Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Feb. 22, 2016

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $47.9335 (1.63%) ($47.6456 - $48.1350) on Mon. Feb. 22, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.7% (three month average)
RSI   48
Latest Price   $47.9335(1.63%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 1.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.85% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    UUP(-13%)    TLT(-10%)    IPO(-6%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.85% (StdDev 1.7%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $47.12(1.73%)
10 Day Moving Average   $45.86(4.52%)
20 Day Moving Average   $46.24(3.66%)
To recent high   -10.2%
To recent low   9.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 2.66% (three month std-dev: 1.7%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160322

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_22_2016	49.52	46.24	45.86	47.12			47.93(1.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	-10000	16	25	2.58	44%	0.02	33.5	1.7%	0	1.4	48	0
2	Feb_19_2016	49.51	46.17	45.63	46.47			47.17(0.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	10	-10000	18	-15	2.63	44%	0	17.8	1.68%	0	0.9	46	0
3	Feb_18_2016	49.51	46.1	45.64	45.79			47.08(-0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	4	-10000	16	-33	1.43	44%	0.02	1.2	1.69%	0	0.9	55	0
4	Feb_17_2016	49.5	46.01	45.57	45.2			47.27(2.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.8	-4	-10000	13	-56	2.01	44%	0.04	-21.8	1.69%	0	1.1	55	0
5	Feb_16_2016	49.48	45.9	45.47	44.69			46.17(3.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.3	-16	-10000	7	-83	4.21	41%	0.08	-41.8	1.66%	0	0.2	48	0

6	Feb_12_2016	49.44	45.84	45.62	44.45			44.65(1.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-28	-10000	-7	-92	2.22	37%	-0.02	-53.8	1.6%	0	-1	44	0
7	Feb_11_2016	49.45	45.96	45.91	44.7			43.79(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-36	-10000	-21	-81	4.02	34%	-0.04	-48.8	1.59%	0	-1.9	37	0
8	Feb_10_2016	49.47	46.09	46.15	45.46			44.1(-1.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-22	-10000	-14	-46	2.39	34%	-0.04	-47.1	1.58%	0	-1.9	44	0
9	Feb_9_2016	49.49	46.26	46.37	45.97			44.75(-0.43%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-11	-10000	-10	-15	3.44	34%	-0.04	-48.6	1.59%	0	-1.6	51	0
10	Feb_8_2016	49.51	46.37	46.57	46.34			44.94(-2.13%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.5	-10	-10000	-16	10	5.54	34%	-0.04	-58.2	1.59%	0	-1.6	52	0

11	Feb_5_2016	49.53	46.46	46.72	46.94			45.92(-3.49%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.2	5	-10000	-10	51	5.34	37%	-0.06	-67.2	1.59%	0	-0.6	59	0
12	Feb_4_2016	49.56	46.53	46.81	47.3			47.58(1.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	26	-10000	10	74	2.74	40%	0	-79.5	1.57%	0	1.2	51	0
13	Feb_3_2016	49.56	46.57	46.64	46.95			46.68(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.3	16	-10000	3	56	8.27	37%	-0.04	-97.1	1.55%	0	0.1	54	0
14	Feb_2_2016	49.58	46.73	46.51	46.95			46.61(-2.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	8	-10000	0	33	4.61	37%	0	-85.7	1.55%	0	-0.1	47	0
15	Feb_1_2016	49.58	46.91	46.37	46.83			47.92(0.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	14	-10000	10	24	2.39	39%	0	-76.1	1.52%	0	0.7	53	0

16	Jan_29_2016	49.58	47.04	46.05	46.48			47.71(4.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	3	-10000	6	-7	5.64	37%	0.02	-83.6	1.52%	0	0.4	54	0
17	Jan_28_2016	49.57	47.22	45.97	46.28			45.83(-0.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-5	-10000	-0	-21	3.24	30%	-0.02	-74.3	1.46%	0	-0.8	43	0
18	Jan_27_2016	49.58	47.54	45.99	46.29			46.07(-1.11%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-7	-10000	5	-41	3.71	30%	-0.04	-62.6	1.47%	0	-0.7	38	0
19	Jan_26_2016	49.6	47.81	46.11	46.12			46.59(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-11	-10000	9	-70	3.96	29%	-0.06	-55.7	1.46%	0	-0.5	35	0
20	Jan_25_2016	49.63	48.07	46.13	45.82			46.2(-1.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-23	-10000	8	-114	2.25	29%	0	-54.5	1.47%	0	-0.8	31	0

21	Jan_22_2016	49.63	48.35	46.17	45.55			46.72(1.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-44	-10000	-3	-166	4	34%	0	-57.4	1.48%	0	-0.7	31	0
22	Jan_21_2016	49.63	48.58	46.21	45.65			45.85(1.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-49	-10000	-1	-194	4.3	31%	0	-54	1.51%	0	-1	24	0
23	Jan_20_2016	49.63	48.86	46.49	45.68			45.23(0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-66	-10000	-12	-226	5.38	31%	0	-52.6	1.5%	0	-1.4	20	0
24	Jan_19_2016	49.63	49.14	46.96	46.11			45.11(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-64	-10000	-11	-222	7.57	31%	0.04	-51	1.5%	0	-1.6	23	0
25	Jan_15_2016	49.61	49.46	47.49	46.49			44.81(-5.1%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-63	-10000	-10	-220	5.29	31%		-53	1.48%	0	-1.9	21	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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