Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Nov. 5, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $48.3181 (0.68%) ($47.8168 - $48.4202) on Wed. Nov. 5, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.45% (three month average)
RSI   86
Latest Price   $48.3181(0.68%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 4.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.725% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-10%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.725% (StdDev 1.45%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $48.04(0.58%)
10 Day Moving Average   $47.17(2.43%)
20 Day Moving Average   $45.46(6.29%)
To recent high   -1%
To recent low   15.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 4.53% (three month std-dev: 1.45%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141205

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_5_2014	46.46	45.46	47.17	48.04			48.32(0.68%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	52	-10000	10	177	2.84	48%	0.06	28.5	1.45%	0	1.4	86	0
2	Nov_4_2014	46.43	45.35	46.83	47.71			47.99(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	-10000	8	181	1.12	48%	0.04	25.3	1.46%	0	1.4	88	0
3	Nov_3_2014	46.41	45.2	46.56	47.44			48.01(0.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	56	-10000	9	196	2.29	48%	0.06	17.6	1.46%	0	1.5	88	0
4	Oct_31_2014	46.38	45.09	46.17	47.14			47.74(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	61	-10000	12	207	5.15	46%	0.06	10.6	1.46%	0	1.5	89	0
5	Oct_30_2014	46.35	45.01	45.75	46.74			48.14(3.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	62	-10000	16	201	1.64	48%	0.09	4.7	1.48%	0	1.8	84	0

6	Oct_29_2014	46.31	44.89	45.28	46.19			46.67(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	50	-10000	12	165	3	45%	0.04	-7.3	1.44%	0	1.1	55	0
7	Oct_28_2014	46.29	44.86	44.88	45.81			46.64(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	35	-10000	8	114	2.98	45%	0.04	-18	1.44%	0	1.1	49	0
8	Oct_27_2014	46.27	44.87	44.48	45.55			46.52(1.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	32	-10000	16	81	2.24	45%	0.04	-21.9	1.44%	0	1	53	0
9	Oct_24_2014	46.25	44.91	44	45.04			45.75(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	14	-10000	14	15	2.42	41%	0.04	-30.3	1.44%	0	0.5	46	0
10	Oct_23_2014	46.23	44.93	43.65	44.6			45.37(1.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-3	-10000	11	-46	3.59	39%	0.02	-40.8	1.44%	0	0.2	44	0

11	Oct_22_2014	46.22	45	43.61	44.24			44.79(-1.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-8	-10000	14	-72	4.98	40%	0.02	-48.2	1.45%	0	-0.1	43	0
12	Oct_21_2014	46.21	45.15	43.72	43.8			45.33(3.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-10	-10000	18	-94	4.41	40%	0.04	-53.6	1.45%	0	0.1	44	0
13	Oct_20_2014	46.19	45.25	43.7	43.25			43.97(0.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-25	-10000	15	-146	3.54	37%	0.02	-60.5	1.4%	0	-0.6	33	0
14	Oct_17_2014	46.18	45.43	43.91	42.8			43.56(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-41	-10000	8	-186	3.83	36%	0.02	-64.4	1.4%	0	-0.9	30	0
15	Oct_16_2014	46.17	45.66	44.18	42.55			43.56(2.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-59	-10000	-11	-203	3.83	38%	0	-65.4	1.43%	0	-1	39	0

16	Oct_15_2014	46.17	45.92	44.44	42.9			42.59(-0.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-70	-10000	-25	-205	4.88	35%	0	-60.8	1.41%	0	-1.6	31	0
17	Oct_14_2014	46.17	46.2	44.82	43.66			42.6(2.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-59	-10000	-18	-180	9.58	35%	-0.06	-55.3	1.41%	0	-1.9	29	0
18	Oct_13_2014	46.2	46.48	45.31	44.23			41.71(-1.43%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-63	-10000	-30	-163	6.48	32%	-0.02	-54	1.38%	0	-2.7	28	0
19	Oct_10_2014	46.21	46.78	45.93	45.16			42.31(-6.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-50	-10000	-27	-117	16.97	33%	0	-55.7	1.37%	0	-3.3	29	0
20	Oct_9_2014	46.21	47.06	46.38	46			45.31(-2.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-31	-10000	-7	-101	3.81	38%	0.09	-61.6	1.11%	0	-1.9	35	0

21	Oct_8_2014	46.17	47.21	46.57	46			46.4(2.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-27	-10000	0	-109	7.8	41%	0.11	-62.8	1.07%	0	-1	36	0
22	Oct_7_2014	46.12	47.29	46.73	46.18			45.43(-1.94%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-43	-10000	-17	-122	3.99	37%	0.09	-64	1.04%	0	-2.2	35	0
23	Oct_6_2014	46.08	47.44	46.94	46.58			46.33(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-34	-10000	-11	-101	4.59	39%	0.11	-57.6	1.02%	0	-1.5	41	0
24	Oct_3_2014	46.03	47.55	47.07	46.85			46.54(0.8%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-18	-10000	1	-73	2.63	41%	0.11	-46.1	1.02%	0	-1.4	48	0
25	Oct_2_2014	45.98	47.64	47.24	46.82			46.17(-0.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-25	-10000	-9	-73	6.94	41%		-44.9	1.02%	0	-2.1	43	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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