Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jun. 16, 2004

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $82.2200 (-0.39%) ($81.9900 - $82.3400) on Wed. Jun. 16, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.67% (three month average)
RSI   49
Latest Price   $82.2200(-0.39%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(69%)    LQD(46%)    SHY(43%)    REMX(-1%)    XLU(-12%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.335% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-34%)    EWI(-33%)    IWM(-32%)    EWP(-32%)    EWG(-32%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.335% (StdDev 0.67%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $81.68(0.66%)
10 Day Moving Average   $81.69(0.65%)
20 Day Moving Average   $81.95(0.33%)
To recent high   -9.8%
To recent low   1.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 0.73% (three month std-dev: 0.67%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20040716

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_16_2004	85.74	81.95	81.69	81.68			82.22(-0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-9	-10000	4	-49	0.49	32%	-0.06	12.3	0.67%	0	0.4	49	0
2	Jun_15_2004	85.79	81.94	81.66	81.57			82.54(2.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.6	-8	-10000	8	-54	1.57	32%	-0.05	13.7	0.68%	0	1	54	0
3	Jun_14_2004	85.83	81.94	81.69	81.36			80.83(-0.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-20	-10000	-5	-66	0.89	23%	-0.12	5.6	0.62%	0	-1.8	43	0
4	Jun_10_2004	85.93	81.88	81.94	81.5			81.48(0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-14	-10000	-4	-45	0.34	25%	-0.07	-1.4	0.61%	0	-0.7	45	0
5	Jun_9_2004	85.99	81.86	82.06	81.6			81.32(-0.43%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-10	-10000	-4	-26	0.59	28%	-0.08	-9.1	0.61%	0	-0.9	51	0

6	Jun_8_2004	86.06	81.88	82.16	81.7			81.67(0.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-6	-10000	-3	-13	1.29	28%	-0.05	-14.3	0.62%	0	-0.3	51	0
7	Jun_7_2004	86.1	81.86	82.2	81.77			81.52(0.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-12	-10000	-12	-13	0.38	28%	-0.07	-26.6	0.62%	0	-0.5	46	0
8	Jun_4_2004	86.16	81.85	82.23	82.08			81.5(-0.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-7	-10000	-13	11	0.57	35%	-0.08	-30.4	0.68%	0	-0.5	54	0
9	Jun_3_2004	86.23	81.89	82.3	82.45			81.98(0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	9	-10000	-5	50	1.17	35%	-0.07	-19.8	0.68%	0	0.1	63	0
10	Jun_2_2004	86.29	81.92	82.3	82.59			81.81(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	14	-10000	-3	66	0.91	35%	-0.07	-21.7	0.68%	0	-0.2	59	0

11	Jun_1_2004	86.35	81.97	82.3	82.59			82.02(-1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.9	19	-10000	0	76	0.66	35%	-0.07	-27.6	0.68%	0	0.1	55	0
12	May_28_2004	86.41	82.03	82.26	82.67			83.1(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	31	-10000	10	92	0.61	37%	-0.02	-28.7	0.66%	0	1.3	66	0
13	May_27_2004	86.43	82.04	82.08	82.4			83.33(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	26	-10000	9	76	1.12	40%	-0.02	-38.5	0.67%	0	1.5	65	0
14	May_26_2004	86.45	82.03	81.81	82.15			82.68(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	18	-10000	9	45	0.51	38%	-0.03	-52.8	0.67%	0	0.7	50	0
15	May_25_2004	86.48	82.07	81.64	81.9			82.24(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	6	-10000	4	11	0.65	38%	-0.02	-54.5	0.67%	0	0.2	45	0

16	May_24_2004	86.5	82.17	81.56	81.79			82(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-3	-10000	-0	-10	0.31	38%	-0.03	-49.6	0.66%	0	-0.2	41	0
17	May_21_2004	86.53	82.27	81.47	81.8			81.74(-0.4%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-6	-10000	3	-32	1.46	38%	-0.05	-48.6	0.66%	0	-0.5	35	0
18	May_20_2004	86.57	82.38	81.43	81.71			82.07(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-7	-10000	10	-57	1.75	36%	-0.05	-50	0.67%	0	-0.3	35	0
19	May_19_2004	86.61	82.49	81.44	81.43			81.44(-0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-19	-10000	4	-88	0.32	33%	-0.05	-54.6	0.66%	0	-0.8	34	0
20	May_18_2004	86.65	82.62	81.55	81.33			81.71(-0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-25	-10000	2	-107	0.67	33%	-0.06	-60	0.66%	0	-0.7	32	0

21	May_17_2004	86.7	82.71	81.65	81.29			82.03(0.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-26	-10000	7	-126	1.74	33%	-0.06	-64.3	0.66%	0	-0.5	29	0
22	May_14_2004	86.75	82.83	81.77	81.29			81.31(0.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-38	-10000	0	-152	4.09	30%	-0.07	-72	0.65%	0	-1.2	27	0
23	May_13_2004	86.81	82.99	81.99	81.11			80.65(-0.38%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-52	-10000	-13	-167	1.19	26%	-0.07	-79.7	0.64%	0	-1.8	21	0
24	May_12_2004	86.87	83.18	82.26	81.46			80.96(-0.66%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-49	-10000	-12	-158	1.95	26%	-0.06	-85.3	0.65%	0	-1.9	20	0
25	May_11_2004	86.92	83.37	82.53	81.79			81.5(0.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-43	-10000	-10	-142	0.77	31%		-91.7	0.65%	0	-1.7	30	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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