Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jul. 26, 2023

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 10, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $455.5100 (0.02%) ($453.3800 - $456.9900) on Wed. Jul. 26, 2023.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.72% (three month average)
RSI   83
Latest Price   $455.5100(0.02%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
VT(96%)    IVW(95%)    IWF(95%)    VUG(95%)    QQQ(93%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.36% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-72%)    VIXM(-64%)    UUP(-33%)    TBT(-33%)    USO(0%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.36% (StdDev 0.72%)
Hourly BBV -0.1 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $453.9(0.35%)
10 Day Moving Average   $452.97(0.56%)
20 Day Moving Average   $447.36(1.82%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   12.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.3
One Month Target Price   > $455.51
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $439.11

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -5.4% away from the target price of 455.51.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.44% (three month std-dev: 0.72%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 43 Average positive next day return: 0.63%(56%) Average negative next day return: -0.74%(44%) Sample size 43 Average positive next three day return: 1.28%(51%) Average negative next three day return: -1.11%(49%) Sample size 43 Average positive next weekly return: 1.66%(63%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.07%(37%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20230826

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_26_2023	419.93	447.36	452.97	453.9	454.26	455.04	455.51(0.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	82	10	63	139	70.88	84%	0.14	76.4	0.72%	-0.1	1.3	83	1.9
2	Jul_25_2023	419.33	446.4	452.06	453.84	453.79	454.41	455.44(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	84	10	63	145	54.96	78%	0.13	75.3	0.72%	1.6	1.4	71	1.2
3	Jul_24_2023	418.8	445.22	450.81	453.59	453.86	453.49	454.2(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	61	-0	39	128	53.96	78%	0.12	65.2	0.76%	0.6	1.3	68	1.6
4	Jul_21_2023	418.28	444.17	449.42	452.92	453.5	453.17	452.18(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-7	-0	-38	87	71.22	78%	0.13	56.7	0.76%	-1.4	1.1	67	1.1
5	Jul_20_2023	417.72	443.38	448.13	452.34	452.78	454.24	452.18(-0.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	79	30	63	125	70.52	78%	0.14	55.5	0.76%	-1.7	1.3	73	1.4

6	Jul_19_2023	417.12	442.51	446.9	451.81	451.95	453.83	455.2(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	229	30	239	197	65.45	78%	0.15	55.9	0.76%	1.2	1.9	81	1.5
7	Jul_18_2023	416.5	441.56	445.62	449.97	450.35	451.32	454.19(0.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	157	20	156	160	80.64	78%	0.14	59.4	0.76%	2.2	2.1	80	1.9
8	Jul_17_2023	415.92	440.75	444.49	447.63	448.79	450.08	450.84(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	151	30	149	157	52.58	78%	0.14	62.9	0.75%	1.7	1.9	82	1.4
9	Jul_14_2023	415.35	440.27	443.67	445.39	446.57	449.37	449.28(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	235	50	249	192	69.76	78%	0.12	73	0.75%	0.4	1.8	76	1.2
10	Jul_13_2023	414.84	439.6	442.53	443.24	443.8	447.51	449.56(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	320	60	354	218	72.28	79%	0.13	76.2	0.75%	1.3	2.3	68	1

11	Jul_12_2023	414.31	438.79	441.19	441.26	441.47	443.77	445.99(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	284	40	316	186	91.76	78%	0.12	83	0.76%	1.2	1.9	67	1.1
12	Jul_11_2023	413.82	437.99	440.2	440.69	439.69	440.08	442.46(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	52	-0	45	71	64.3	77%	0.07	91.1	0.76%	1.3	1.3	58	-0.3
13	Jul_10_2023	413.52	437.34	439.15	440.96	440.03	439.18	439.66(0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-37	-20	-56	22	62.35	77%	0.08	102.5	0.76%	-0.4	0.7	50	-0.5
14	Jul_7_2023	413.18	436.72	438.56	441.68	441.17	439.29	438.55(-0.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-105	-30	-134	-16	86.08	77%	0.08	107.8	0.76%	-0.3	0.5	43	-0.3
15	Jul_6_2023	412.86	436.23	438.37	441.59	441.91	440.88	439.66(-0.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-91	-10	-118	-11	80.54	77%	0.07	106	0.76%	-0.9	0.8	54	-0.6

16	Jul_5_2023	412.59	435.63	437.91	440.94	441.39	443.04	443.13(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	78	30	82	65	58.35	80%	0.08	98.2	0.76%	0.4	1.5	62	0.9
17	Jul_3_2023	412.28	434.86	437.26	439.55	439.67	442.95	443.79(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	276	50	315	157	32.79	80%	0.09	98.3	0.76%	0	1.7	68	1.2
18	Jun_30_2023	411.9	433.78	436.72	437.08	437.4	439.75	443.28(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	285	40	328	155	104.9	82%	0.09	100	0.77%	1.6	1.9	68	1
19	Jun_29_2023	411.53	432.51	436.51	435.06	434.89	436.39	438.11(0.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	113	20	124	80	67.74	82%	0.07	88.3	0.76%	1.3	1.1	67	1
20	Jun_28_2023	411.24	431.64	436.35	434.74	434	435.06	436.39(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	109	10	116	87	75.44	82%	0.05	75.9	0.77%	0.6	0.8	62	1.2

21	Jun_27_2023	411.02	430.85	436.12	434.45	433.84	433.38	436.17(1.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	23	-10	13	54	72.61	82%	0.07	71.5	0.78%	2.1	0.8	63	1.1
22	Jun_26_2023	410.74	429.83	435.55	434.66	434.18	432.95	431.44(-0.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-107	-20	-142	-1	72.61	81%	0.05	69.3	0.77%	-1.3	0.2	57	1
23	Jun_23_2023	410.55	428.89	435.43	436.26	435.32	434.31	433.21(-0.76%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-114	-20	-159	23	92.03	81%	0.04	68.9	0.77%	-1.6	0.6	68	1.1
24	Jun_22_2023	410.37	427.98	434.88	438.14	437.27	435.41	436.51(0.36%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-59	-40	-106	82	70.4	75%	0.06	72	0.76%	0.2	1.1	77	1.4
25	Jun_21_2023	410.11	427.09	434.08	438.17	438.42	436.33	434.94(-0.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-119	-30	-180	64	76.88	76%		69.2	0.79%	-0.9	0.9	70	1.3
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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