Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SPY: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. Aug. 13, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 17, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $445.9200 (0.18%) ($445.0700 - $445.9400) on Fri. Aug. 13, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.61% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $445.9200(0.18%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock rally for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(97%)    IWF(97%)    DIA(94%)    QQQ(94%)    IVE(93%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.305% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-50%)    UUP(-26%)    VXX(-14%)    TBT(-4%)    TLT(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.305% (StdDev 0.61%)
Hourly BBV 1.2 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $443.92(0.45%)
10 Day Moving Average   $442.3(0.82%)
20 Day Moving Average   $439.54(1.45%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   8.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.3
One Month Target Price   > $445.92
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $432.32

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -2.6% away from the target price of 445.92.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.12% (three month std-dev: 0.61%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 20 Average positive next day return: 0.5%(45%) Average negative next day return: -0.98%(55%) Sample size 20 Average positive next three day return: 1.56%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -1.5%(60%) Sample size 20 Average positive next weekly return: 1.91%(45%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.9%(55%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20210913

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_13_2021	422.84	439.54	442.3	443.92	443.99	444.89	445.92(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	128	10	135	105	39.32	73%	0.14	47.3	0.61%	1.2	1.3	60	1.6
2	Aug_12_2021	422.26	438.81	441.55	443.24	443.12	443.83	445.11(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	84	10	87	74	38.84	66%	0.14	41.7	0.62%	2.4	1.3	61	1.8
3	Aug_11_2021	421.68	438.28	441.07	442.57	442.67	443.08	443.78(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	80	10	83	72	43.91	63%	0.13	43.7	0.68%	1.6	1.2	68	1.9
4	Aug_10_2021	421.12	437.88	440.56	441.61	442.03	442.42	442.68(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	48	10	46	54	43.22	60%	0.12	41	0.69%	0.5	1.1	68	1.7
5	Aug_9_2021	420.61	437.5	440.18	441.3	441.28	442.26	442.13(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	82	20	82	80	40.69	60%	0.13	43.8	0.7%	0.6	1.1	72	1.7

6	Aug_6_2021	420.07	437.23	440.03	440.39	440.55	441.64	442.49(0.17%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	131	20	135	119	46.59	60%	0.12	44.1	0.71%	1.1	1.3	79	1.6
7	Aug_5_2021	419.55	436.85	439.75	439.6	439.72	440.3	441.76(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	92	10	86	108	38.82	60%	0.11	44.1	0.71%	1	1.2	64	1.1
8	Aug_4_2021	419.1	436.31	439.14	439.38	439.13	439.45	438.98(-0.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	30	0	13	80	46.1	60%	0.11	47.8	0.71%	0.3	0.7	55	0.9
9	Aug_3_2021	418.66	436.08	438.74	439.35	439.34	439.14	441.15(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	43	-0	29	84	57.85	60%	0.11	56.7	0.71%	1.7	1.3	55	0.9
10	Aug_2_2021	418.2	435.65	437.78	438.91	439.29	438.8	437.59(-0.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-31	-10	-55	41	58.52	59%	0.11	61.4	0.7%	-1.3	0.5	53	-0.3

11	Jul_30_2021	417.76	435.46	436.65	439.6	439.21	439.55	438.51(-0.49%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-17	0	-35	36	68.77	59%	0.11	75.9	0.71%	-1	0.8	51	0.5
12	Jul_29_2021	417.3	435.06	435.96	439.88	439.61	439.78	440.65(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	88	0	90	82	46.74	59%	0.12	84.3	0.71%	1	1.4	56	0.7
13	Jul_28_2021	416.78	434.43	435.32	438.84	439.14	438.88	438.83(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	18	-0	9	46	52.32	59%	0.13	83.3	0.71%	0.5	1.1	61	0.5
14	Jul_27_2021	416.25	433.89	435	437.99	438.11	439.44	438.97(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	70	20	71	66	63.48	59%	0.14	80.6	0.71%	-0.8	1.3	55	0.3
15	Jul_26_2021	415.67	433.31	434.61	436.41	436.73	439.41	441.02(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	286	50	329	157	43.59	59%	0.14	76.6	0.71%	1.1	1.9	59	0.4

16	Jul_23_2021	415.08	432.58	434.11	433.22	433.81	436.79	439.94(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	286	50	337	131	63.44	61%	0.15	73	0.71%	1.7	1.9	57	-0.2
17	Jul_22_2021	414.44	431.83	433.58	431.5	430.69	434.04	435.46(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	201	50	240	83	47.7	59%	0.14	65.9	0.71%	1.3	1	57	-0
18	Jul_21_2021	413.88	431.22	433.14	431.36	430.36	430.84	434.55(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	191	0	228	81	64.34	59%	0.12	59.8	0.72%	1.1	0.8	59	0.7
19	Jul_20_2021	413.4	430.67	433.1	431.7	430.68	427.34	431.06(1.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-226	-60	-267	-101	99.33	57%	0.1	57.3	0.72%	0.7	0.1	56	-0.5
20	Jul_19_2021	412.97	430.2	433.31	432.61	432.71	429.88	425.11(-1.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-345	-50	-413	-140	147.33	54%	0.11	54.4	0.71%	-1.5	-1	50	-2.8

21	Jul_16_2021	412.52	429.8	434.27	435	435.22	434.02	431.34(-0.78%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-106	-20	-144	9	75.48	58%	0.12	50.4	0.69%	-2.1	0.3	62	0.3
22	Jul_15_2021	412.02	429.36	434.25	435.84	435.88	435.53	434.75(-0.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-22	-10	-52	68	54.85	63%	0.11	52.1	0.68%	-1.2	0.9	72	1
23	Jul_14_2021	411.58	428.73	433.64	435.07	435.68	436.43	436.24(0.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	101	20	92	128	63.92	63%	0.12	48.9	0.69%	-0.3	1.2	79	1.6
24	Jul_13_2021	411.08	428.12	432.81	434.71	433.96	436.23	435.59(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	132	30	126	149	52.13	63%	0.12	51.5	0.69%	-0.3	1.3	76	1.2
25	Jul_12_2021	410.59	427.57	432.01	434.18	433.3	434.94	437.08(0.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	263	20	278	217	51.22	63%		53.8	0.69%	1.2	1.7	82	1.2
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.