Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Nov. 19, 2003

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. May. 30, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $85.6200 (-1.11%) ($85.5600 - $86.6200) on Wed. Nov. 19, 2003.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.82% (three month average)
RSI   58
Latest Price   $85.6200(-1.11%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
LQD(47%)    SHY(44%)    REMX(-1%)    XLU(-11%)    EWJ(-22%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.41% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-33%)    IWM(-32%)    EWP(-32%)    EWI(-32%)    EWG(-31%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.41% (StdDev 0.82%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $85.9(-0.33%)
10 Day Moving Average   $84.82(0.94%)
20 Day Moving Average   $84.8(0.97%)
To recent high   -2.9%
To recent low   4.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.04% (three month std-dev: 0.82%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20031219

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_19_2003	85	84.8	84.82	85.9			85.62(-1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	24	-10000	9	67	0.55	58%	-0.07	59.6	0.82%	0	0.9	58	0
2	Nov_18_2003	85.06	84.76	84.68	85.59			86.58(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	27	-10000	18	52	0.63	61%	-0.07	60.2	0.82%	0	2.1	60	0
3	Nov_17_2003	85.12	84.63	84.49	84.96			86.05(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	15	-10000	15	16	0.7	61%	-0.07	47.3	0.82%	0	1.8	51	0
4	Nov_14_2003	85.18	84.52	84.31	84.44			85.92(0.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	2	7	-10000	14	-15	0.48	61%	-0.07	28.1	0.83%	0	1.9	53	0
5	Nov_13_2003	85.24	84.4	84.21	83.95			85.35(1.55%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.9	-3	-10000	10	-40	0.92	56%	-0.11	4.5	0.83%	0	1.3	49	0

6	Nov_12_2003	85.33	84.28	84.1	83.59			84.05(0.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-17	-10000	-2	-62	0.32	53%	-0.13	-15.9	0.84%	0	-0.3	49	0
7	Nov_11_2003	85.44	84.24	84.17	83.65			83.44(0.01%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-23	-10000	-9	-64	0.1	53%	-0.13	-21.3	0.84%	0	-1.1	40	0
8	Nov_10_2003	85.55	84.26	84.37	83.95			83.43(-0.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-15	-10000	-6	-40	0.55	53%	-0.12	-17.2	0.84%	0	-1.1	47	0
9	Nov_7_2003	85.65	84.31	84.54	84.15			83.5(-0.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-13	-10000	-10	-23	0.73	53%	-0.13	-19	0.84%	0	-1.1	50	0
10	Nov_6_2003	85.76	84.36	84.73	84.49			83.55(-0.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	-2	-10000	-5	8	0.86	57%	-0.13	-11	0.84%	0	-1.2	53	0

11	Nov_5_2003	85.87	84.39	84.82	84.66			84.34(-0.68%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	5	-10000	-3	27	0.28	56%	-0.13	-25.3	0.87%	0	-0.1	61	0
12	Nov_4_2003	85.98	84.41	84.89	84.75			84.92(0.57%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	9	-10000	-3	44	0.25	56%	-0.14	-39.5	0.88%	0	0.8	62	0
13	Nov_3_2003	86.1	84.39	84.82	84.87			84.44(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	11	-10000	-3	53	0.96	56%	-0.15	-55.3	0.89%	0	0.1	56	0
14	Oct_31_2003	86.23	84.39	84.77	85			85.19(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-10000	-0	60	0.89	53%	-0.13	-56.8	0.88%	0	1	56	0
15	Oct_30_2003	86.34	84.44	84.61	85.02			84.4(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.7	13	-10000	0	53	0.94	53%	-0.14	-56	0.9%	0	-0	49	0

16	Oct_29_2003	86.46	84.56	84.48	85.01			84.78(-0.9%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	11	-10000	-1	46	0.93	50%	-0.13	-45.5	0.9%	0	0.2	55	0
17	Oct_28_2003	86.57	84.68	84.33	85.04			85.55(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	15	-10000	7	40	2.2	49%	-0.1	-33.5	0.91%	0	0.6	54	0
18	Oct_27_2003	86.66	84.79	84.13	84.76			85.1(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	11	-10000	7	21	0.35	49%	-0.1	-29.7	0.93%	0	0.2	51	0
19	Oct_24_2003	86.75	84.86	84.03	84.5			85.27(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	7	-10000	9	1	1.41	48%	-0.1	-27.1	0.93%	0	0.3	44	0
20	Oct_23_2003	86.84	84.96	83.94	84.15			84.33(-0.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0	-10000	7	-20	1.06	46%	-0.12	-27.6	0.92%	0	-0.4	41	0

21	Oct_22_2003	86.94	85.07	83.91	83.87			84.95(0.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-7	-10000	9	-54	0.8	46%	-0.1	-29.7	0.92%	0	-0.1	34	0
22	Oct_21_2003	87.03	85.13	83.86	83.52			84.13(0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-22	-10000	2	-93	0.43	40%	-0.1	-34.1	0.91%	0	-0.6	26	0
23	Oct_20_2003	87.12	85.21	83.9	83.43			83.82(0.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-32	-10000	-2	-120	0.28	40%	-0.13	-33.3	0.95%	0	-0.9	21	0
24	Oct_17_2003	87.23	85.28	84.07	83.51			83.54(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-36	-10000	-5	-128	0.35	40%	-0.13	-31.3	0.95%	0	-1.2	33	0
25	Oct_16_2003	87.34	85.39	84.24	83.71			82.9(-0.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-39	-10000	-6	-138	0.56	40%		-26	0.94%	0	-1.7	26	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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