Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Sep. 30, 2015

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $46.8500 (3.36%) ($46.0704 - $46.9815) on Wed. Sep. 30, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.66% (three month average)
RSI   48
Latest Price   $46.8500(3.36%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VUG(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.83% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    UUP(-12%)    TLT(-11%)    IGOV(-5%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.83% (StdDev 1.66%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $45.79(2.31%)
10 Day Moving Average   $46.25(1.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $46.69(0.34%)
To recent high   -9.5%
To recent low   9.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.91% (three month std-dev: 1.66%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151030

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_30_2015	49.94	46.69	46.25	45.79			46.85(3.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-12	-10000	6	-67	3.16	45%	-0.12	-8.9	1.66%	0	0.2	48	0
2	Sep_29_2015	50	46.61	46.37	45.57			45.33(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-22	-10000	-4	-75	4.07	40%	-0.16	-4.4	1.6%	0	-1.3	36	0
3	Sep_28_2015	50.08	46.68	46.63	45.73			45.02(-2.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-26	-10000	-11	-69	3.04	40%	-0.16	16.4	1.63%	0	-1.8	28	0
4	Sep_25_2015	50.16	46.77	46.87	46.14			46(0.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-15	-10000	-6	-40	2.13	39%	-0.14	48	1.65%	0	-0.9	54	0
5	Sep_24_2015	50.23	46.8	47	46.36			45.75(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-16	-10000	-11	-30	3.89	39%	-0.14	64.2	1.64%	0	-1.3	46	0

6	Sep_23_2015	50.3	46.77	47.15	46.79			45.77(-0.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-11	-10000	-13	-6	1.77	39%	-0.12	64.2	1.65%	0	-1.1	50	0
7	Sep_22_2015	50.36	46.65	47.29	47.28			46.1(-2.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	0	-10000	-10	30	5.33	39%	-0.16	43.2	1.64%	0	-0.5	60	0
8	Sep_21_2015	50.44	46.53	47.46	47.66			47.08(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	14	-10000	-1	59	2.85	41%	-0.12	30	1.63%	0	0.4	54	0
9	Sep_18_2015	50.5	46.38	47.37	47.71			47.1(-1.69%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	14	-10000	-0	57	4.38	42%	-0.1	18.6	1.63%	0	0.5	53	0
10	Sep_17_2015	50.55	46.28	47.33	47.73			47.91(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	19	-10000	4	63	2.83	43%	-0.1	10.4	1.64%	0	1.1	59	0

11	Sep_16_2015	50.6	46.2	47.17	47.57			48.22(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	23	-10000	7	69	1.22	43%	-0.1	1.6	1.63%	0	1.4	68	0
12	Sep_15_2015	50.65	46.13	46.86	47.32			48.01(1.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	20	-10000	2	74	3.89	43%	-0.1	-7.5	1.63%	0	1.3	74	0
13	Sep_14_2015	50.7	46.11	46.7	47.25			47.31(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	30	-10000	7	100	1.48	43%	-0.12	-14.5	1.62%	0	0.9	70	0
14	Sep_11_2015	50.76	46.1	46.64	46.98			47.2(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	30	-10000	3	109	3.56	43%	-0.12	-22.2	1.62%	0	0.8	65	0
15	Sep_10_2015	50.82	46.12	46.55	46.87			47.11(0.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	33	-10000	5	117	5.35	45%	-0.14	-25.2	1.62%	0	0.7	58	0

16	Sep_9_2015	50.89	46.18	46.33	46.69			46.96(-1.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	32	-10000	10	99	6.77	45%	-0.12	-27.8	1.64%	0	0.5	50	0
17	Sep_8_2015	50.95	46.24	45.95	46.32			47.69(3.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	18	-10000	6	52	5.11	43%	-0.1	-32.7	1.63%	0	0.9	51	0
18	Sep_4_2015	51	46.31	45.51	46.09			45.94(-1.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-3	-10000	-5	4	3.41	40%	-0.14	-31.7	1.55%	0	-0.2	41	0
19	Sep_3_2015	51.07	46.42	45.32	46.25			46.67(1%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-2	-10000	2	-14	2.84	41%	-0.14	-30.8	1.55%	0	0.1	45	0
20	Sep_2_2015	51.14	46.49	45.15	46.19			46.21(2.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-3	-10000	8	-37	4.05	40%	-0.1	-33.9	1.54%	0	-0.2	42	0

21	Sep_1_2015	51.19	46.61	45.16	45.91			45.09(-3.11%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-7	-10000	13	-65	6.83	37%	-0.16	-38.7	1.51%	0	-0.8	35	0
22	Aug_31_2015	51.27	46.77	45.34	45.47			46.54(-0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-9	-10000	20	-97	2.98	39%	-0.12	-46.8	1.47%	0	-0.1	40	0
23	Aug_28_2015	51.33	46.87	45.44	44.81			46.74(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-23	-10000	17	-144	4.91	39%	-0.12	-53.4	1.47%	0	-0.1	36	0
24	Aug_27_2015	51.39	46.97	45.49	44.26			46.34(3.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-40	-10000	8	-184	5.56	43%	-0.12	-57.5	1.46%	0	-0.3	41	0
25	Aug_26_2015	51.45	47.13	45.61	44.01			44.85(4.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-60	-10000	-11	-206	4.75	40%		-59.9	1.48%	0	-1.1	35	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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