Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Oct. 25, 2012

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. Jun. 6, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $120.8600 (-0.51%) ($120.3300 - $121.5400) on Thu. Oct. 25, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.9% (three month average)
RSI   50
Latest Price   $120.8600(-0.51%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(72%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(25%)    IGOV(20%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.45% in a week (0% probabilities).
XOP(-28%)    OIH(-26%)    SPY(-25%)    EWP(-25%)    EWI(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.45% (StdDev 0.9%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

Resistance Level   $122.44
5 Day Moving Average   $121.55(-0.57%)
10 Day Moving Average   $121.79(-0.76%)
20 Day Moving Average   $122.44(-1.29%)
To recent high   -8.6%
To recent low   2.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.1% (three month std-dev: 0.9%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121125

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_25_2012	125.13	122.44	121.79	121.55			120.86(-0.51%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.5	-3	-10000	3	-22	5.29	31%	-0.03	-35.5	0.9%	0	-1.2	50	0
2	Oct_24_2012	125.17	122.61	122.07	121.4			121.48(-0.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-4	-10000	2	-23	6.82	31%	-0.05	-29.2	0.9%	0	-0.8	46	0
3	Oct_23_2012	125.23	122.78	122.2	121.27			122.69(1.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-6	-10000	3	-34	5.76	33%	-0.06	-19.6	0.9%	0	-0.1	43	0
4	Oct_22_2012	125.3	122.83	122.12	121.13			120.96(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-22	-10000	-10	-57	6.91	29%	-0.08	-11.6	0.88%	0	-1.4	37	0
5	Oct_19_2012	125.4	122.83	122.26	121.67			121.74(1.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-19	-10000	-8	-50	7.62	32%	-0.05	9.2	0.89%	0	-0.9	38	0

6	Oct_18_2012	125.46	122.92	122.22	122.12			120.11(-0.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-24	-10000	-13	-56	8.56	29%	-0.05	29.1	0.87%	0	-2.1	32	0
7	Oct_17_2012	125.52	123.01	122.5	122.83			120.85(-0.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-15	-10000	-7	-40	6.93	29%	-0.02	46.6	0.87%	0	-1.7	34	0
8	Oct_16_2012	125.54	123.05	122.85	122.83			121.98(-1.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-7	-10000	0	-29	5.4	30%	-0.02	50.5	0.87%	0	-0.8	34	0
9	Oct_15_2012	125.57	122.99	123.07	123.22			123.69(-0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-2	-10000	6	-26	3.04	31%	0	35.8	0.86%	0	0.5	50	0
10	Oct_12_2012	125.57	122.8	123.12	122.91			123.97(0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	2	-10000	11	-24	4.93	31%	0.01	14.1	0.86%	0	0.7	58	0

11	Oct_11_2012	125.56	122.53	123.13	122.35			123.66(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-5	-10000	4	-31	5.19	31%	0	-10	0.86%	0	0.7	61	0
12	Oct_10_2012	125.56	122.42	123.16	122.16			122.81(0.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-12	-10000	-6	-28	5.43	31%	0	-20.9	0.86%	0	0.2	59	0
13	Oct_9_2012	125.56	122.38	123.37	122.46			121.95(-0.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-7	-10000	-9	-0	4.75	34%	-0.02	-28.4	0.85%	0	-0.2	57	0
14	Oct_8_2012	125.58	122.46	123.56	122.92			122.17(0.84%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	2	-10000	-8	32	1.57	34%	-0.02	-30.6	0.86%	0	-0.2	62	0
15	Oct_5_2012	125.6	122.56	123.62	123.37			121.15(-1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.2	7	-10000	-11	61	8.34	36%	-0.02	-32.2	0.86%	0	-0.8	62	0

16	Oct_4_2012	125.63	122.7	123.71	123.98			122.74(-1.25%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	22	-10000	-5	103	6.21	38%	0.01	-27	0.85%	0	0	77	0
17	Oct_3_2012	125.62	122.79	123.61	124.27			124.29(0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	27	-10000	-3	116	3.8	40%	0.02	-22.7	0.84%	0	0.8	61	0
18	Oct_2_2012	125.59	122.88	123.31	124.42			124.25(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	32	-10000	2	120	3.54	40%	0.02	-17.4	0.85%	0	0.6	58	0
19	Oct_1_2012	125.56	123	122.94	124.31			124.42(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	31	-10000	7	104	4.84	40%	0.04	-14.9	0.85%	0	0.6	51	0
20	Sep_28_2012	125.51	123.13	122.48	123.92			124.22(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	25	-10000	10	69	7.17	38%	0.05	-13.1	0.87%	0	0.4	47	0

21	Sep_27_2012	125.45	123.2	121.9	123.39			124.15(-0.71%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	14	-10000	10	24	5.15	38%	0.04	-16.7	0.87%	0	0.4	48	0
22	Sep_26_2012	125.4	123.24	121.62	122.84			125.04(1.08%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	10	-10000	15	-7	7.19	38%	0.05	-21.5	0.87%	0	0.7	48	0
23	Sep_25_2012	125.34	123.26	121.26	122.06			123.71(0.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-5	-10000	13	-58	5.89	39%	0.05	-23.9	0.86%	0	0.2	37	0
24	Sep_24_2012	125.28	123.33	121.2	121.38			122.5(0.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-17	-10000	11	-100	3.63	36%	0.03	-24.5	0.87%	0	-0.3	30	0
25	Sep_21_2012	125.24	123.45	121.33	120.82			121.55(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-25	-10000	12	-135	4.14	34%		-25	0.87%	0	-0.7	25	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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