Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 19, 2017

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $97.6548 (-0.05%) ($97.0759 - $97.8510) on Tue. Dec. 19, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.1% (three month average)
RSI   54
Latest Price   $97.6548(-0.05%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.55% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-15%)    VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-9%)    IGOV(-4%)    SHY(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.55% (StdDev 1.1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $96.07(1.65%)
10 Day Moving Average   $95.51(2.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $96.86(0.82%)
To recent high   -4.6%
To recent low   12.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 2.91% (three month std-dev: 1.1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20180119

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_19_2017	91.69	96.86	95.51	96.07			97.65(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	15	-10000	12	25	3.03	48%	0.15	-35.4	1.1%	0	0.3	54	0
2	Dec_18_2017	91.55	97	95.14	95.42			97.7(1.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-1	-10000	9	-30	5.38	50%	0.16	-38.5	1.1%	0	0.2	36	0
3	Dec_15_2017	91.4	97.09	94.75	94.96			96.01(1.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-17	-10000	5	-82	21.54	50%	0.13	-41.6	1.09%	0	-0.4	29	0
4	Dec_14_2017	91.28	97.35	94.74	94.72			94.46(-0.04%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.1	-34	-10000	-3	-127	4.14	47%	0.1	-39.1	1.08%	0	-0.9	18	0
5	Dec_13_2017	91.19	97.59	94.97	94.87			94.5(0.06%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-36	-10000	1	-145	3.96	47%	0.12	-41.7	1.08%	0	-1	24	0

6	Dec_12_2017	91.08	97.87	95.15	94.83			94.44(-0.98%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-44	-10000	1	-178	5.21	47%	0.11	-44.6	1.08%	0	-1.1	22	0
7	Dec_11_2017	90.98	98.15	95.73	94.76			95.38(0.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-43	-10000	5	-185	3.31	50%	0.12	-48.6	1.07%	0	-1	30	0
8	Dec_8_2017	90.87	98.37	96.22	94.51			94.8(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-52	-10000	-5	-192	4.86	50%	0.11	-52.6	1.09%	0	-1.3	34	0
9	Dec_7_2017	90.77	98.59	96.93	94.77			95.24(0.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-51	-10000	-7	-182	5.42	50%	0.11	-52.4	1.1%	0	-1.2	31	0
10	Dec_6_2017	90.67	98.88	97.53	95.12			94.31(0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-47	-10000	-8	-164	5.24	50%	0.12	-46.2	1.1%	0	-1.7	39	0

11	Dec_5_2017	90.56	99.22	98.31	95.54			94.1(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.6	-56	-10000	-25	-150	6.5	48%	0.11	-41.8	1.1%	0	-2.1	36	0
12	Dec_4_2017	90.46	99.58	99.04	96.85			94.1(-2.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-45	-10000	-24	-106	10.08	48%	0.11	-23.9	1.11%	0	-2.6	36	0
13	Dec_1_2017	90.36	99.89	99.67	98.17			96.14(-0.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-34	-10000	-23	-67	9.94	51%	0.16	-2.4	1.08%	0	-2.2	42	0
14	Nov_30_2017	90.22	100.03	100.23	99.41			96.98(0.62%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-17	-10000	-17	-15	6.69	53%	0.14	29.1	1.07%	0	-2	47	0
15	Nov_29_2017	90.09	100.12	100.48	100.31			96.38(-4.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.8	-15	-10000	-21	2	17.24	53%	0.17	59.6	1.08%	0	-2.7	39	0

16	Nov_28_2017	89.94	100.24	100.89	101.45			100.64(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	11	-10000	-2	49	3.99	61%	0.22	105.8	0.92%	0	0.3	50	0
17	Nov_27_2017	89.74	100.09	100.83	101.54			100.73(-1.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	16	-10000	4	50	2.98	61%	0.22	104.4	0.92%	0	0.5	50	0
18	Nov_24_2017	89.54	99.93	100.72	101.37			102.32(0.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	14	-10000	4	45	0.6	64%	0.37	100.7	0.89%	0	1.6	60	0
19	Nov_22_2017	89.21	99.59	100.38	101.2			101.46(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	-10000	11	46	1.53	66%	0.13	78.3	0.88%	0	1	62	0
20	Nov_21_2017	89.09	99.28	100.3	100.71			102.12(1.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	19	-10000	10	45	2.14	66%	0.27	70.1	0.88%	0	1.5	66	0

21	Nov_20_2017	88.85	98.98	100.13	100.26			101.09(1.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	14	-10000	5	42	1.85	64%	0.25	67.9	0.88%	0	1.1	62	0
22	Nov_17_2017	88.63	98.7	100.09	100.03			99.88(-1.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	15	-10000	2	54	4.48	58%	0.24	65.2	0.88%	0	0.6	62	0
23	Nov_16_2017	88.42	98.48	100.07	99.96			101.45(2.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	25	-10000	11	68	3.7	61%	0.23	63.9	0.91%	0	1.4	70	0
24	Nov_15_2017	88.22	98.14	99.77	99.45			98.99(-0.93%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	10	-10000	-9	65	2.8	57%	0.22	60.9	0.87%	0	0.4	71	0
25	Nov_14_2017	88.03	97.94	99.7	99.83			99.92(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	24	-10000	-4	106	1.55	62%		66.4	0.85%	0	0.9	78	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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