Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 20, 2022

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. May. 1, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $446.7800 (-1.1%) ($444.5000 - $458.7400) on Thu. Jan. 20, 2022.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.9% (three month average)
RSI   19
Latest Price   $446.7800(-1.1%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY declines -1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(97%)    IWF(97%)    DIA(94%)    IVE(94%)    IWD(94%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.45% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-46%)    UUP(-28%)    VXX(-11%)    TBT(-8%)    TLT(6%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.45% (StdDev 0.9%)
Hourly BBV -3.4 ()
Intraday Trend -1.5%

Resistance Level   $468.05
5 Day Moving Average   $456.86(-2.21%)
10 Day Moving Average   $462.07(-3.31%)
20 Day Moving Average   $468.05(-4.54%)
To recent high   -6.5%
To recent low   0%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.87% (three month std-dev: 0.9%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 10 Average positive next day return: 0.82%(60%) Average negative next day return: -1.22%(40%) Sample size 10 Average positive next three day return: 2.09%(60%) Average negative next three day return: -2.72%(40%) Sample size 10 Average positive next weekly return: 3.16%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.8%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20220220

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_20_2022	456.74	468.05	462.07	456.86	456.7	453.1	446.78(-1.1%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.2	-340	-60	-361	-275	119.72	48%	-0.01	-23.5	0.9%	-3.4	-2.4	19	-2.2
2	Jan_19_2022	456.79	469.02	464.36	461.71	461.03	456.58	451.75(-1.04%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.4	-334	-70	-361	-252	108	51%	0	-10.6	0.89%	-1.5	-2.4	21	-1.6
3	Jan_18_2022	456.79	469.35	466.97	465.31	465.02	460.31	456.51(-1.77%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.5	-342	-70	-378	-232	109.55	53%	0.02	-4.7	0.88%	-1.2	-2.2	24	-1.1
4	Jan_14_2022	456.68	469.66	469.11	467.11	467.22	465.49	464.75(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-231	-30	-251	-170	95.77	60%	0.04	-3.7	0.85%	-0.9	-0.8	30	0.3
5	Jan_13_2022	456.49	469.8	470.14	467.38	467.21	469.73	464.53(-1.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	29	40	52	-41	90.19	60%	0.04	-2.2	0.87%	-1.6	-0.8	44	0.3

6	Jan_12_2022	456.33	470.12	471.31	468.06	466.89	468.96	471.02(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	228	20	282	65	67.16	62%	0.05	1.5	0.85%	0.9	0.1	57	1
7	Jan_11_2022	456.09	469.76	471.9	467.53	466.1	464.68	469.75(0.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-68	-30	-70	-62	73.69	62%	0.05	-4.4	0.85%	1.4	-0	62	0.8
8	Jan_10_2022	455.86	469.62	472.6	469.09	467.66	464.82	465.51(-0.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-257	-50	-304	-114	116.71	61%	0.05	8.1	0.86%	-0.6	-0.6	68	1
9	Jan_7_2022	455.63	469.9	473.82	471.53	471.52	467.52	466.09(-0.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-212	-60	-265	-54	83.96	62%	0.06	31.1	0.86%	-0.8	-0.6	60	0.7
10	Jan_6_2022	455.36	469.95	474.4	473.31	473.89	470.51	467.94(-0.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-292	-50	-365	-73	86.16	62%	0.07	46.3	0.86%	-1.3	-0.3	53	0.7

11	Jan_5_2022	455.06	470.04	474.52	474.95	475.76	475.53	468.38(-1.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-105	0	-148	26	100.97	64%	0.05	67.9	0.86%	-3.2	-0.3	49	0.9
12	Jan_4_2022	454.81	470.05	474.18	476.77	476.82	477.28	477.55(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	99	10	85	140	68.24	65%	0.07	86.6	0.83%	1.2	1.2	63	1.4
13	Jan_3_2022	454.5	469.12	472.06	476.64	476.61	476	477.71(0.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-3	-10	-30	78	71.76	65%	0.07	79.7	0.84%	0.7	1.3	59	1.4
14	Dec_31_2021	454.17	467.93	470.34	476.55	476.84	476.37	474.96(-0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-14	-10	-39	60	65.14	66%	0.07	71.1	0.85%	-0.9	1	53	1.3
15	Dec_30_2021	453.86	467.05	469.48	475.67	476.63	477.23	476.16(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	73	10	66	95	51.63	64%	0.07	59.5	0.86%	-0.2	1.3	58	1.4

16	Dec_29_2021	453.53	465.79	468.8	473.98	474.84	477.32	477.48(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	178	40	192	134	53.39	64%	0.08	39.6	0.87%	1.3	1.5	55	1.4
17	Dec_28_2021	453.17	464.68	467.34	471.1	471.83	476.03	476.87(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	329	70	379	179	47.04	60%	0.08	23.3	0.87%	0.9	1.6	56	1.4
18	Dec_27_2021	452.81	463.99	466.19	466.72	467.57	472.36	477.26(1.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	380	80	446	180	56.01	60%	0.1	4.1	0.91%	1.4	1.9	63	1.3
19	Dec_23_2021	452.34	463.02	465.36	463.28	462.4	467.64	470.6(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	293	70	345	135	55.57	60%	0.07	-18.9	0.91%	1.2	1.2	63	1.4
20	Dec_22_2021	452.02	462.82	464.86	462.5	460.15	462.77	467.69(1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	233	20	273	112	57.04	61%	0.06	-23.3	0.91%	1.3	0.8	58	1.3

21	Dec_21_2021	451.75	462.78	464.97	463.03	461.16	457.15	463.06(1.78%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-53	-70	-71	3	68.52	60%	0.06	-21.5	0.91%	1	0	61	0.9
22	Dec_20_2021	451.49	462.98	465.48	463.09	462.67	457.54	454.98(-1.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-427	-80	-517	-156	106.06	55%	0.04	-21.2	0.89%	-1	-1.3	52	0.5
23	Dec_17_2021	451.32	463.69	466.05	465.41	464.94	465.16	460.08(-1.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-169	0	-217	-25	134.69	55%	0.04	-10.2	0.9%	-0.9	-0.6	47	0.8
24	Dec_16_2021	451.12	464.16	465.58	467.54	466.77	467.8	466.68(-0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	163	10	170	142	114.9	57%	0.06	4.6	0.9%	0.5	0.4	56	0.8
25	Dec_15_2021	450.84	464.2	464.68	467.47	466.8	464.73	470.35(1.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	-42	-40	-67	35	115.97	58%		7.6	0.89%	1.6	1	50	1
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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