Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jan. 8, 2024

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 10, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $474.6000 (1.43%) ($468.3000 - $474.7500) on Mon. Jan. 8, 2024.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.76% (three month average)
RSI   57
Latest Price   $474.6000(1.43%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(94%)    QQQ(94%)    DIA(84%)    IWO(78%)    SMH(76%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.38% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-69%)    VIXM(-57%)    UUP(-40%)    GLD(21%)    TLT(23%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.38% (StdDev 0.76%)
Hourly BBV 2.5 ()
Intraday Trend 1.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $470.25(0.93%)
10 Day Moving Average   $472.78(0.38%)
20 Day Moving Average   $470.89(0.79%)
To recent high   -0.4%
To recent low   15.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   0.9
One Month Target Price   > $474.6
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $456.57

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is -0.4% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -8% away from the target price of 474.6.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 0.86% (three month std-dev: 0.76%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 10 Average positive next day return: 1.49%(10%) Average negative next day return: -0.92%(90%) Sample size 10 Average positive next three day return: 1.84%(20%) Average negative next three day return: -1.35%(80%) Sample size 10 Average positive next weekly return: 1.4%(30%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.89%(70%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20240208

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_8_2024	445.41	470.89	472.78	470.25	469.41	469.78	474.6(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	76	0	94	23	74.8	63%	0.09	74.4	0.76%	2.5	0.9	57	0.8
2	Jan_5_2024	445.02	470.11	472.57	470.39	469.6	468.23	467.92(0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-120	-30	-138	-67	86.06	63%	0.07	67.7	0.75%	-2	-0.5	45	1.1
3	Jan_4_2024	444.69	469.55	472.7	472.14	471.46	469.04	467.28(-0.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-189	-40	-222	-88	84.12	64%	0.06	68.7	0.75%	-1.5	-0.4	47	0.3
4	Jan_3_2024	444.41	469.09	473.5	473.99	473.57	470.96	468.79(-0.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-217	-40	-265	-71	103.38	60%	0.06	68.4	0.75%	-1.3	-0	59	0.6
5	Jan_2_2024	444.14	468.55	473.89	475.36	475.12	473.89	472.65(-0.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-137	-20	-180	-9	122.94	63%	0.05	70.5	0.76%	-1.7	0.6	66	1.6

6	Dec_29_2023	443.9	467.9	473.62	475.56	475.83	476.18	475.31(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	30	10	11	85	121.58	63%	0.07	69.8	0.76%	-0.7	1	72	2
7	Dec_28_2023	443.6	466.96	473.28	475.04	475.35	476.35	476.69(0.04%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	127	20	120	147	77.1	63%	0.07	67.5	0.76%	1.1	1.3	76	2.2
8	Dec_27_2023	443.29	465.86	472.64	473.35	473.99	475.48	476.51(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	129	30	119	157	67.9	63%	0.06	62.8	0.76%	0.8	1.4	78	2.6
9	Dec_26_2023	443.01	464.78	471.44	473.02	472.89	474.36	475.65(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	150	20	141	177	55.32	59%	0.05	63.6	0.76%	1.2	1.4	74	2.5
10	Dec_22_2023	442.79	463.7	470.11	472.28	472.53	472.5	473.65(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	111	0	95	160	67.12	59%	0.06	64.8	0.78%	0.3	1.4	72	1.4

11	Dec_21_2023	442.54	462.77	468.82	471.42	471.99	471.42	472.7(0.95%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-16	-0	-53	97	86.46	55%	0.05	67.5	0.78%	-0.7	1.4	67	0.6
12	Dec_20_2023	442.31	461.86	467.42	471.28	471.46	472.57	468.26(-1.39%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	26	20	-5	117	102.32	52%	0.03	73.8	0.81%	-2.6	0.9	67	0.3
13	Dec_19_2023	442.19	461.12	466.18	471.72	471.56	472.56	474.84(0.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	208	10	207	210	55.56	54%	0.04	79.3	0.8%	1.2	2	79	0.7
14	Dec_18_2023	442.02	460.04	464.34	469.57	470.01	470.36	471.97(0.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	98	10	82	147	70.24	54%	0.03	89	0.79%	1.1	1.9	76	0.8
15	Dec_15_2023	441.87	458.96	462.79	467.57	467.8	470.57	469.33(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	151	40	148	161	141.23	51%	0.04	94.5	0.79%	-0	1.8	75	0.8

16	Dec_14_2023	441.7	457.98	461.72	465.75	465.7	469.66	472.01(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	380	60	420	258	117.83	53%	0.04	104.1	0.81%	1.1	2.5	79	1.6
17	Dec_13_2023	441.53	456.82	460.08	462.99	462.45	465.04	470.44(1.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.6	280	40	309	192	91.67	53%	0.03	118.1	0.82%	2.7	2.8	78	1.4
18	Dec_12_2023	441.38	455.7	458.42	459.86	459.98	461.73	464.1(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	165	30	181	117	67.87	50%	0.02	138.8	0.8%	1.9	2.2	74	1.6
19	Dec_11_2023	441.28	454.53	457.47	458.36	458.49	459.87	461.99(0.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	138	20	153	93	63.75	52%	0.02	112.7	0.8%	1.7	1.6	68	1.4
20	Dec_8_2023	441.18	453.49	456.69	457.32	457.3	458.22	460.2(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	91	10	98	68	83.06	52%	0.02	101.8	0.81%	1.9	1.3	72	1.2

21	Dec_7_2023	441.1	452.24	456.17	457.1	456.55	457.11	458.23(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	50	0	48	54	66.91	52%	0.01	83.8	0.81%	1.4	0.9	70	1
22	Dec_6_2023	441.07	451.23	455.83	456.73	456.52	456.38	454.76(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	40	-0	35	55	68.73	50%	0	85.8	0.8%	-1.6	0.5	67	1.2
23	Dec_5_2023	441.07	450.39	455.72	456.7	456.23	456	456.6(-0.04%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0	-22	-10	-40	32	69.67	50%	0.01	91.7	0.8%	-0.1	0.8	75	1.3
24	Dec_4_2023	441.01	449.38	455.49	456.37	456.22	456.66	456.79(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	40	10	27	77	64.24	50%	0.02	98.3	0.81%	0	0.9	85	1.4
25	Dec_1_2023	440.93	448.3	454.92	455.9	455.92	456.45	459.1(0.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	80	10	71	108	88.99	50%		107	0.81%	1.7	1.3	89	1.3
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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