Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Dec. 22, 2023

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Apr. 26, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $473.6500 (0.2%) ($471.7000 - $475.3800) on Fri. Dec. 22, 2023.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.78% (three month average)
RSI   72
Latest Price   $473.6500(0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(92%)    SMH(75%)    TAN(48%)    TLT(20%)    UUP(-27%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.39% in a week (0% probabilities).
IVE(72%)    IVW(93%)    IWN(66%)    IWM(73%)    IWO(78%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.39% (StdDev 0.78%)
Hourly BBV 0.3 ()
Intraday Trend -0%

5 Day Moving Average   $472.28(0.29%)
10 Day Moving Average   $470.11(0.75%)
20 Day Moving Average   $463.7(2.15%)
To recent high   -0.3%
To recent low   15.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.4
One Month Target Price   > $473.65
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $455.18

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is -0.3% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -7.5% away from the target price of 473.65.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.59% (three month std-dev: 0.78%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 0.63%(36%) Average negative next day return: -0.89%(64%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 1%(48%) Average negative next three day return: -1.45%(52%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 1.23%(52%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.15%(48%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20240122

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_22_2023	442.79	463.7	470.11	472.28	472.53	472.5	473.65(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	111	0	95	160	67.12	59%	0.06	64.8	0.78%	0.3	1.4	72	1.4
2	Dec_21_2023	442.54	462.77	468.82	471.42	471.99	471.42	472.7(0.95%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-16	-0	-53	97	86.46	55%	0.05	67.5	0.78%	-0.7	1.4	67	0.6
3	Dec_20_2023	442.31	461.86	467.42	471.28	471.46	472.57	468.26(-1.39%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	26	20	-5	117	102.32	52%	0.03	73.8	0.81%	-2.6	0.9	67	0.3
4	Dec_19_2023	442.19	461.12	466.18	471.72	471.56	472.56	474.84(0.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	208	10	207	210	55.56	54%	0.04	79.3	0.8%	1.2	2	79	0.7
5	Dec_18_2023	442.02	460.04	464.34	469.57	470.01	470.36	471.97(0.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	98	10	82	147	70.24	54%	0.03	89	0.79%	1.1	1.9	76	0.8

6	Dec_15_2023	441.87	458.96	462.79	467.57	467.8	470.57	469.33(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	151	40	148	161	141.23	51%	0.04	94.5	0.79%	-0	1.8	75	0.8
7	Dec_14_2023	441.7	457.98	461.72	465.75	465.7	469.66	472.01(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	380	60	420	258	117.83	53%	0.04	104.1	0.81%	1.1	2.5	79	1.6
8	Dec_13_2023	441.53	456.82	460.08	462.99	462.45	465.04	470.44(1.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.6	280	40	309	192	91.67	53%	0.03	118.1	0.82%	2.7	2.8	78	1.4
9	Dec_12_2023	441.38	455.7	458.42	459.86	459.98	461.73	464.1(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	165	30	181	117	67.87	50%	0.02	138.8	0.8%	1.9	2.2	74	1.6
10	Dec_11_2023	441.28	454.53	457.47	458.36	458.49	459.87	461.99(0.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	138	20	153	93	63.75	52%	0.02	112.7	0.8%	1.7	1.6	68	1.4

11	Dec_8_2023	441.18	453.49	456.69	457.32	457.3	458.22	460.2(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	91	10	98	68	83.06	52%	0.02	101.8	0.81%	1.9	1.3	72	1.2
12	Dec_7_2023	441.1	452.24	456.17	457.1	456.55	457.11	458.23(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	50	0	48	54	66.91	52%	0.01	83.8	0.81%	1.4	0.9	70	1
13	Dec_6_2023	441.07	451.23	455.83	456.73	456.52	456.38	454.76(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	40	-0	35	55	68.73	50%	0	85.8	0.8%	-1.6	0.5	67	1.2
14	Dec_5_2023	441.07	450.39	455.72	456.7	456.23	456	456.6(-0.04%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0	-22	-10	-40	32	69.67	50%	0.01	91.7	0.8%	-0.1	0.8	75	1.3
15	Dec_4_2023	441.01	449.38	455.49	456.37	456.22	456.66	456.79(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	40	10	27	77	64.24	50%	0.02	98.3	0.81%	0	0.9	85	1.4

16	Dec_1_2023	440.93	448.3	454.92	455.9	455.92	456.45	459.1(0.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	80	10	71	108	88.99	50%	0.02	107	0.81%	1.7	1.3	89	1.3
17	Nov_30_2023	440.84	446.91	454.03	455.14	455.23	455.78	456.4(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	51	10	30	112	79.66	50%	0.02	110.8	0.8%	-0.3	1.1	92	1.4
18	Nov_29_2023	440.73	445.29	453.37	454.87	455.15	455.39	454.61(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	77	10	55	141	63.1	53%	0.03	101.4	0.8%	-0.5	1	80	1.3
19	Nov_28_2023	440.61	443.55	452.81	454.6	454.89	454.69	454.93(0.1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	35	-0	2	135	62.01	53%	0.04	87.6	0.82%	-0.7	1	80	1.5
20	Nov_27_2023	440.45	441.65	451.43	454.47	454.5	454.91	454.48(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	46	10	12	148	50.41	53%	0.04	78.3	0.82%	-0.3	1.1	81	1.3

21	Nov_24_2023	440.29	439.54	450.11	453.73	453.98	455.09	455.3(0.06%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	130	20	109	191	29.74	52%	0.03	66.7	0.83%	0	1.2	84	1.4
22	Nov_22_2023	440.16	437.45	448.05	452.71	452.8	454.09	455.02(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	142	20	125	193	59.35	53%	0.03	57.1	0.85%	1.1	1.2	86	1.2
23	Nov_21_2023	440.01	435.57	446.29	451.65	451.43	452.87	453.27(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	135	20	112	203	49.16	53%	0.02	53	0.85%	0.7	1.3	89	1.3
24	Nov_20_2023	439.92	434.04	444.66	450.74	450.64	451.52	454.26(0.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	171	10	148	241	69.88	53%	0.03	48.9	0.85%	2.1	1.5	91	1.4
25	Nov_17_2023	439.81	432.3	442.76	447.92	449.43	449.98	450.79(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	148	20	118	238	83.12	52%		40.1	0.85%	1.3	1.5	92	1.5
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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