Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Sep. 11, 2023

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Apr. 26, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $448.4500 (0.66%) ($446.4700 - $448.7700) on Mon. Sep. 11, 2023.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.66% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $448.4500(0.66%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
VT(96%)    IWF(95%)    IVW(94%)    VUG(94%)    QQQ(93%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.33% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-70%)    VIXM(-62%)    TBT(-32%)    UUP(-30%)    USO(-4%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.33% (StdDev 0.66%)
Hourly BBV 1.6 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $446.86(0.36%)
10 Day Moving Average   $447.85(0.13%)
20 Day Moving Average   $444.16(0.97%)
To recent high   -2%
To recent low   3.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.13% (three month std-dev: 0.66%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 0.17%(67%) Average negative next day return: -0.09%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 0.38%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -0.2%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 0.68%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20231011

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_11_2023	434.73	444.16	447.85	446.86	446.07	446.74	448.45(0.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	119	10	119	117	60.12	61%	0.09	0.9	0.66%	1.6	0.9	62	1.3
2	Sep_8_2023	434.35	443.99	447.08	447.4	446.59	444.79	445.52(0.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-86	-30	-126	33	61.65	60%	0.08	2.7	0.66%	-0.4	0.3	63	1.3
3	Sep_7_2023	434	443.98	446.33	448.37	448.19	445.4	444.85(-0.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-245	-40	-317	-29	70.29	60%	0.07	5.4	0.66%	-0.8	0.2	63	1.2
4	Sep_6_2023	433.68	444.01	446.2	449.6	449.99	448.39	446.22(-0.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-174	-20	-240	25	70.64	60%	0.08	9	0.66%	-1.3	0.4	59	1.4
5	Sep_5_2023	433.35	444.1	445.46	450.19	450.87	450.98	449.24(-0.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	39	10	10	126	55.04	62%	0.13	5.3	0.66%	-1.2	1	57	1.7

6	Sep_1_2023	432.77	444.11	444.48	448.89	449.84	451.58	451.19(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	181	30	186	166	58.74	67%	0.09	-8	0.67%	-0.3	1.4	51	2.3
7	Aug_31_2023	432.38	443.83	443.01	446.65	447.38	450.76	450.35(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	312	60	352	191	66	67%	0.1	-30.9	0.68%	0.5	1.3	53	2.3
8	Aug_30_2023	431.94	443.7	441.57	443.96	444.25	448.09	451.01(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	349	60	409	167	68.99	67%	0.1	-50	0.69%	1.1	1.5	54	2.2
9	Aug_29_2023	431.52	443.58	440.33	442.36	441.91	444	449.16(1.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	271	30	326	105	82.98	67%	0.1	-58.7	0.69%	1.7	1	52	1.7
10	Aug_28_2023	431.11	443.84	439.57	440.16	440.74	440.41	442.76(0.63%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	51	-0	78	-31	61.49	64%	0.03	-62.2	0.67%	1.1	-0.2	41	1.5

11	Aug_25_2023	430.99	444.53	439.98	439.48	440.09	439.82	439.97(0.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-87	-0	-80	-107	102.29	67%	0.07	-58.9	0.68%	0.1	-0.7	34	0.2
12	Aug_24_2023	430.67	445.34	440.49	438.78	439.93	441.07	436.89(-1.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	77	30	115	-39	88.34	65%	0.07	-58.5	0.69%	-1.1	-1.3	38	-0.6
13	Aug_23_2023	430.36	446.14	441.39	438.66	438.49	440.36	443.03(1.11%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	105	30	152	-35	68.2	66%	0.08	-59.6	0.67%	1.6	-0.5	41	0.5
14	Aug_22_2023	430	446.74	441.6	437.98	437.83	438.78	438.15(-0.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	85	10	133	-60	64.92	64%	0.07	-61.3	0.67%	0.6	-1.3	31	-0.5
15	Aug_21_2023	429.72	447.61	442.63	438.93	438.32	436.62	439.34(0.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-118	-30	-104	-160	68.59	64%	0.07	-59.3	0.67%	1.3	-1.3	26	-0.5

16	Aug_18_2023	429.41	448.37	443.74	440.67	439.94	436.89	436.5(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-344	-50	-371	-262	98.75	66%	0.08	-51.8	0.67%	-0.9	-1.9	19	-1.4
17	Aug_17_2023	429.07	449.21	444.83	442.5	442.72	440.03	436.29(-0.76%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-283	-40	-300	-232	95.48	68%	0.09	-47.2	0.68%	-2.2	-2.3	21	-2.3
18	Aug_16_2023	428.7	450.06	446.15	444.43	444.29	442.99	439.64(-0.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-241	-20	-254	-201	80	71%	0.11	-41.7	0.68%	-2	-2.1	34	-1
19	Aug_15_2023	428.24	450.88	447.24	445.65	445.84	445.41	442.89(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-69	-10	-52	-119	75.58	73%	0.11	-30.9	0.68%	-1.9	-1.9	33	-0.8
20	Aug_14_2023	427.76	451.47	448.56	446.82	446.51	445.6	448.04(0.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-86	-20	-75	-118	47.77	78%	0.13	-11.9	0.66%	0.5	-0.9	38	0.9

21	Aug_11_2023	427.22	451.64	449.46	447.35	446.99	446.26	445.65(-0.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-137	-10	-138	-132	68.66	78%	0.13	4.8	0.66%	-0.7	-1.6	37	0.2
22	Aug_10_2023	426.67	451.87	450.56	447.59	448.06	447.42	445.91(0.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-55	-10	-44	-86	92.93	78%	0.13	20.3	0.66%	-0.7	-1.7	42	-0.6
23	Aug_9_2023	426.11	452.1	451.26	448.17	448.45	447.71	445.75(-0.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-98	-10	-97	-100	78.69	78%	0.12	38	0.67%	-0.4	-1.8	42	-0.6
24	Aug_8_2023	425.62	452.18	452.27	449.05	448.83	448.7	448.75(-0.43%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-86	-0	-85	-87	71.29	81%	0.13	45.3	0.66%	-0.1	-0.9	40	-0.7
25	Aug_7_2023	425.05	451.94	452.95	450.59	449.68	449.19	450.71(0.87%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-72	-10	-74	-64	58.25	81%		47.1	0.66%	0.3	-0.3	45	-0.6
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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