Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Nov. 29, 2016

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Tue. Jun. 11, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $68.3832 (-0.38%) ($68.0953 - $68.7670) on Tue. Nov. 29, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.11% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $68.3832(-0.38%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 2.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.555% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-10%)    IGOV(-4%)    SHY(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.555% (StdDev 1.11%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $68.63(-0.36%)
10 Day Moving Average   $67.91(0.7%)
20 Day Moving Average   $66.51(2.82%)
To recent high   -0.6%
To recent low   11.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 2.48% (three month std-dev: 1.11%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161229

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_29_2016	63.74	66.51	67.91	68.63			68.38(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	36	-10000	2	137	2.95	67%	0.19	52	1.11%	0	1.1	64	0
2	Nov_28_2016	63.62	66.36	67.6	68.54			68.64(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	38	-10000	6	133	3.27	67%	0.2	51	1.11%	0	1.4	66	0
3	Nov_25_2016	63.49	66.18	67.32	68.31			68.82(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	42	-10000	9	141	0.44	67%	0.4	49.6	1.11%	0	1.7	74	0
4	Nov_23_2016	63.24	65.99	66.86	67.97			68.61(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	40	-10000	10	129	1.82	67%	0.24	49.5	1.11%	0	1.9	71	0
5	Nov_22_2016	63.09	65.83	66.54	67.59			68.72(1.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	41	-10000	14	122	3.41	67%	0.08	50.3	1.11%	0	2.4	69	0

6	Nov_21_2016	63.04	65.67	66.23	67.08			67.93(0.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	40	-10000	16	111	3.67	66%	0.22	47.8	1.1%	0	2.2	64	0
7	Nov_18_2016	62.9	65.56	66.01	66.51			67.49(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	28	-10000	9	85	5.35	66%	0.21	44.5	1.1%	0	2.1	58	0
8	Nov_17_2016	62.77	65.43	65.65	66.17			67.11(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	28	-10000	16	65	1.52	66%	0.22	41.2	1.1%	0	2.2	59	0
9	Nov_16_2016	62.63	65.33	65.36	65.58			66.68(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	12	-10000	7	26	1.83	66%	0.22	28.3	1.1%	0	2	55	0
10	Nov_15_2016	62.49	65.22	65.13	65.33			66.17(1.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	2	-10000	1	4	2.95	66%	0.24	16.8	1.1%	0	1.5	52	0

11	Nov_14_2016	62.34	65.18	64.99	65.28			65.08(-1.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-5	-10000	-4	-7	2.93	63%	0.19	16.3	1.09%	0	-0.2	46	0
12	Nov_11_2016	62.22	65.16	65.03	65.43			65.79(2.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	9	-10000	11	2	6.58	63%	0.16	8.7	1.08%	0	1.1	48	0
13	Nov_10_2016	62.12	65.11	64.95	65.05			64.19(-1.86%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-6	-10000	-0	-22	5.86	60%	0.15	-23.9	1.04%	0	-1.5	45	0
14	Nov_9_2016	62.03	65.13	65.08	65.06			65.41(-0.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-1	-10000	5	-19	5.22	65%	0.18	-43	1.02%	0	0.5	51	0
15	Nov_8_2016	61.92	65.12	65.09	64.88			65.94(0.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.9	-1	-10000	6	-21	0.94	65%	0.18	-61.6	1.01%	0	1.5	60	0

16	Nov_7_2016	61.81	65.08	65.09	64.68			65.82(3%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.8	-6	-10000	2	-29	2.1	65%	0.21	-70.5	1.01%	0	1.2	53	0
17	Nov_4_2016	61.68	65.11	65.06	64.61			63.9(-0.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-12	-10000	-7	-27	3.05	59%	0.16	-62	0.96%	0	-1.7	47	0
18	Nov_3_2016	61.58	65.25	65.2	64.84			64.24(-0.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-9	-10000	-8	-13	2.69	59%	0.16	-52.3	0.96%	0	-1.4	46	0
19	Nov_2_2016	61.48	65.38	65.31	65.08			64.51(-0.62%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-4	-10000	-7	7	1.83	59%	0.16	-37.4	0.96%	0	-1.2	53	0
20	Nov_1_2016	61.38	65.47	65.34	65.3			64.91(-0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-1	-10000	-6	14	2.7	59%	0.18	-19.6	0.97%	0	-0.8	48	0

21	Oct_31_2016	61.27	65.52	65.39	65.49			65.51(0.71%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	5	-10000	-3	27	1.57	59%	0.18	-4.9	0.96%	0	-0	52	0
22	Oct_28_2016	61.16	65.55	65.31	65.58			65.05(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	3	-10000	-1	16	2.15	59%	0.16	14.8	0.96%	0	-0.7	38	0
23	Oct_27_2016	61.06	65.62	65.3	65.6			65.43(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	1	-10000	1	2	2.56	59%	0.16	30.8	0.96%	0	-0.3	38	0
24	Oct_26_2016	60.96	65.64	65.21	65.57			65.62(-0.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0	-10000	6	-18	1.13	64%	0.18	32.7	0.96%	0	-0	39	0
25	Oct_25_2016	60.85	65.6	65.17	65.38			65.81(-0.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-7	-10000	3	-37	1.42	64%		25.4	1.01%	0	0.3	44	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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