Trading Signals: TCOM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Apr. 21, 2011

Trading Signals: TCOM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Mar. 16, 2006 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Trip.com Group Limited)
TCOM latest price $25.1600 (2.32%) ($23.8900 - $25.2900) on Thu. Apr. 21, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.27% (three month average)
RSI   86
Latest Price   $25.1600(2.32%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   TCOM advances 2.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   TCOM advances 4.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support TCOM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
FXI(44%)    VWO(42%)    EEM(39%)    QQQ(32%)    XLY(32%)
Factors Impacting TCOM price   TCOM will decline at least -1.135% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-11%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(-4%)    IGOV(2%)    LQD(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.135% (StdDev 2.27%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $23.84(5.54%)
10 Day Moving Average   $23.25(8.22%)
20 Day Moving Average   $22.2(13.33%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   36%
Market Cap   $14.922b

Trip.com Group Ltd. engages in the provision of travel-related services. It provides hotel accommodations, airline tickets, packaged tours, corporate travel management services, property management systems, and advertising services. The company was founded by Jian Zhang Liang, Min Fan, Nan Peng Shen, and Qi Ji in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

$. TCOM price fluctuates within 6.89% (three month std-dev: 2.27%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 8 Average positive next day return: 2.53%(75%) Average negative next day return: -4.47%(25%) Sample size 8 Average positive next three day return: 7.37%(63%) Average negative next three day return: -1.81%(38%) Sample size 8 Average positive next weekly return: 5.99%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.25%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110521

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_21_2011	20.92	22.2	23.25	23.84	23.76	24.51	25.16(2.32%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	63	210	39	135	6.02	69%	0.14	84.9	2.27%	0	1.9	86	0
2	Apr_20_2011	20.89	21.91	22.98	23.33	23.27	23.89	24.59(3.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	64	180	43	127	8.01	67%	0.14	79.4	2.26%	0	1.8	85	0
3	Apr_19_2011	20.86	21.62	22.72	22.89	22.79	23.02	23.77(3.89%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	46	60	23	113	6.51	65%	0.05	73	2.22%	0	1.4	84	0
4	Apr_18_2011	20.85	21.37	22.57	22.6	22.55	22.64	22.88(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	32	20	4	116	3.47	61%	-0.05	67.6	2.17%	0	1	83	0
5	Apr_15_2011	20.86	21.18	22.43	22.55	22.55	22.57	22.8(0.93%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	35	20	2	133	2.88	61%	0.1	64	2.19%	0	1.1	84	0

6	Apr_14_2011	20.84	20.97	22.25	22.56	22.5	22.46	22.59(0.71%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	37	-20	-1	150	2.51	61%	-0.05	61.6	2.2%	0	1.1	84	0
7	Apr_13_2011	20.85	20.78	22.07	22.58	22.59	22.43	22.43(0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0.1	43	-50	0	170	4.2	61%	-0.05	59.8	2.23%	0	1.1	85	0
8	Apr_12_2011	20.86	20.58	21.88	22.51	22.57	22.55	22.32(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	45	0	-4	191	5.23	53%	-0.05	57.1	2.23%	0	1.1	88	0
9	Apr_11_2011	20.87	20.42	21.67	22.52	22.54	22.75	22.62(-1.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	64	70	14	213	4.48	53%	-0.05	59.4	2.33%	0	1.5	88	0
10	Apr_8_2011	20.88	20.26	21.4	22.28	22.39	22.6	22.85(0.66%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	75	80	27	217	3.46	53%	-0.05	60.1	2.34%	0	1.9	86	0

11	Apr_7_2011	20.89	20.07	21.09	21.88	21.97	22.34	22.7(2.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	69	130	24	205	3.97	53%	0	57.1	2.35%	0	2.1	87	0
12	Apr_6_2011	20.89	19.89	20.76	21.49	21.57	22.18	22.07(-1.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	73	210	32	197	4.61	50%	-0.05	54.6	2.34%	0	2	86	0
13	Apr_5_2011	20.9	19.75	20.42	21.15	21.15	21.6	22.37(4.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	73	150	37	181	9.24	50%	-0.05	53.4	2.34%	0	2.7	90	0
14	Apr_4_2011	20.91	19.58	20.06	20.71	20.71	20.96	21.42(2.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	54	80	23	147	4.07	53%	-0.1	53	2.27%	0	2.4	73	0
15	Apr_1_2011	20.93	19.45	19.81	20.39	20.43	20.7	20.82(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	40	100	17	110	2.64	50%	-0.19	46.9	2.41%	0	2.1	63	0

16	Mar_31_2011	20.97	19.38	19.59	20.17	20.21	20.46	20.75(1.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	37	90	20	88	3.32	50%	-0.1	40.1	2.43%	0	2.4	64	0
17	Mar_30_2011	20.99	19.31	19.37	19.92	19.96	20.16	20.41(1.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	34	80	23	65	4.82	50%	-0.19	32.7	2.44%	0	2.2	61	0
18	Mar_29_2011	21.03	19.24	19.17	19.57	19.67	19.95	20.14(1.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	22	110	20	27	4.05	50%	-0.14	19.7	2.44%	0	2.1	57	0
19	Mar_28_2011	21.06	19.18	19.06	19.3	19.33	19.76	19.84(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	15	160	18	6	5.35	50%	-0.19	0.5	2.43%	0	1.8	56	0
20	Mar_25_2011	21.1	19.18	19.02	19.13	19.06	19.39	19.73(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	17	110	22	1	2.41	50%	-0.24	-15.7	2.41%	0	1.5	59	0

21	Mar_24_2011	21.15	19.18	18.97	18.91	18.88	18.89	19.5(4.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.6	4	-0	12	-21	4.41	50%	-0.19	-35.6	2.42%	0	1	48	0
22	Mar_23_2011	21.19	19.15	18.94	18.74	18.77	18.73	18.63(-0.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-12	-10	-2	-42	3.42	43%	-0.38	-49.2	2.36%	0	-1.4	38	0
23	Mar_22_2011	21.27	19.16	19.02	18.72	18.78	18.87	18.8(-1.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-12	40	-2	-41	1.54	47%	-0.37	-69.7	2.37%	0	-1	46	0
24	Mar_21_2011	21.35	19.17	19.07	18.79	18.78	18.81	19.01(2.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-10	10	-2	-32	4.49	47%	-0.33	-81.4	2.4%	0	-0.5	51	0
25	Mar_18_2011	21.42	19.21	19.08	18.89	18.76	18.69	18.63(-0.05%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-15	-50	-9	-33	4.54	47%		-90.7	2.38%	0	-1.6	40	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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