Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Aug. 31, 2015

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $46.5400 (-0.42%) ($46.1549 - $47.0754) on Mon. Aug. 31, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.47% (three month average)
RSI   40
Latest Price   $46.5400(-0.42%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -2.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VUG(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.735% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-19%)    UUP(-11%)    TLT(-11%)    IGOV(-5%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.735% (StdDev 1.47%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

Resistance Level   $46.77
5 Day Moving Average   $45.47(2.35%)
10 Day Moving Average   $45.34(2.65%)
20 Day Moving Average   $46.77(-0.49%)
To recent high   -16.9%
To recent low   8.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 4.02% (three month std-dev: 1.47%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151001

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_31_2015	51.27	46.77	45.34	45.47			46.54(-0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-9	-10000	20	-97	2.98	39%	-0.12	-46.8	1.47%	0	-0.1	40	0
2	Aug_28_2015	51.33	46.87	45.44	44.81			46.74(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-23	-10000	17	-144	4.91	39%	-0.12	-53.4	1.47%	0	-0.1	36	0
3	Aug_27_2015	51.39	46.97	45.49	44.26			46.34(3.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-40	-10000	8	-184	5.56	43%	-0.12	-57.5	1.46%	0	-0.3	41	0
4	Aug_26_2015	51.45	47.13	45.61	44.01			44.85(4.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-60	-10000	-11	-206	4.75	40%	-0.14	-59.9	1.48%	0	-1.1	35	0
5	Aug_25_2015	51.52	47.34	45.97	44.36			42.89(-0.85%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-76	-10000	-28	-220	6.31	34%	-0.17	-56.3	1.35%	0	-2.3	20	0

6	Aug_24_2015	51.61	47.66	46.54	45.2			43.25(-1.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-67	-10000	-30	-178	9.92	34%	-0.15	-55.4	1.36%	0	-2.6	27	0
7	Aug_21_2015	51.69	47.92	47.19	46.14			43.95(-2.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-48	-10000	-23	-124	10.57	35%	-0.15	-57.5	1.35%	0	-3	27	0
8	Aug_20_2015	51.77	48.15	47.66	46.86			45.09(-3.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-37	-10000	-18	-94	5.4	37%	-0.12	-66	1.32%	0	-3	29	0
9	Aug_19_2015	51.83	48.37	48	47.43			46.62(-1.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-29	-10000	-13	-77	7.77	40%	-0.12	-78.1	1.27%	0	-2.4	32	0
10	Aug_18_2015	51.89	48.48	48.23	47.82			47.09(-1.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-22	-10000	-9	-59	5.43	40%	-0.1	-81.2	1.27%	0	-2.1	38	0

11	Aug_17_2015	51.94	48.61	48.36	48.1			47.94(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-21	-10000	-11	-52	3.16	42%	-0.08	-79.5	1.26%	0	-1	44	0
12	Aug_14_2015	51.98	48.7	48.44	48.43			47.57(-0.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-10	-10000	-5	-26	2.29	42%	-0.06	-63.4	1.25%	0	-1.6	50	0
13	Aug_13_2015	52.01	48.83	48.59	48.59			47.92(-1.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-4	-10000	-2	-8	1.62	42%	-0.06	-53.8	1.26%	0	-1.3	51	0
14	Aug_12_2015	52.04	48.95	48.75	48.65			48.59(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-2	-10000	-2	-2	3.24	44%	-0.1	-41.5	1.25%	0	-0.5	46	0
15	Aug_11_2015	52.09	49.03	48.8	48.7			48.47(-2.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	3	-10000	2	7	2.84	44%	-0.1	-32.1	1.25%	0	-0.7	50	0

16	Aug_10_2015	52.14	49.13	48.85	48.65			49.59(2.52%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.2	4	-10000	6	-2	4.55	47%	-0.1	-34.2	1.22%	0	0.6	48	0
17	Aug_7_2015	52.19	49.15	48.68	48.48			48.37(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-11	-10000	-4	-33	2.58	42%	-0.1	-45.3	1.19%	0	-1	40	0
18	Aug_6_2015	52.24	49.21	48.66	48.6			48.25(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-19	-10000	-9	-48	4.23	42%	-0.1	-53.5	1.19%	0	-1.2	37	0
19	Aug_5_2015	52.29	49.25	48.76	48.87			48.81(1.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-12	-10000	-2	-41	3.12	40%	-0.1	-62.5	1.18%	0	-0.6	39	0
20	Aug_4_2015	52.34	49.28	48.74	48.92			48.23(-1.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-18	-10000	-5	-55	3.85	38%	-0.1	-68.8	1.19%	0	-1.3	35	0

21	Aug_3_2015	52.39	49.4	48.89	49.06			48.75(-0.48%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-8	-10000	6	-51	2.85	38%	-0.06	-63.9	1.19%	0	-0.8	36	0
22	Jul_31_2015	52.42	49.51	48.99	48.89			48.98(-1.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-12	-10000	6	-64	2.16	43%	-0.08	-78.9	1.2%	0	-0.6	41	0
23	Jul_30_2015	52.46	49.64	49.1	48.72			49.56(0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-16	-10000	2	-69	3.8	43%	-0.04	-85.7	1.25%	0	-0.1	49	0
24	Jul_29_2015	52.48	49.72	49.15	48.65			49.1(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-12	-10000	4	-61	3.96	43%	-0.06	-91.7	1.25%	0	-0.6	54	0
25	Jul_28_2015	52.51	49.83	49.26	48.54			48.91(2.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-21	-10000	-6	-64	7.11	43%		-105.7	1.25%	0	-0.9	48	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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