Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Oct. 27, 2003

Trading Signals: TLT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jun. 7, 2024)

(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)
TLT latest price $85.1000 (-0.2%) ($84.8000 - $85.3300) on Mon. Oct. 27, 2003.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $85.1000(-0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   TLT advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TLT advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TLT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
LQD(47%)    SHY(44%)    REMX(-1%)    XLU(-11%)    EWJ(-22%)
Factors Impacting TLT price   TLT will decline at least -0.465% in a week (0% probabilities).
SPY(-33%)    IWM(-32%)    EWP(-32%)    EWI(-32%)    EWG(-31%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.465% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $84.76(0.4%)
10 Day Moving Average   $84.13(1.15%)
20 Day Moving Average   $84.79(0.37%)
To recent high   -3.5%
To recent low   4.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. TLT price fluctuates within 1.65% (three month std-dev: 0.93%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_27_2003	86.66	84.79	84.13	84.76			85.1(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	11	-10000	7	21	0.35	49%	-0.1	-29.7	0.93%	0	0.2	51	0
2	Oct_24_2003	86.75	84.86	84.03	84.5			85.27(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	7	-10000	9	1	1.41	48%	-0.1	-27.1	0.93%	0	0.3	44	0
3	Oct_23_2003	86.84	84.96	83.94	84.15			84.33(-0.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0	-10000	7	-20	1.06	46%	-0.12	-27.6	0.92%	0	-0.4	41	0
4	Oct_22_2003	86.94	85.07	83.91	83.87			84.95(0.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-7	-10000	9	-54	0.8	46%	-0.1	-29.7	0.92%	0	-0.1	34	0
5	Oct_21_2003	87.03	85.13	83.86	83.52			84.13(0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-22	-10000	2	-93	0.43	40%	-0.1	-34.1	0.91%	0	-0.6	26	0

6	Oct_20_2003	87.12	85.21	83.9	83.43			83.82(0.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-32	-10000	-2	-120	0.28	40%	-0.13	-33.3	0.95%	0	-0.9	21	0
7	Oct_17_2003	87.23	85.28	84.07	83.51			83.54(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-36	-10000	-5	-128	0.35	40%	-0.13	-31.3	0.95%	0	-1.2	33	0
8	Oct_16_2003	87.34	85.39	84.24	83.71			82.9(-0.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-39	-10000	-6	-138	0.56	40%	-0.14	-26	0.94%	0	-1.7	26	0
9	Oct_15_2003	87.46	85.54	84.65	83.94			83.23(-0.49%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-38	-10000	-7	-129	0.47	37%	-0.13	-19.5	0.94%	0	-1.8	34	0
10	Oct_14_2003	87.57	85.66	85.07	84.22			83.64(-0.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-30	-10000	-5	-106	0.34	36%	-0.05	-11.7	0.98%	0	-1.6	38	0

11	Oct_13_2003	87.61	85.72	85.51	84.43			84.22(-0.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-26	-10000	-7	-83	0.12	36%	-0.14	-5	0.99%	0	-1.3	45	0
12	Oct_10_2003	87.73	85.75	85.77	84.72			84.55(0.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-17	-10000	-3	-60	0.26	36%	-0.13	7.4	0.99%	0	-1	50	0
13	Oct_9_2003	87.84	85.77	86.07	84.86			84.05(-0.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-23	-10000	-15	-48	1.39	36%	-0.13	12.9	0.99%	0	-1.4	45	0
14	Oct_8_2003	87.95	85.79	86.35	85.48			84.65(-0.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-14	-10000	-13	-17	0.81	36%	-0.11	34.3	0.98%	0	-1	48	0
15	Oct_7_2003	88.05	85.8	86.54	86.05			84.67(-1.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-11	-10000	-17	9	0.59	36%	-0.1	55.3	0.98%	0	-0.9	48	0

16	Oct_6_2003	88.14	85.78	86.65	86.76			85.66(0.43%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	9	-10000	-5	50	0.51	37%	-0.09	73.7	0.98%	0	-0.1	59	0
17	Oct_3_2003	88.22	85.67	86.61	86.99			85.29(-2.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.3	8	-10000	-10	61	1.45	36%	-0.09	76.3	0.98%	0	-0.3	57	0
18	Oct_2_2003	88.3	85.62	86.67	87.42			87.12(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	25	-10000	2	92	1.19	38%	-0.07	79.1	0.97%	0	1	67	0
19	Oct_1_2003	88.36	85.4	86.52	87.34			87.52(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	30	-10000	6	102	0.93	37%	-0.05	72.3	0.97%	0	1.4	72	0
20	Sep_30_2003	88.4	85.14	86.31	87.09			88.22(1.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	35	-10000	13	102	1.62	37%	-0.03	63.5	0.97%	0	1.9	72	0

21	Sep_29_2003	88.43	84.82	85.92	86.55			86.78(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	29	-10000	9	88	0.74	33%	-0.05	58.1	0.94%	0	1.3	71	0
22	Sep_26_2003	88.47	84.66	85.7	86.19			87.48(0.9%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	28	-10000	9	83	1.87	32%	-0.03	55.2	0.94%	0	2	79	0
23	Sep_25_2003	88.5	84.47	85.41	85.82			86.7(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	23	-10000	6	72	0.85	30%	-0.03	57.1	0.95%	0	1.8	67	0
24	Sep_24_2003	88.53	84.28	85.15	85.58			86.27(0.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	21	-10000	4	72	1.01	32%	-0.03	55.1	0.96%	0	1.7	72	0
25	Sep_23_2003	88.56	84.12	84.98	85.42			85.53(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	25	-10000	5	84	0.63	32%		55.1	0.96%	0	1.3	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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