0.5	54	0

6	Jun_15_2012	281131.15	285711.19	237315.33	226377.75			261250(-6.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-10	-10000	7	-59	0	59%	-0.08	-39.9	9.8%	0	-0.3	42	0
7	Jun_14_2012	281354.53	291971.7	234612.41	218852.75			278263.75(43.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-14	-10000	12	-93	0	59%	-0.01	-38	9.77%	0	-0.2	40	0
8	Jun_13_2012	281389.65	297054.17	232497.08	206922.5			194487.5(-3.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-54	-10000	-16	-169	0	0%	-0.35	-37.7	8.12%	0	-1.3	16	0
9	Jun_12_2012	282388.53	304573.19	240261.58	221250			201000(2.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-54	-10000	-14	-173	0	0%	-0.33	-34.9	8.19%	0	-1.4	19	0
10	Jun_11_2012	283334.91	310531.02	249649.44	234775			196887.5(-11.96%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-53	-10000	-14	-170	0	0%	-0.36	-31.3	8.23%	0	-1.6	24	0

11	Jun_8_2012	284351.93	318309.91	263887.28	249222.5			223625(2.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-43	-10000	-3	-163	0	0%	-0.25	-24.2	8.12%	0	-1.4	23	0
12	Jun_7_2012	285074.87	324180.21	278901.28	251892.25			218612.5(-17.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-47	-10000	-9	-161	0	0%	-0.28	-21.6	8.11%	0	-1.7	28	0
13	Jun_6_2012	285875.62	330102.84	298098.56	261219.75			266125(-0.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-37	-10000	-1	-145	0	0%	-0.08	-14.6	7.83%	0	-1.1	34	0
14	Jun_5_2012	286116.49	333225.6	311413.68	262194.75			268625(-0.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-37	-10000	-5	-132	0	100%	-0.08	-12.8	7.83%	0	-1.2	44	0
15	Jun_4_2012	286332.43	334481.92	322380.24	267519.75			269125(13.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-4	-10000	-1	-12	0	100%	-0.08	-9.6	74.63%	0	-1.2	49	0

16	Jun_1_2012	286547.52	335045.57	337653.66	282026.5			236973.73(-10.66%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-4	-10000	-2	-10	0	90%	-0.22	-0.1	74.62%	0	-1.8	40	0
17	May_31_2012	287175.04	338123.95	354113.27	310631.75			265250(-2.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-3	-10000	-2	-5	0	100%	-0.1	21.8	75.78%	0	-1.4	45	0
18	May_30_2012	287456.13	338551.63	367140.6	340856.76			271000(-8.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	-2	-10000	-2	-0	0	90%	-0.07	42	75.76%	0	-1.3	47	0
19	May_29_2012	287669.85	340378.45	375163.56	367731.76			295250(-13.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	0	-10000	-1	4	0	91%	0.03	70.9	76.29%	0	-0.9	51	0
20	May_25_2012	287570.11	339745.24	378042.01	384486.76			341658.75(-10.09%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	1	-10000	-1	7	0	84%	0.25	82.8	75.47%	0	0	64	0

21	May_24_2012	286848.93	335122.47	378831.79	401105.01			380000(-8.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	3	-10000	-0	11	0	84%	0.44	92.2	76.03%	0	0.8	72	0
22	May_23_2012	285590.13	327351.69	374324.18	403930.01			416375.03(2.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	4	-10000	0	14	0	84%	0.63	96.4	76.06%	0	1.4	73	0
23	May_22_2012	283798.55	318171.1	365053.99	398130			405375(6.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	5	-10000	1	16	0	84%	0.6	97	76.05%	0	1.4	75	0
24	May_21_2012	282109.99	308051.44	356397.54	384257.5			379025(-10.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	5	-10000	1	15	0	84%	0.49	91.6	76.11%	0	1.2	63	0
25	May_18_2012	280744.99	299897.63	346969.34	369952.5			424750(7.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	4	-10000	1	13	0	84%		81.7	76.13%	0	2	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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