Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Sep. 26, 2012

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $125.0400 (1.08%) ($124.4500 - $125.0900) on Wed. Sep. 26, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.87% (three month average)
RSI   48
Latest Price   $125.0400(1.08%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(24%)    IGOV(20%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.435% in a week (0% probabilities).
XOP(-28%)    OIH(-26%)    SPY(-25%)    EWP(-25%)    EWI(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.435% (StdDev 0.87%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $122.84(1.79%)
10 Day Moving Average   $121.62(2.81%)
20 Day Moving Average   $123.24(1.46%)
To recent high   -5.4%
To recent low   5.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 2.05% (three month std-dev: 0.87%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121026

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_26_2012	125.4	123.24	121.62	122.84			125.04(1.08%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	10	-10000	15	-7	7.19	38%	0.05	-21.5	0.87%	0	0.7	48	0
2	Sep_25_2012	125.34	123.26	121.26	122.06			123.71(0.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-5	-10000	13	-58	5.89	39%	0.05	-23.9	0.86%	0	0.2	37	0
3	Sep_24_2012	125.28	123.33	121.2	121.38			122.5(0.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-17	-10000	11	-100	3.63	36%	0.03	-24.5	0.87%	0	-0.3	30	0
4	Sep_21_2012	125.24	123.45	121.33	120.82			121.55(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-25	-10000	12	-135	4.14	34%	0.04	-25	0.87%	0	-0.7	25	0
5	Sep_20_2012	125.19	123.62	121.55	120.17			121.41(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-43	-10000	-0	-170	4.6	34%	0.03	-25.7	0.88%	0	-0.9	35	0

6	Sep_19_2012	125.15	123.78	121.84	120.2			121.11(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-47	-10000	-3	-177	5.9	33%	0.04	-22.5	0.88%	0	-1.1	37	0
7	Sep_18_2012	125.1	123.87	122.37	120.38			120.32(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-52	-10000	-12	-172	5.37	33%	0.02	-23.5	0.89%	0	-1.4	32	0
8	Sep_17_2012	125.07	123.98	123.05	121.02			119.72(1.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-50	-10000	-17	-150	5.57	33%	0.02	-23.8	0.89%	0	-1.8	32	0
9	Sep_14_2012	125.05	124.11	123.85	121.94			118.3(-2.66%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-44	-10000	-21	-113	16.87	30%	0.02	-22.1	0.88%	0	-2.6	30	0
10	Sep_13_2012	125.03	124.3	124.66	123.09			121.53(-0.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-28	-10000	-12	-77	12.28	36%	0.04	-19.1	0.82%	0	-1.4	37	0

11	Sep_12_2012	124.98	124.35	125.07	123.71			122.01(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-28	-10000	-18	-56	7.04	36%	0.04	-17.5	0.83%	0	-1.2	42	0
12	Sep_11_2012	124.93	124.45	125.48	124.65			123.55(-0.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-13	-10000	-15	-7	3.52	38%	0.04	-9.4	0.82%	0	-0.5	59	0
13	Sep_10_2012	124.88	124.55	125.71	125.4			124.33(0.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-0	-10000	-13	38	4.91	38%	0.06	-2.7	0.82%	0	-0.1	65	0
14	Sep_7_2012	124.8	124.61	125.78	126.08			124.03(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	15	-10000	-7	81	7.34	38%	0.06	3.3	0.82%	0	-0.3	65	0
15	Sep_6_2012	124.73	124.67	125.9	126.46			124.61(-1.67%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	28	-10000	-3	120	6.51	35%	0.06	-2	0.81%	0	-0	70	0

16	Sep_5_2012	124.65	124.69	125.91	126.6			126.72(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	37	-10000	3	139	3.47	35%	0.08	-8.6	0.83%	0	1.1	73	0
17	Sep_4_2012	124.55	124.63	125.5	126.42			127.32(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	38	-10000	7	130	6.01	35%	0.15	-20.9	0.84%	0	1.5	64	0
18	Aug_31_2012	124.36	124.6	124.97	126.07			127.72(1.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	33	-10000	11	99	9.19	43%	0.1	-30.3	0.88%	0	1.6	55	0
19	Aug_30_2012	124.23	124.56	124.35	125.48			125.94(0.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	18	-10000	4	60	3.89	45%	0.08	-38.6	0.88%	0	0.7	48	0
20	Aug_29_2012	124.13	124.7	123.87	125.28			125.29(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	10	-10000	3	32	3.76	45%	0.07	-41.6	0.93%	0	0.3	49	0

21	Aug_28_2012	124.04	124.85	123.55	125.11			125.84(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	13	-10000	12	16	3.41	45%	0.08	-46.7	0.93%	0	0.4	51	0
22	Aug_27_2012	123.94	125.01	123.31	124.42			125.54(0.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	7	-10000	13	-13	3.91	45%	0.02	-54.5	0.93%	0	0.2	46	0
23	Aug_24_2012	123.92	125.18	123.25	123.68			124.81(-0.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-3	-10000	11	-45	5	45%	0.1	-63.3	0.93%	0	-0.1	36	0
24	Aug_23_2012	123.8	125.35	123.3	123.04			124.93(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-7	-10000	14	-71	7.14	45%	0.11	-67.1	0.93%	0	-0.1	37	0
25	Aug_22_2012	123.67	125.63	123.28	122.25			124.41(1.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-23	-10000	8	-117	11.38	44%		-64.8	0.94%	0	-0.4	28	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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