Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Apr. 23, 2015

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Mon. Jun. 24, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $53.1993 (-1.03%) ($52.7579 - $53.4248) on Thu. Apr. 23, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.32% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $53.1993(-1.03%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.66% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-20%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-10%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.66% (StdDev 1.32%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $52.85(0.66%)
10 Day Moving Average   $52.73(0.89%)
20 Day Moving Average   $52.28(1.76%)
To recent high   -3.1%
To recent low   7.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.36% (three month std-dev: 1.32%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150523

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_23_2015	51.87	52.28	52.73	52.85			53.2(-1.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	13	-10000	3	42	2.62	58%	0.02	-2.2	1.32%	0	1.3	64	0
2	Apr_22_2015	51.86	52.16	52.65	52.75			53.75(1.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	16	-10000	5	47	2.49	58%	0.04	-21.1	1.32%	0	2.1	70	0
3	Apr_21_2015	51.84	52.12	52.47	52.58			52.8(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	14	-10000	5	41	2.01	57%	0.04	-27.3	1.3%	0	1	58	0
4	Apr_20_2015	51.82	52.15	52.37	52.58			52.46(0.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	7	-10000	0	26	1.78	57%	0.02	-27	1.31%	0	0.4	49	0
5	Apr_17_2015	51.81	52.23	52.3	52.42			52.03(-1.28%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	3	-10000	-4	22	2.82	57%	0	-15.3	1.31%	0	-0.2	51	0

6	Apr_16_2015	51.81	52.29	52.26	52.57			52.7(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	11	-10000	1	42	5.41	57%	0.04	-3.4	1.31%	0	0.4	69	0
7	Apr_15_2015	51.79	52.32	52.14	52.53			52.94(1.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	16	-10000	5	48	3.19	57%	0.04	0	1.31%	0	0.7	67	0
8	Apr_14_2015	51.77	52.31	52.03	52.34			51.97(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	8	-10000	1	27	2.92	55%	0.04	-1.6	1.29%	0	-0.4	42	0
9	Apr_13_2015	51.75	52.36	52.07	52.3			52.45(-0.69%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	7	-10000	4	16	3	55%	0.06	-2.7	1.29%	0	0.1	41	0
10	Apr_10_2015	51.72	52.37	52.03	52.15			52.81(0.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	4	-10000	7	-7	1.51	53%	0.06	-10.4	1.29%	0	0.5	40	0

11	Apr_9_2015	51.69	52.33	51.79	51.9			52.5(0.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-7	-10000	6	-44	2.61	53%	0.08	-26.2	1.3%	0	0.2	44	0
12	Apr_8_2015	51.65	52.33	51.62	51.69			51.99(0.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-20	-10000	0	-79	1.92	56%	0.06	-39.9	1.29%	0	-0.3	42	0
13	Apr_7_2015	51.62	52.32	51.73	51.68			51.73(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-22	-10000	-4	-77	1.88	56%	0.08	-49.7	1.33%	0	-0.6	44	0
14	Apr_6_2015	51.58	52.39	51.91	51.82			51.71(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-18	-10000	-2	-66	3.28	53%	0.14	-54.6	1.34%	0	-0.7	42	0
15	Apr_2_2015	51.51	52.46	52.14	51.89			51.57(0.27%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-6	-10000	7	-46	2.87	50%	0.08	-53.5	1.38%	0	-0.9	46	0

16	Apr_1_2015	51.47	52.58	52.32	51.66			51.43(-0.98%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-9	-10000	4	-49	3.18	50%	0.06	-59.5	1.38%	0	-1.2	49	0
17	Mar_31_2015	51.44	52.7	52.51	51.52			51.94(-1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-18	-10000	-7	-52	2.74	50%	0.08	-62.1	1.39%	0	-0.8	49	0
18	Mar_30_2015	51.4	52.81	52.61	51.79			52.47(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-14	-10000	-7	-35	5.05	50%	0.1	-51.2	1.38%	0	-0.3	54	0
19	Mar_27_2015	51.35	52.92	52.67	52.05			52.03(3.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-15	-10000	-12	-25	7.8	50%	0.08	-37.3	1.37%	0	-0.8	45	0
20	Mar_26_2015	51.31	53	52.73	52.49			50.41(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-16	-10000	-17	-13	11.84	46%	0.04	-25.2	1.32%	0	-2.4	35	0

21	Mar_25_2015	51.29	53.18	52.93	53.08			50.78(-4.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.6	-10	-10000	-14	3	10.44	46%	0.06	-8.4	1.32%	0	-2.7	33	0
22	Mar_24_2015	51.26	53.33	53.12	53.59			53.27(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	9	-10000	3	25	2.61	53%	0.1	12.6	1.18%	0	-0.1	44	0
23	Mar_23_2015	51.21	53.36	53	53.51			53.75(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	4	-10000	4	3	2.75	53%	0.12	14.6	1.17%	0	0.5	46	0
24	Mar_20_2015	51.15	53.32	52.92	53.39			54.23(1.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	4	-10000	11	-16	3.1	55%	0.14	10.4	1.18%	0	1.3	41	0
25	Mar_19_2015	51.08	53.27	52.8	53.05			53.39(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-3	-10000	9	-39	2.37	53%		0.8	1.17%	0	0.2	49	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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