Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 15, 2004

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 31, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $88.2300 (0.38%) ($87.6000 - $88.3100) on Thu. Jan. 15, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.72% (three month average)
RSI   58
Latest Price   $88.2300(0.38%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(69%)    LQD(46%)    SHY(44%)    REMX(-1%)    XLU(-11%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.36% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-33%)    EWI(-33%)    IWM(-32%)    EWP(-32%)    EWG(-31%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.36% (StdDev 0.72%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $87.49(0.85%)
10 Day Moving Average   $86.3(2.24%)
20 Day Moving Average   $86.34(2.19%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   6.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.25% (three month std-dev: 0.72%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_15_2004	85.18	86.34	86.3	87.49			88.23(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	34	-10000	18	81	1.54	59%	0.06	51.2	0.72%	0	1.8	58	0
2	Jan_14_2004	85.13	86.2	86.01	86.93			87.9(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	23	-10000	15	46	1.18	59%	0.06	46.5	0.73%	0	1.7	61	0
3	Jan_13_2004	85.08	86.07	85.78	86.45			87.47(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	15	-10000	15	13	0.47	59%	0.06	37.1	0.73%	0	1.6	51	0
4	Jan_12_2004	85.03	85.97	85.63	85.99			86.88(-0.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	8	-10000	17	-20	0.86	59%	0.04	23.2	0.73%	0	1.1	47	0
5	Jan_9_2004	85	85.89	85.61	85.45			86.95(1.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.8	-1	-10000	16	-50	1.62	59%	0.05	11.3	0.73%	0	1.3	47	0

6	Jan_8_2004	84.96	85.78	85.55	85.45			85.46(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-21	-10000	0	-84	0.55	55%	0.04	-3.2	0.71%	0	-0.4	44	0
7	Jan_7_2004	84.93	85.75	85.59	84.95			85.49(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-23	-10000	-2	-85	0.25	52%	0.02	-3.1	0.71%	0	-0.3	49	0
8	Jan_6_2004	84.91	85.74	85.72	85.02			85.15(1.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-23	-10000	-7	-72	0.69	52%	0.04	3.9	0.72%	0	-0.7	50	0
9	Jan_5_2004	84.88	85.77	85.9	85.23			84.22(-0.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-27	-10000	-18	-54	0.63	49%	0.02	14.6	0.71%	0	-1.8	43	0
10	Jan_2_2004	84.86	85.8	86.2	85.78			84.44(-1.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-12	-10000	-14	-7	0.87	44%	0.08	28	0.75%	0	-1.7	46	0

11	Dec_31_2003	84.79	85.81	86.41	86.23			85.45(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	7	-10000	-2	35	0.17	47%	0.02	30.3	0.74%	0	-0.4	59	0
12	Dec_30_2003	84.77	85.77	86.46	86.31			85.85(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	7	-10000	-6	47	0.39	51%	0.04	26	0.75%	0	0.1	63	0
13	Dec_29_2003	84.74	85.7	86.44	86.5			86.2(-0.9%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	11	-10000	-5	60	0.19	51%	0.04	18.9	0.77%	0	0.5	59	0
14	Dec_26_2003	84.71	85.65	86.38	86.68			86.98(0.37%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	17	-10000	-1	69	0.08	53%	0.05	18.2	0.77%	0	1.4	59	0
15	Dec_24_2003	84.67	85.58	86.22	86.7			86.66(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	22	-10000	2	80	0.14	53%	0.05	22.1	0.78%	0	1.2	66	0

16	Dec_23_2003	84.63	85.58	86.03	86.63			85.85(-1.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.9	22	-10000	1	83	0.45	51%	0.04	18.6	0.77%	0	0.3	64	0
17	Dec_22_2003	84.6	85.55	85.92	86.61			86.83(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	-10000	8	87	0.48	54%	0.05	16.7	0.77%	0	1.5	68	0
18	Dec_19_2003	84.56	85.52	85.76	86.34			87.07(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	27	-10000	9	82	0.48	54%	0.06	11.1	0.77%	0	1.8	72	0
19	Dec_18_2003	84.51	85.47	85.61	86.03			87.1(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	27	-10000	11	75	0.71	54%	0.04	7.4	0.77%	0	2	62	0
20	Dec_17_2003	84.48	85.47	85.34	85.68			86.32(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	19	-10000	10	46	0.53	55%	0.04	4.8	0.76%	0	1.3	51	0

21	Dec_16_2003	84.45	85.39	85.13	85.36			85.74(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	8	-10000	7	12	0.46	55%	0.01	11.8	0.77%	0	0.5	44	0
22	Dec_15_2003	84.44	85.4	85.02	85.13			85.46(-0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-1	-10000	2	-11	0.69	55%	0	18.4	0.77%	0	0.1	47	0
23	Dec_12_2003	84.44	85.42	84.9	85.08			85.51(0.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-10	-10000	-2	-34	0.55	55%	0	31.8	0.77%	0	0.1	42	0
24	Dec_11_2003	84.44	85.41	84.85	85.14			85.35(0.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-6	-10000	5	-40	0.51	55%	-0.02	45.5	0.78%	0	-0.1	41	0
25	Dec_10_2003	84.46	85.35	84.89	84.96			84.74(0.17%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-10	-10000	3	-48	0.56	57%		35.1	0.78%	0	-0.8	45	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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