Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 20, 2004

Trading Signals: SPY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Jun. 7, 2024)

(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
SPY latest price $109.6200 (0.32%) ($109.0400 - $109.8700) on Thu. May. 20, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.82% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $109.6200(0.32%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SPY declines -0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SPY declines -1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SPY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(91%)    IWM(89%)    XLK(89%)    XLY(87%)    EWG(83%)
Factors Impacting SPY price   SPY will decline at least -0.41% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-34%)    SHY(-22%)    TIP(-12%)    REMX(-0%)    LQD(18%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.41% (StdDev 0.82%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $107.13(-2.27%)
Resistance Level   $111.1
5 Day Moving Average   $109.54(0.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $109.66(-0.04%)
20 Day Moving Average   $111.1(-1.33%)
To recent high   -5.8%
To recent low   0.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   37.8000 k (Sat. Apr. 25, 2020) Increase
Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. SPY price fluctuates within 1.66% (three month std-dev: 0.82%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20040620

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_20_2004	113.19	111.1	109.66	109.54			109.62(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-20	-10000	-1	-77	38.13	38%	-0.01	-51.2	0.82%	0	-0.8	44	0
2	May_19_2004	113.2	111.32	109.86	109.61			109.27(-0.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-23	-10000	-5	-78	55.02	38%	-0.02	-48.5	0.82%	0	-1.1	39	0
3	May_18_2004	113.22	111.5	110.19	109.85			109.65(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-17	-10000	-0	-69	30.21	38%	-0.02	-49	0.82%	0	-1.1	36	0
4	May_17_2004	113.24	111.62	110.42	109.87			109.1(-0.85%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-20	-10000	1	-82	55.08	40%	-0.01	-52.2	0.82%	0	-1.4	29	0
5	May_14_2004	113.25	111.86	110.72	109.81			110.04(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-25	-10000	0	-98	54.13	41%	-0.03	-58.3	0.82%	0	-1.1	31	0

6	May_13_2004	113.28	112.05	110.82	109.8			109.99(-0.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-37	-10000	-8	-122	57.51	41%	0	-62.3	0.83%	0	-1.3	31	0
7	May_12_2004	113.28	112.21	111.01	110.16			110.45(0.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-39	-10000	-10	-126	90.9	41%	0.01	-63.8	0.83%	0	-1.1	33	0
8	May_11_2004	113.27	112.36	111.24	110.63			109.75(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-36	-10000	-10	-112	48.35	43%	0	-62.5	0.82%	0	-1.7	39	0
9	May_10_2004	113.27	112.55	111.68	111.09			108.83(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-32	-10000	-14	-85	75.36	41%	0	-63.4	0.83%	0	-2.5	40	0
10	May_7_2004	113.27	112.86	112.23	111.75			109.96(-1.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-18	-10000	-4	-58	60.96	43%	0.01	-61.5	0.81%	0	-2.4	36	0

11	May_6_2004	113.26	113.09	112.68	111.95			111.81(-0.86%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-12	-10000	-0	-48	55.01	48%	0.03	-63.2	0.79%	0	-1.2	41	0
12	May_5_2004	113.23	113.23	112.92	111.95			112.78(0.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-10	-10000	0	-41	34.43	49%	0.04	-57.4	0.8%	0	-0.4	50	0
13	May_4_2004	113.18	113.33	112.91	111.96			112.06(-0.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-20	-10000	-10	-49	51.2	48%	0.04	-47.5	0.8%	0	-1.1	44	0
14	May_3_2004	113.14	113.48	112.92	112.41			112.15(1.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-17	-10000	-9	-41	33.76	48%	0.04	-25.7	0.8%	0	-1.2	46	0
15	Apr_30_2004	113.09	113.61	113.09	112.82			110.96(-0.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-20	-10000	-15	-35	48.69	46%	0.03	-2	0.79%	0	-2.3	33	0

16	Apr_29_2004	113.06	113.77	113.39	113.5			111.83(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-11	-10000	-11	-12	69.71	46%	0.04	29.8	0.78%	0	-2	39	0
17	Apr_28_2004	113.01	113.85	113.53	113.99			112.82(-1.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.4	1	-10000	1	1	50.18	45%	0.05	69.3	0.77%	0	-1.2	41	0
18	Apr_27_2004	112.95	113.86	113.59	113.96			114.3(0.09%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	7	-10000	11	-6	43.49	46%	0.06	89.2	0.77%	0	0.5	45	0
19	Apr_26_2004	112.88	113.78	113.48	113.48			114.2(-0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-9	-10000	2	-40	35.57	48%	0.07	85.7	0.78%	0	0.5	43	0
20	Apr_23_2004	112.8	113.64	113.52	113.41			114.36(0.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-8	-10000	3	-41	29.42	48%	0.06	69.9	0.8%	0	0.7	48	0

21	Apr_22_2004	112.73	113.48	113.5	113.3			114.25(1.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-6	-10000	6	-41	62.15	48%	0.06	52.4	0.8%	0	0.6	52	0
22	Apr_21_2004	112.66	113.26	113.52	113.04			112.67(0.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-14	-10000	-3	-47	50.3	47%	0.05	28.3	0.78%	0	-0.4	50	0
23	Apr_20_2004	112.6	113.12	113.74	113.19			111.92(-1.68%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-13	-10000	-6	-32	53.36	47%	0.04	21.1	0.78%	0	-0.7	47	0
24	Apr_19_2004	112.55	113.03	114.08	113.44			113.83(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-6	-10000	-5	-7	28.28	50%	0.06	19.5	0.75%	0	0.4	61	0
25	Apr_16_2004	112.48	112.9	114.16	113.64			113.83(0.77%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	4	-10000	-3	24	47.06	50%		18.4	0.76%	0	0.5	69	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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