Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Apr. 5, 2021

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Thu. Apr. 25, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $406.3600 (1.44%) ($403.3800 - $406.9400) on Mon. Apr. 5, 2021.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.98% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $406.3600(1.44%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY advances 0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(96%)    IWF(96%)    DIA(94%)    IWD(93%)    QQQ(93%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.49% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-51%)    UUP(-28%)    VXX(-16%)    IGOV(-5%)    TBT(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.49% (StdDev 0.98%)
Hourly BBV 1.4 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $398.76(1.91%)
10 Day Moving Average   $395.2(2.82%)
20 Day Moving Average   $393.49(3.27%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   9.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   2.5
One Month Target Price   > $406.36
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $386.45

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -79.9000 k (Fri. Feb. 19, 2021) Decrease
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -0% away from the target price of 406.36.
$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.33% (three month std-dev: 0.98%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 45 Average positive next day return: 0.71%(47%) Average negative next day return: -0.64%(53%) Sample size 45 Average positive next three day return: 1.25%(49%) Average negative next three day return: -1.55%(51%) Sample size 45 Average positive next weekly return: 2.48%(58%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.92%(42%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20210505

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_5_2021	379.46	393.49	395.2	398.76	398.78	402.25	406.36(1.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	277	60	313	167	91.4	63%	0.21	73.7	0.98%	1.4	2.5	60	1.3
2	Apr_1_2021	378.68	392.32	393.42	396.69	396.25	397.85	400.61(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	164	20	187	94	97.15	59%	0.12	61.1	0.98%	1.3	1.5	58	1.3
3	Mar_31_2021	378.22	391.16	392.44	394.5	394.74	395.32	396.33(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	92	10	109	41	112.28	57%	0.12	46.5	0.98%	1.3	0.9	54	1.2
4	Mar_30_2021	377.78	390.43	392.43	392.74	392.57	394.66	394.73(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	55	40	67	19	75.96	57%	0.11	30.3	0.98%	0.6	0.8	58	1.2
5	Mar_29_2021	377.36	390.02	392.49	391.7	391.39	394.17	395.78(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	188	50	223	84	107.6	57%	0.12	25.2	0.98%	1.4	1.1	63	1

6	Mar_26_2021	376.89	389.67	392.47	391.06	390.37	390.48	395.98(1.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	101	-0	116	57	110.83	57%	0.13	22.9	0.98%	1.3	1.1	69	1.4
7	Mar_25_2021	376.41	388.9	392.23	389.76	389.94	388.6	389.7(0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-84	-20	-103	-27	113.74	55%	0.13	9.1	0.97%	-0.1	0.1	61	1.1
8	Mar_24_2021	375.93	388.56	392.63	390.11	390.44	390.27	387.52(-0.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-66	-0	-90	6	96.73	55%	0.14	4.2	0.97%	-2.3	-0.2	67	1
9	Mar_23_2021	375.4	388.77	392.93	392.06	391.36	391.27	389.5(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	10	-10	-10	68	90.18	55%	0.17	13.9	0.97%	-1.5	0.1	61	1.1
10	Mar_22_2021	374.78	388.67	392.8	393.34	392.59	390.6	392.59(0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-51	-40	-86	53	73.29	55%	0.18	16	0.96%	0.4	0.7	57	1.9

11	Mar_19_2021	374.09	388.37	391.82	394.11	393.79	391.45	389.48(-0.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-159	-40	-212	1	112.56	55%	0.17	16.1	0.95%	-0.9	0.2	50	1.6
12	Mar_18_2021	373.47	388.39	391.34	395.02	395.13	394.59	391.48(-1.45%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-42	-10	-79	68	113.91	55%	0.18	20.3	0.96%	-2.3	0.6	61	1.2
13	Mar_17_2021	372.79	388.32	390	395.43	395.01	396.14	397.26(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	70	20	53	121	95.61	58%	0.16	22.9	0.94%	1.3	1.6	64	2.1
14	Mar_16_2021	372.18	388	388.4	393.9	394.38	395.68	395.91(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	151	30	157	134	73.32	58%	0.16	17.5	0.95%	0.9	1.5	52	1.9
15	Mar_15_2021	371.59	387.76	387.38	392.15	392.69	393.89	396.41(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	123	30	128	107	73.2	60%	0.14	10.5	0.94%	1.4	1.7	56	2.4

16	Mar_12_2021	371.06	387.5	386.56	389.21	390.51	393.09	394.06(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	150	60	167	100	64.43	60%	0.14	-0.8	0.95%	0.7	1.3	55	1.8
17	Mar_11_2021	370.55	387.28	385.16	387.11	388.26	391.49	393.53(1.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	259	70	305	122	85.38	60%	0.14	-9	0.96%	1.2	1.3	51	1.5
18	Mar_10_2021	370.02	387.05	383.97	383.75	385.02	387.93	389.58(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	202	60	250	56	109.4	58%	0.13	-22	0.95%	1	0.6	48	1.2
19	Mar_9_2021	369.54	387.06	384.05	382.12	382.21	385.03	387.17(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	132	50	173	9	113.09	58%	0.13	-22.7	0.95%	0.9	0	44	1.2
20	Mar_8_2021	369.07	387.21	384.01	381.99	381.63	382.11	381.72(-0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	69	10	102	-29	121.05	56%	0.1	-10	0.94%	0.6	-1.2	40	0.4

21	Mar_5_2021	368.71	387.54	384.55	383.56	382.69	379.4	383.56(1.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-137	-70	-142	-123	151.67	56%	0.1	17.4	0.93%	0.9	-0.9	40	0.6
22	Mar_4_2021	368.33	387.7	385.16	382.92	384.28	381.15	376.72(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-276	-50	-302	-197	181.84	52%	0.08	22.1	0.91%	-1.8	-2.5	36	-0.4
23	Mar_3_2021	368.03	388.06	386.62	384.05	385.2	385.98	381.42(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-112	20	-112	-111	116.93	55%	0.09	42.9	0.9%	-2	-1.7	40	0.3
24	Mar_2_2021	367.71	388.12	387.73	386.14	385.83	387.4	386.54(-0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	125	30	160	19	78.7	59%	0.1	55.6	0.89%	0.3	-0.4	45	1
25	Mar_1_2021	367.35	387.68	388.28	386.33	386.03	384.42	389.58(2.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	9	-30	23	-32	104.44	59%		40.3	0.88%	1.4	0.4	48	1
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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