Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 8, 2003

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. Jun. 20, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $85.2000 (-0.7%) ($85.0900 - $85.7800) on Mon. Dec. 8, 2003.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.79% (three month average)
RSI   45
Latest Price   $85.2000(-0.7%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT declines -0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
LQD(47%)    SHY(44%)    TIP(2%)    REMX(-1%)    XLU(-11%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.395% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-33%)    EWI(-33%)    IWM(-32%)    EWP(-32%)    EWG(-31%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.395% (StdDev 0.79%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.7%

Resistance Level   $85.26
5 Day Moving Average   $84.86(0.4%)
10 Day Moving Average   $85.14(0.07%)
20 Day Moving Average   $85.26(-0.07%)
To recent high   -3.4%
To recent low   2.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.15% (three month std-dev: 0.79%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20040108

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_8_2003	84.48	85.26	85.14	84.86			85.2(-0.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-10	-10000	6	-58	0.44	55%	-0.04	14.8	0.79%	0	-0.1	45	0
2	Dec_5_2003	84.51	85.18	85.26	84.67			85.8(1.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-13	-10000	4	-64	1.16	58%	-0.02	1.6	0.79%	0	0.6	49	0
3	Dec_4_2003	84.53	85.18	85.31	84.54			84.45(0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-24	-10000	-9	-68	0.56	55%	-0.05	-5.4	0.8%	0	-0.6	46	0
4	Dec_3_2003	84.57	85.08	85.43	84.83			84.26(-0.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-20	-10000	-12	-45	1.45	55%	-0.04	0.8	0.8%	0	-0.7	54	0
5	Dec_2_2003	84.6	85.12	85.67	85.23			84.6(0.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-5	-10000	-7	1	0.59	50%	-0.06	7.8	0.8%	0	-0.5	60	0

6	Dec_1_2003	84.65	85.11	85.82	85.47			84.24(-1.05%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-2	-10000	-13	30	1.11	50%	-0.08	11.7	0.83%	0	-0.8	59	0
7	Nov_28_2003	84.72	85.17	86.01	85.92			85.13(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	14	-10000	-7	75	0.31	55%	-0.13	23	0.82%	0	-0	64	0
8	Nov_26_2003	84.83	85.13	86.05	86.18			85.91(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	28	-10000	2	107	0.61	57%	-0.05	31.2	0.82%	0	0.7	70	0
9	Nov_25_2003	84.87	85.07	85.89	86.12			86.26(0.55%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	24	-10000	-2	103	0.3	57%	-0.05	29.3	0.82%	0	1.1	64	0
10	Nov_24_2003	84.91	85.03	85.62	86.19			85.79(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	23	-10000	-1	96	0.57	57%	0.01	38.7	0.83%	0	0.8	56	0

11	Nov_21_2003	84.9	84.99	85.41	86.24			86.5(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	26	-10000	3	96	0.52	57%	-0.05	46.6	0.82%	0	1.5	64	0
12	Nov_20_2003	84.94	84.92	85.11	86.12			86.45(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	25	-10000	6	81	0.37	57%	-0.07	54.5	0.82%	0	1.6	56	0
13	Nov_19_2003	85	84.8	84.82	85.9			85.62(-1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	24	-10000	9	67	0.55	58%	-0.07	59.6	0.82%	0	0.9	58	0
14	Nov_18_2003	85.06	84.76	84.68	85.59			86.58(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	27	-10000	18	52	0.63	61%	-0.07	60.2	0.82%	0	2.1	60	0
15	Nov_17_2003	85.12	84.63	84.49	84.96			86.05(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	15	-10000	15	16	0.7	61%	-0.07	47.3	0.82%	0	1.8	51	0

16	Nov_14_2003	85.18	84.52	84.31	84.44			85.92(0.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	2	7	-10000	14	-15	0.48	61%	-0.07	28.1	0.83%	0	1.9	53	0
17	Nov_13_2003	85.24	84.4	84.21	83.95			85.35(1.55%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.9	-3	-10000	10	-40	0.92	56%	-0.11	4.5	0.83%	0	1.3	49	0
18	Nov_12_2003	85.33	84.28	84.1	83.59			84.05(0.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-17	-10000	-2	-62	0.32	53%	-0.13	-15.9	0.84%	0	-0.3	49	0
19	Nov_11_2003	85.44	84.24	84.17	83.65			83.44(0.01%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-23	-10000	-9	-64	0.1	53%	-0.13	-21.3	0.84%	0	-1.1	40	0
20	Nov_10_2003	85.55	84.26	84.37	83.95			83.43(-0.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-15	-10000	-6	-40	0.55	53%	-0.12	-17.2	0.84%	0	-1.1	47	0

21	Nov_7_2003	85.65	84.31	84.54	84.15			83.5(-0.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-13	-10000	-10	-23	0.73	53%	-0.13	-19	0.84%	0	-1.1	50	0
22	Nov_6_2003	85.76	84.36	84.73	84.49			83.55(-0.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	-2	-10000	-5	8	0.86	57%	-0.13	-11	0.84%	0	-1.2	53	0
23	Nov_5_2003	85.87	84.39	84.82	84.66			84.34(-0.68%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	5	-10000	-3	27	0.28	56%	-0.13	-25.3	0.87%	0	-0.1	61	0
24	Nov_4_2003	85.98	84.41	84.89	84.75			84.92(0.57%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	9	-10000	-3	44	0.25	56%	-0.14	-39.5	0.88%	0	0.8	62	0
25	Nov_3_2003	86.1	84.39	84.82	84.87			84.44(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	11	-10000	-3	53	0.96	56%		-55.3	0.89%	0	0.1	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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