Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 17, 2012

Trading Signals: UGAZ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - Mon. Jul. 13, 2020)

(VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN)
UGAZ latest price $394125.0000 (1.74%) ($336750.0000 - $404374.9700) on Thu. May. 17, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   76.75% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $394125.0000(1.74%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   UGAZ advances 3.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   UGAZ advances 14.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support UGAZ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(2%)    EWJ(2%)    EWP(2%)    EWY(2%)    EEM(1%)
Factors Impacting UGAZ price   UGAZ will decline at least -38.375% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-7%)    TLT(-2%)    REMX(-2%)    IGOV(-2%)    XLP(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -38.375% (StdDev 76.75%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 5.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $353352.5(11.54%)
10 Day Moving Average   $330847.45(19.13%)
20 Day Moving Average   $287849.36(36.92%)
To recent high   -7%
To recent low   593.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -5.89%

$. UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 5.89% a day on average for holding it.$. UGAZ price fluctuates within 20.81% (three month std-dev: 76.75%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120617

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_17_2012	278687.78	287849.36	330847.45	353352.5			394125(1.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	4	-10000	1	12	0	84%	0.6	75.1	76.75%	0	1.8	74	0
2	May_16_2012	277014.77	277188.58	319263.25	340658			387375(15.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	4	-10000	1	12	0	85%	0.59	69.5	76.75%	0	1.9	76	0
3	May_15_2012	275391.83	267341.61	305978.34	328033			336012.5(9.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	3	-10000	0	11	0	83%	0.33	66.1	76.94%	0	1.3	68	0
4	May_14_2012	274487.04	260388.91	301636.51	324755.5			307500(-10.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	4	-10000	0	14	0	83%	0.18	64.1	77.03%	0	0.9	71	0
5	May_11_2012	273986.85	255756.72	298145.61	319330.5			341750(3.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	5	-10000	1	16	0	83%	0.38	57.3	76.39%	0	1.7	72	0

6	May_10_2012	272944.34	248956.01	287943.12	304055.5			330652.5(1.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	5	-10000	1	15	0	83%	0.33	47.2	77%	0	1.8	75	0
7	May_9_2012	272042.65	242719.52	276842.77	294230			324250(1.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	5	-10000	1	15	0	83%	0.31	37.7	77%	0	1.9	75	0
8	May_8_2012	271213.96	236819.51	267641.27	280780.25			319625(14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	4	-10000	0	14	0	83%	0.29	22.7	76.99%	0	2.2	71	0
9	May_7_2012	270433.13	231759.54	255835.97	275962.75			280375(5.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	4	-10000	0	14	0	83%	0.06	15.1	77.62%	0	1.5	67	0
10	May_4_2012	270270.15	230209.37	249395.21	273988			265375(-5.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	4	-10000	0	15	0	83%	-0.03	13.4	78.26%	0	1.1	60	0

11	May_3_2012	270351.74	229103.54	241970.65	268818			281525(9.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	4	-10000	1	13	0	83%	0.07	5.1	78.9%	0	1.7	64	0
12	May_2_2012	270162.36	227866.39	232181.21	256163			257001.25(-13.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	3	-10000	0	10	0	83%	-0.08	-15.7	79.58%	0	1	61	0
13	May_1_2012	270389.28	228637.56	226039.15	251582.75			295537.5(9.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	4	-10000	2	9	0	83%	0.16	-26.3	80.22%	0	2.1	67	0
14	Apr_30_2012	269948.08	226936.27	215712.53	232805.25			270501.25(12.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	2	-10000	1	4	0	83%	0	-53.8	80.93%	0	1.5	59	0
15	Apr_27_2012	269938.2	226060.68	209600.61	221752.5			239525.02(9.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	1	-10000	1	1	0	83%	-0.2	-78.9	81.66%	0	0.5	45	0

16	Apr_26_2012	270491.17	227540.79	206425.03	211297.5			218249.98(-6.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	-10000	1	-3	0	83%	-0.36	-93.4	82.41%	0	-0.3	43	0
17	Apr_25_2012	271458.6	232633.41	205606.87	204247.5			234100.02(16.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-1	-10000	1	-5	0	83%	-0.26	-88.3	83.16%	0	0	42	0
18	Apr_24_2012	272163.48	237188.26	203088.65	196502.5			201650(-6.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-2	-10000	0	-9	0	83%	-0.5	-86.1	83.95%	0	-0.8	28	0
19	Apr_23_2012	273519.51	243926.63	205457.03	195847.5			215237.5(14.95%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-3	-10000	-0	-10	0	83%	-0.42	-84.4	84.74%	0	-0.6	33	0
20	Apr_20_2012	274662.29	251340.78	209118.84	196075			187250(2.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-3	-10000	-1	-10	0	83%	-0.63	-77.3	85.58%	0	-1.2	26	0

21	Apr_19_2012	276410.54	260220.57	215246.03	200975			183000(-6.33%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-3	-10000	-1	-10	0	83%	-0.68	-73.6	86.44%	0	-1.3	21	0
22	Apr_18_2012	278316.87	271189.51	223554.37	206800			195375(-1.51%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-3	-10000	-0	-10	0	83%	-0.62	-66.3	87.3%	0	-1.2	18	0
23	Apr_17_2012	280044.83	281635.12	231964.86	210349.75			198375(-8.32%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-4	-10000	-1	-11	0	83%	-0.62	-62.3	88.21%	0	-1.3	17	0
24	Apr_16_2012	281782.49	292451.63	239552.54	216174.75			216375(2.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-4	-10000	-1	-11	0	83%	-0.5	-56.7	89.12%	0	-1.1	19	0
25	Apr_13_2012	283204.39	302082.6	244162.37	224524.75			211750(-0.18%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-4	-10000	-1	-12	0	83%		-53.1	90.09%	0	-1.3	14	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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