Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SPY: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Dec. 6, 2023

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. May. 8, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $454.7600 (-0.4%) ($454.3100 - $458.8400) on Wed. Dec. 6, 2023.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.8% (three month average)
RSI   67
Latest Price   $454.7600(-0.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(92%)    SMH(76%)    XBI(53%)    TAN(49%)    XLE(28%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.4% in a week (0% probabilities).
IVE(74%)    IVW(94%)    IWN(66%)    IWO(77%)    JETS(44%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.4% (StdDev 0.8%)
Hourly BBV -1.6 ()
Intraday Trend -0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $456.73(-0.43%)
10 Day Moving Average   $455.83(-0.23%)
20 Day Moving Average   $451.23(0.78%)
To recent high   -0.9%
To recent low   10.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.55% (three month std-dev: 0.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 1.89%(25%) Average negative next day return: -0.68%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -1.14%(100%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 0.32%(25%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.39%(75%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20240106

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_6_2023	441.07	451.23	455.83	456.73	456.52	456.38	454.76(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	40	-0	35	55	68.73	50%	0	85.8	0.8%	-1.6	0.5	67	1.2
2	Dec_5_2023	441.07	450.39	455.72	456.7	456.23	456	456.6(-0.04%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0	-22	-10	-40	32	69.67	50%	0.01	91.7	0.8%	-0.1	0.8	75	1.3
3	Dec_4_2023	441.01	449.38	455.49	456.37	456.22	456.66	456.79(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	40	10	27	77	64.24	50%	0.02	98.3	0.81%	0	0.9	85	1.4
4	Dec_1_2023	440.93	448.3	454.92	455.9	455.92	456.45	459.1(0.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	80	10	71	108	88.99	50%	0.02	107	0.81%	1.7	1.3	89	1.3
5	Nov_30_2023	440.84	446.91	454.03	455.14	455.23	455.78	456.4(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	51	10	30	112	79.66	50%	0.02	110.8	0.8%	-0.3	1.1	92	1.4

6	Nov_29_2023	440.73	445.29	453.37	454.87	455.15	455.39	454.61(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	77	10	55	141	63.1	53%	0.03	101.4	0.8%	-0.5	1	80	1.3
7	Nov_28_2023	440.61	443.55	452.81	454.6	454.89	454.69	454.93(0.1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	35	-0	2	135	62.01	53%	0.04	87.6	0.82%	-0.7	1	80	1.5
8	Nov_27_2023	440.45	441.65	451.43	454.47	454.5	454.91	454.48(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	46	10	12	148	50.41	53%	0.04	78.3	0.82%	-0.3	1.1	81	1.3
9	Nov_24_2023	440.29	439.54	450.11	453.73	453.98	455.09	455.3(0.06%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	130	20	109	191	29.74	52%	0.03	66.7	0.83%	0	1.2	84	1.4
10	Nov_22_2023	440.16	437.45	448.05	452.71	452.8	454.09	455.02(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	142	20	125	193	59.35	53%	0.03	57.1	0.85%	1.1	1.2	86	1.2

11	Nov_21_2023	440.01	435.57	446.29	451.65	451.43	452.87	453.27(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	135	20	112	203	49.16	53%	0.02	53	0.85%	0.7	1.3	89	1.3
12	Nov_20_2023	439.92	434.04	444.66	450.74	450.64	451.52	454.26(0.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	171	10	148	241	69.88	53%	0.03	48.9	0.85%	2.1	1.5	91	1.4
13	Nov_17_2023	439.81	432.3	442.76	447.92	449.43	449.98	450.79(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	148	20	118	238	83.12	52%	0.03	40.1	0.85%	1.3	1.5	92	1.5
14	Nov_16_2023	439.68	430.76	441.13	445.89	446.77	449.76	450.23(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	201	50	173	283	66.51	51%	0.03	34.3	0.85%	0.3	1.6	93	1.5
15	Nov_15_2023	439.54	429.47	439.17	442.61	443.84	448.88	449.68(0.21%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	421	90	432	386	77.17	49%	0.03	26.1	0.86%	0.8	1.8	88	1.6

16	Nov_14_2023	439.4	428.38	436.49	440.12	440.35	443.78	448.73(1.94%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	384	60	392	358	96.98	49%	0.04	19	0.87%	1.5	2	78	1.5
17	Nov_13_2023	439.23	427.58	433.46	437.76	437.63	438.8	440.19(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	173	20	149	243	52.16	46%	0.02	14.8	0.84%	1.1	1.4	65	1.4
18	Nov_10_2023	439.16	427.25	431.09	436.86	436.73	436.91	440.61(1.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	90	0	55	194	89.42	46%	0.01	14.4	0.84%	2.1	1.5	67	1.4
19	Nov_9_2023	439.12	426.7	428.17	435.68	436.09	436.47	433.84(-0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	51	10	15	159	82.94	43%	-0	12.6	0.82%	-2.7	0.8	62	0.9
20	Nov_8_2023	439.13	426.61	426.13	435.06	435.65	436.55	437.25(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	154	20	143	186	61.58	43%	0	14.9	0.82%	0.9	1.2	58	1.6

21	Nov_7_2023	439.13	426.45	424.1	432.15	433.6	435.71	436.93(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	206	40	218	169	64.18	44%	-0	12.1	0.82%	1.5	1.2	53	1.7
22	Nov_6_2023	439.15	426.23	422.61	428.4	429.8	434.76	435.69(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	339	90	391	183	67.68	44%	-0.01	6.7	0.82%	0.7	1.1	46	1.9
23	Nov_3_2023	439.19	425.97	420.94	424.38	425.19	431.48	434.69(0.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	519	110	621	213	100.11	44%	-0.02	-4.2	0.82%	1.2	1.1	45	1.9
24	Nov_2_2023	439.27	425.65	419.41	419.58	420.05	424.85	430.76(1.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	430	80	535	115	94.76	41%	-0.02	-20.1	0.82%	1.5	0.7	47	1.9
25	Nov_1_2023	439.36	425.32	418.77	415.96	415.91	418.9	422.66(1.07%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	216	50	299	-32	97.88	37%		-35.5	0.79%	2	-0.3	38	1.6
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.