Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Oct. 8, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $46.3962 (2.13%) ($45.0313 - $46.4612) on Wed. Oct. 8, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.07% (three month average)
RSI   36
Latest Price   $46.3962(2.13%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.535% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-9%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-4%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.535% (StdDev 1.07%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.1%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $43(-7.32%)
Resistance Level   $47.21
5 Day Moving Average   $46.18(0.47%)
10 Day Moving Average   $46.57(-0.37%)
20 Day Moving Average   $47.21(-1.72%)
To recent high   -4.9%
To recent low   4%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.8% (three month std-dev: 1.07%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141108

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_8_2014	46.17	47.21	46.57				46.4(2.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-27	-10000	0	-109	7.8	41%	0.11	-62.8	1.07%	0	-1	36	0
2	Oct_7_2014	46.12	47.29	46.73	46.18			45.43(-1.94%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-43	-10000	-17	-122	3.99	37%	0.09	-64	1.04%	0	-2.2	35	0
3	Oct_6_2014	46.08	47.44	46.94	46.58			46.33(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-34	-10000	-11	-101	4.59	39%	0.11	-57.6	1.02%	0	-1.5	41	0
4	Oct_3_2014	46.03	47.55	47.07	46.85			46.54(0.8%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-18	-10000	1	-73	2.63	41%	0.11	-46.1	1.02%	0	-1.4	48	0
5	Oct_2_2014	45.98	47.64	47.24	46.82			46.17(-0.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-25	-10000	-9	-73	6.94	41%	0.11	-44.9	1.02%	0	-2.1	43	0

6	Oct_1_2014	45.93	47.75	47.5	47.03			46.4(-2.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-24	-10000	-13	-55	3.39	43%	0.11	-36.7	1.02%	0	-2.2	41	0
7	Sep_30_2014	45.88	47.84	47.68	47.35			47.44(-0.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-7	-10000	-0	-29	1.87	46%	0.11	-19.8	1%	0	-0.8	46	0
8	Sep_29_2014	45.83	47.87	47.72	47.36			47.71(2.82%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-8	-10000	0	-32	1.81	46%	0.15	-14.4	1.01%	0	-0.3	47	0
9	Sep_26_2014	45.76	47.89	47.67	47.35			46.4(-1.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-27	-10000	-16	-58	3.39	41%	0.11	-10.8	0.94%	0	-2.8	35	0
10	Sep_25_2014	45.71	47.96	47.8	47.71			47.19(-1.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-22	-10000	-15	-43	2.18	44%	0.13	12.9	0.92%	0	-1.9	40	0

11	Sep_24_2014	45.65	47.98	47.9	48.03			48.02(1.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-5	-10000	-1	-15	1.6	46%	0.15	39.5	0.9%	0	0.1	48	0
12	Sep_23_2014	45.58	47.98	47.91	48.06			47.46(-0.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-6	-10000	-3	-14	2.29	44%	0.13	42	0.89%	0	-1.2	44	0
13	Sep_22_2014	45.52	47.95	47.98	48.13			47.68(-1.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	3	-10000	5	-4	2.23	44%	0.15	54.5	0.89%	0	-0.6	48	0
14	Sep_19_2014	45.45	47.94	48.06	48.02			48.22(-1.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	3	-10000	6	-6	1.86	46%	0.15	56.7	0.88%	0	0.7	53	0
15	Sep_18_2014	45.38	47.9	48.07	47.89			48.79(1.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	2	3	-10000	6	-7	1.62	48%	0.15	62	0.86%	0	2	65	0

16	Sep_17_2014	45.31	47.82	48.01	47.89			48.14(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.9	-2	-10000	0	-9	1.64	45%	0.15	73.3	0.85%	0	0.8	61	0
17	Sep_16_2014	45.24	47.77	48	47.76			47.83(1.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-2	-10000	-3	-0	2.22	45%	0.15	86.7	0.85%	0	0.1	59	0
18	Sep_15_2014	45.17	47.72	48.02	47.82			47.13(-0.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	-8	-10000	-13	9	1.8	42%	0.13	92.2	0.83%	0	-1.2	50	0
19	Sep_12_2014	45.11	47.7	48.12	48.09			47.54(-1.35%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	3	-10000	-9	40	4.34	47%	0.11	110.4	0.84%	0	-0.3	53	0
20	Sep_11_2014	45.06	47.63	48.13	48.27			48.19(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	16	-10000	-0	63	0.96	50%	0.13	114.9	0.83%	0	0.9	71	0

21	Sep_10_2014	45	47.53	48.07	48.27			48.11(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	17	-10000	0	68	1.34	50%	0.13	109.3	0.83%	0	0.8	73	0
22	Sep_9_2014	44.94	47.4	48	48.28			48.12(-0.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	20	-10000	1	75	1.04	50%	0.13	97.2	0.83%	0	0.9	77	0
23	Sep_8_2014	44.88	47.27	47.92	48.25			48.49(0.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	25	-10000	5	85	1.43	50%	0.09	88.6	0.82%	0	1.3	91	0
24	Sep_5_2014	44.84	47.1	47.82	48.15			48.45(0.48%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	31	-10000	9	95	0.9	50%	0.16	77.6	0.82%	0	1.4	92	0
25	Sep_4_2014	44.77	46.91	47.72	47.98			48.22(0.21%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	31	-10000	8	101	1.5	50%		65.5	0.82%	0	1.2	93	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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