Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Apr. 20, 2017

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $76.3536 (1.44%) ($75.4347 - $76.4310) on Thu. Apr. 20, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.78% (three month average)
RSI   42
Latest Price   $76.3536(1.44%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.39% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-10%)    IGOV(-4%)    SHY(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.39% (StdDev 0.78%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $74.96(1.86%)
10 Day Moving Average   $75.29(1.41%)
20 Day Moving Average   $75.97(0.5%)
To recent high   -1%
To recent low   7.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.29% (three month std-dev: 0.78%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170520

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_20_2017	72.9	75.97	75.29	74.96			76.35(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.4	-11	-10000	14	-84	2.26	67%	0.12	-34.9	0.78%	0	0.4	42	0
2	Apr_19_2017	72.81	75.96	75.25	74.55			75.27(0.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-30	-10000	-0	-121	3.59	64%	0.1	-47.3	0.77%	0	-0.7	37	0
3	Apr_18_2017	72.74	75.97	75.38	74.56			74.86(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-37	-10000	-7	-127	2.13	68%	0.1	-47.7	0.78%	0	-1.1	31	0
4	Apr_17_2017	72.67	76.08	75.57	74.76			74.56(1.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-39	-10000	-13	-118	2.19	68%	0.08	-38.4	0.8%	0	-1.6	30	0
5	Apr_13_2017	72.61	76.18	75.83	75.15			73.76(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-36	-10000	-16	-94	2.71	68%	0.07	-24.6	0.81%	0	-2.8	26	0

6	Apr_12_2017	72.56	76.31	76.18	75.65			74.31(-1.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-23	-10000	-12	-57	7.89	62%	0.08	-1.1	0.82%	0	-3	38	0
7	Apr_11_2017	72.5	76.42	76.44	76.02			75.29(-0.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-15	-10000	-9	-31	6.76	67%	0.1	31	0.83%	0	-2.1	43	0
8	Apr_10_2017	72.43	76.42	76.62	76.3			75.86(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-6	-10000	-7	-3	1.96	67%	0.12	58.5	0.83%	0	-1.2	58	0
9	Apr_7_2017	72.34	76.44	76.73	76.51			76.54(0.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0	-10000	-3	10	0.86	70%	0.14	78.3	0.82%	0	0.2	47	0
10	Apr_6_2017	72.24	76.39	76.74	76.62			76.24(0.05%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-1	-10000	-6	16	1.01	70%	0.14	77.4	0.83%	0	-0.2	49	0

11	Apr_5_2017	72.14	76.32	76.72	76.8			76.2(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	4	-10000	-3	25	1.45	70%	0.14	79.2	0.83%	0	-0.2	51	0
12	Apr_4_2017	72.04	76.25	76.73	76.91			76.65(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	6	-10000	-2	31	1.49	70%	0.17	75.5	0.83%	0	0.5	55	0
13	Apr_3_2017	71.92	76.16	76.62	76.91			76.92(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	9	-10000	0	37	1.26	70%	0.17	75.9	0.82%	0	0.9	63	0
14	Mar_31_2017	71.8	76.03	76.61	76.98			77.11(-0.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	15	-10000	3	49	0.87	70%	0.18	72.1	0.82%	0	1.2	61	0
15	Mar_30_2017	71.67	75.9	76.54	76.87			77.12(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	19	-10000	7	54	0.59	66%	0.18	67.5	0.83%	0	1.3	64	0

16	Mar_29_2017	71.54	75.75	76.45	76.63			76.73(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	16	-10000	3	53	1.18	66%	0.15	63.4	0.85%	0	1.1	67	0
17	Mar_28_2017	71.43	75.65	76.39	76.52			77.04(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	24	-10000	10	64	2.33	60%	0.17	57	0.85%	0	1.4	70	0
18	Mar_27_2017	71.31	75.49	76.24	76.52			76.9(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	13	-10000	0	50	1.25	60%	0.18	43.9	0.88%	0	1.5	70	0
19	Mar_24_2017	71.18	75.37	76.12	76.2			76.55(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	17	-10000	1	64	1.62	60%	0.18	46.2	0.88%	0	1.3	69	0
20	Mar_23_2017	71.05	75.26	76	76.18			75.95(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	16	-10000	-2	71	1.33	60%	0.17	46.2	0.88%	0	0.8	67	0

21	Mar_22_2017	70.93	75.17	75.89	76.24			76.18(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	21	-10000	0	82	3.31	60%	0.17	50	0.88%	0	1.2	71	0
22	Mar_21_2017	70.81	75.1	75.75	76.23			75.44(-1.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1	21	-10000	-0	83	5.38	58%	0.14	61.3	0.88%	0	0.4	58	0
23	Mar_20_2017	70.71	75.09	75.67	76.24			76.9(0.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	30	-10000	7	98	1.14	64%	0.17	69	0.84%	0	2.1	80	0
24	Mar_17_2017	70.59	74.96	75.42	76.01			76.43(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	27	-10000	7	86	2.05	67%	0.17	80.8	0.84%	0	2	66	0
25	Mar_16_2017	70.47	74.85	75.21	75.8			76.23(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	27	-10000	10	78	1.6	62%		94.3	0.85%	0	2.1	68	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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