Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 2, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $51.6792 (1.37%) ($50.9736 - $51.8649) on Tue. Dec. 2, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.5% (three month average)
RSI   82
Latest Price   $51.6792(1.37%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    XLY(64%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.75% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-10%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.75% (StdDev 1.5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1%

5 Day Moving Average   $51.14(1.05%)
10 Day Moving Average   $50.38(2.58%)
20 Day Moving Average   $49.33(4.76%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   23.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 2.59% (three month std-dev: 1.5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150102

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_2_2014	47.02	49.33	50.38	51.14			51.68(1.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	37	-10000	8	123	5.36	52%	0.11	76.1	1.5%	0	1.8	82	0
2	Dec_1_2014	46.97	49.14	50.05	50.85			50.98(-1.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	33	-10000	6	114	3.27	52%	0.09	82.1	1.49%	0	1.6	77	0
3	Nov_28_2014	46.93	48.97	49.81	50.63			51.58(0.67%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	36	-10000	10	113	1.72	52%	0.11	90	1.49%	0	2.3	87	0
4	Nov_26_2014	46.88	48.79	49.46	50.24			51.23(2.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	35	-10000	13	99	1.61	52%	0.09	100.5	1.47%	0	2.4	78	0
5	Nov_25_2014	46.84	48.56	49.13	49.76			50.22(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	24	-10000	7	74	2.38	50%	0.09	105.7	1.45%	0	1.8	72	0

6	Nov_24_2014	46.8	48.38	48.91	49.5			50.26(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	25	-10000	11	66	1.79	50%	0.06	106.8	1.45%	0	2	75	0
7	Nov_21_2014	46.77	48.19	48.7	49.12			49.88(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	19	-10000	8	50	2.1	50%	0.06	105	1.45%	0	1.8	72	0
8	Nov_20_2014	46.74	47.98	48.5	48.85			49.59(1.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	16	-10000	8	39	1.9	50%	0.06	102.3	1.45%	0	1.6	73	0
9	Nov_19_2014	46.71	47.78	48.35	48.56			48.86(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	10	-10000	5	26	1.27	49%	0.04	93.7	1.44%	0	1	59	0
10	Nov_18_2014	46.69	47.58	48.29	48.39			48.94(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	12	-10000	5	31	2.48	49%	0.06	94.8	1.44%	0	1.1	74	0

11	Nov_17_2014	46.66	47.41	48.19	48.23			48.32(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	8	-10000	0	33	1.6	49%	0.06	90.2	1.44%	0	0.7	71	0
12	Nov_14_2014	46.63	47.2	48.16	48.22			48.56(0.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	15	-10000	4	46	1.84	49%	0.06	87.3	1.44%	0	0.9	75	0
13	Nov_13_2014	46.6	46.96	48.16	48.08			48.14(0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	13	-10000	-1	55	1.64	50%	0.04	83.7	1.43%	0	0.7	78	0
14	Nov_12_2014	46.58	46.74	48.08	48.11			48.01(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	18	-10000	-2	79	0.7	50%	0.06	71.7	1.44%	0	0.7	80	0
15	Nov_11_2014	46.55	46.48	47.96	48.17			48.11(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	26	-10000	1	101	0.78	51%	0.04	59.2	1.44%	0	0.8	84	0

16	Nov_10_2014	46.53	46.22	47.82	48.14			48.25(0.76%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	29	-10000	1	112	1.62	51%	0.06	48.8	1.45%	0	1	76	0
17	Nov_7_2014	46.5	45.9	47.65	48.1			47.89(-0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	34	-10000	1	134	3.18	50%	0.04	37.4	1.45%	0	0.9	81	0
18	Nov_6_2014	46.48	45.63	47.45	48.07			48.26(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	39	-10000	1	154	2.58	50%	0.04	29.2	1.45%	0	1.2	85	0
19	Nov_5_2014	46.46	45.46	47.17	48.04			48.32(0.68%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	52	-10000	10	177	2.84	48%	0.06	28.5	1.45%	0	1.4	86	0
20	Nov_4_2014	46.43	45.35	46.83	47.71			47.99(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	-10000	8	181	1.12	48%	0.04	25.3	1.46%	0	1.4	88	0

21	Nov_3_2014	46.41	45.2	46.56	47.44			48.01(0.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	56	-10000	9	196	2.29	48%	0.06	17.6	1.46%	0	1.5	88	0
22	Oct_31_2014	46.38	45.09	46.17	47.14			47.74(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	61	-10000	12	207	5.15	46%	0.06	10.6	1.46%	0	1.5	89	0
23	Oct_30_2014	46.35	45.01	45.75	46.74			48.14(3.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	62	-10000	16	201	1.64	48%	0.09	4.7	1.48%	0	1.8	84	0
24	Oct_29_2014	46.31	44.89	45.28	46.19			46.67(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	50	-10000	12	165	3	45%	0.04	-7.3	1.44%	0	1.1	55	0
25	Oct_28_2014	46.29	44.86	44.88	45.81			46.64(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	35	-10000	8	114	2.98	45%		-18	1.44%	0	1.1	49	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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