Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 17, 2013

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 31, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $119.1200 (-1%) ($118.7500 - $119.5500) on Thu. Jan. 17, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.77% (three month average)
RSI   34
Latest Price   $119.1200(-1%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(72%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(25%)    IGOV(20%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.385% in a week (0% probabilities).
XOP(-27%)    OIH(-26%)    SPY(-25%)    EWP(-25%)    EWI(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.385% (StdDev 0.77%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.2%

Resistance Level   $120.23
5 Day Moving Average   $119.78(-0.55%)
10 Day Moving Average   $119.32(-0.17%)
20 Day Moving Average   $120.23(-0.92%)
To recent high   -6%
To recent low   1%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.3% (three month std-dev: 0.77%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130217

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_17_2013	122.89	120.23	119.32	119.78			119.12(-1%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-6	-10000	2	-29	7.02	43%	-0.05	-37.7	0.77%	0	-0.7	34	0
2	Jan_16_2013	122.95	120.31	119.21	119.71			120.32(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-10	-10000	5	-56	4.29	42%	-0.05	-50	0.77%	0	0	39	0
3	Jan_15_2013	123.01	120.37	119.12	119.47			120.07(0.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-17	-10000	4	-79	5.36	42%	-0.05	-64.1	0.79%	0	-0.2	39	0
4	Jan_14_2013	123.07	120.53	119.2	119.3			119.52(-0.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-20	-10000	5	-93	3.07	42%	-0.04	-68.5	0.78%	0	-0.6	36	0
5	Jan_11_2013	123.12	120.69	119.53	119.09			119.85(0.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-18	-10000	6	-88	4.77	42%	-0.05	-75.2	0.79%	0	-0.5	45	0

6	Jan_10_2013	123.18	120.82	119.78	118.8			118.79(-0.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-20	-10000	4	-92	5.6	40%	-0.04	-84.8	0.78%	0	-1.2	41	0
7	Jan_9_2013	123.23	121.08	120.11	118.63			119.12(-0.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-24	-10000	-2	-91	3.87	40%	-0.03	-93.7	0.79%	0	-1.1	45	0
8	Jan_8_2013	123.27	121.36	120.39	118.72			119.23(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-29	-10000	-8	-91	4.38	40%	-0.02	-89.1	0.79%	0	-1.2	39	0
9	Jan_7_2013	123.3	121.62	120.69	119.11			118.45(0.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-39	-10000	-21	-92	4.2	40%	-0.02	-80.1	0.79%	0	-1.7	29	0
10	Jan_4_2013	123.33	121.97	120.97	120.08			118.4(0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-29	-10000	-17	-66	9.57	36%	-0.02	-67.1	0.81%	0	-1.9	35	0

11	Jan_3_2013	123.36	122.32	121.25	120.92			117.94(-1.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-25	-10000	-17	-47	10.01	36%	-0.03	-55.3	0.82%	0	-2.4	33	0
12	Jan_2_2013	123.4	122.71	121.56	121.77			119.56(-1.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-17	-10000	-10	-36	7.47	38%	-0.06	-48.5	0.8%	0	-1.9	33	0
13	Dec_31_2012	123.47	122.97	121.8	122.27			121.18(-1.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-12	-10000	-4	-36	6.42	40%	-0.03	-43	0.78%	0	-1.1	33	0
14	Dec_28_2012	123.51	123.15	122.03	122.48			123.31(0.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	0	-10000	10	-30	3.93	43%	-0.02	-37.8	0.75%	0	0.1	43	0
15	Dec_27_2012	123.53	123.23	121.94	122			122.61(0.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-12	-10000	7	-67	4.26	43%	-0.02	-43.5	0.75%	0	-0.4	35	0

16	Dec_26_2012	123.56	123.35	121.93	121.66			122.2(0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-19	-10000	7	-96	2.25	46%	-0.06	-45.9	0.75%	0	-0.7	34	0
17	Dec_24_2012	123.64	123.51	122.09	121.33			122.03(-0.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-29	-10000	1	-117	1.07	48%	-0.04	-53.7	0.77%	0	-0.9	33	0
18	Dec_21_2012	123.69	123.65	122.35	121.27			122.25(1.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-35	-10000	-6	-122	6.09	48%	-0.06	-60.3	0.78%	0	-0.9	39	0
19	Dec_20_2012	123.77	123.75	122.55	121.54			120.93(0.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-36	-10000	-8	-120	4.57	46%	-0.06	-62.6	0.76%	0	-1.7	31	0
20	Dec_19_2012	123.85	123.94	123.01	121.89			120.91(0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-32	-10000	-7	-106	4.88	46%	-0.07	-69.7	0.77%	0	-2	30	0

21	Dec_18_2012	123.94	124.13	123.46	122.23			120.51(-1.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-36	-10000	-15	-98	12.02	46%	-0.07	-81	0.77%	0	-2.8	28	0
22	Dec_17_2012	124.03	124.4	123.96	122.93			121.75(-1.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-29	-10000	-14	-75	6.87	50%	-0.06	-86.7	0.76%	0	-2.6	30	0
23	Dec_14_2012	124.1	124.63	124.28	123.58			123.6(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-15	-10000	-3	-51	3.83	48%	-0.06	-77	0.75%	0	-1.1	43	0
24	Dec_13_2012	124.18	124.77	124.4	123.74			122.68(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-19	-10000	-11	-42	6.38	46%	-0.07	-66.2	0.82%	0	-2.2	42	0
25	Dec_12_2012	124.27	124.98	124.66	124.32			122.59(-1.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-13	-10000	-11	-20	7.12	44%		-39.2	0.82%	0	-2.6	41	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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