Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 23, 2012

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $124.9300 (0.42%) ($124.6500 - $125.1400) on Thu. Aug. 23, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
RSI   37
Latest Price   $124.9300(0.42%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(71%)    LQD(55%)    SHY(34%)    GLD(24%)    IGOV(20%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.465% in a week (0% probabilities).
XOP(-28%)    OIH(-26%)    SPY(-25%)    EWP(-25%)    EWI(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.465% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $119.83(-4.08%)
Resistance Level   $125.35
5 Day Moving Average   $123.04(1.54%)
10 Day Moving Average   $123.3(1.32%)
20 Day Moving Average   $125.35(-0.34%)
To recent high   -5.5%
To recent low   3.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 2.34% (three month std-dev: 0.93%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120923

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_23_2012	123.8	125.35	123.3	123.04			124.93(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-7	-10000	14	-71	7.14	45%	0.11	-67.1	0.93%	0	-0.1	37	0
2	Aug_22_2012	123.67	125.63	123.28	122.25			124.41(1.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-23	-10000	8	-117	11.38	44%	0.11	-64.8	0.94%	0	-0.4	28	0
3	Aug_21_2012	123.53	125.99	123.32	121.78			122.39(0.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-43	-10000	-5	-157	9.53	40%	0.08	-61.3	0.92%	0	-1.1	23	0
4	Aug_20_2012	123.43	126.46	123.65	122.06			121.85(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-53	-10000	-13	-173	4.43	40%	0.08	-55.9	0.92%	0	-1.4	18	0
5	Aug_17_2012	123.33	126.91	124.2	122.79			121.6(0.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-52	-10000	-14	-165	6.34	44%	0.06	-51.6	0.92%	0	-1.6	19	0

6	Aug_16_2012	123.25	127.35	124.78	123.61			121.01(-0.85%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-47	-10000	-14	-145	13.24	44%	0.06	-47.5	0.95%	0	-2.1	22	0
7	Aug_15_2012	123.18	127.76	125.64	124.42			122.05(-1.41%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-41	-10000	-11	-131	11.19	44%	0.07	-48.1	0.94%	0	-2.1	19	0
8	Aug_14_2012	123.09	128.12	126.32	125.04			123.79(-1.35%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-38	-10000	-7	-132	7.99	48%	0.1	-48.3	0.92%	0	-1.9	20	0
9	Aug_13_2012	122.97	128.39	126.91	125.45			125.49(-0.17%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	0	-39	-10000	-7	-133	3.55	51%	0.1	-47.6	0.92%	0	-1.4	24	0
10	Aug_10_2012	122.85	128.62	127.3	125.85			125.7(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-37	-10000	-6	-128	4.67	51%	0.11	-41.3	0.93%	0	-1.5	31	0

11	Aug_9_2012	122.71	128.81	127.59	126.19			125.07(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-44	-10000	-15	-132	7.56	51%	0.11	-34.5	0.93%	0	-2	33	0
12	Aug_8_2012	122.57	129.05	128.18	127.08			125.16(-0.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-34	-10000	-12	-98	7.25	51%	0.11	-14.7	0.93%	0	-2.3	42	0
13	Aug_7_2012	122.43	129.25	128.88	127.8			125.83(-1.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-26	-10000	-13	-65	6.61	51%	0.14	7.2	0.92%	0	-2.4	42	0
14	Aug_6_2012	122.26	129.4	129.49	128.58			127.47(0.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-13	-10000	-7	-29	3.67	53%	0.13	33.7	0.91%	0	-1.6	47	0
15	Aug_3_2012	122.1	129.45	129.83	128.97			127.42(-1.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-6	-10000	-4	-12	9.08	53%	0.13	53.1	0.91%	0	-1.6	43	0

16	Aug_2_2012	121.94	129.46	130.12	129.18			129.51(0.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-5	-10000	-5	-3	7.97	56%	0.16	53.2	0.89%	0	0	52	0
17	Aug_1_2012	121.75	129.3	130.05	129.47			128.78(-0.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-10	-10000	-12	-2	7.97	56%	0.12	56.8	0.89%	0	-0.4	48	0
18	Jul_31_2012	121.6	129.14	130.08	130.15			129.7(0.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-0	-10000	-7	21	7.45	56%	0.12	56.5	0.89%	0	0.3	56	0
19	Jul_30_2012	121.46	128.98	130	130.57			129.44(0.75%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	5	-10000	-5	36	6.03	56%	0.12	59.7	0.89%	0	0.3	56	0
20	Jul_27_2012	121.32	128.79	130.04	130.84			128.48(-1.89%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.2	10	-10000	-5	53	14.69	56%	0.11	59.6	0.89%	0	-0.2	54	0

21	Jul_26_2012	121.19	128.72	130.14	131.16			130.95(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	28	-10000	9	83	6.61	61%	0.12	63.9	0.85%	0	1.1	71	0
22	Jul_25_2012	121.04	128.49	129.99	130.66			132.16(0.26%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	31	-10000	12	89	5.33	63%	0.12	59.5	0.84%	0	1.9	83	0
23	Jul_24_2012	120.9	128.19	129.62	130			131.82(0.79%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	30	-10000	11	86	6.75	63%	0.13	57.4	0.85%	0	2	84	0
24	Jul_23_2012	120.74	127.93	129.27	129.38			130.79(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	22	-10000	4	77	6.14	63%	0.12	53.2	0.85%	0	1.8	73	0
25	Jul_20_2012	120.6	127.63	129	129.18			130.06(1.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	24	-10000	3	87	6.37	63%		48	0.85%	0	1.5	74	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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