Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Aug. 13, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Mon. Jun. 10, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $45.9505 (1.23%) ($45.5327 - $45.9969) on Wed. Aug. 13, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.87% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $45.9505(1.23%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.435% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-9%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.435% (StdDev 0.87%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $45.27(1.5%)
10 Day Moving Average   $45.27(1.5%)
20 Day Moving Average   $45.77(0.39%)
To recent high   -3.2%
To recent low   11.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.77% (three month std-dev: 0.87%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140913

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_13_2014	43.9	45.77	45.27	45.27			45.95(1.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-3	-10000	8	-37	2.64	55%	0.09	-52.5	0.87%	0	0.2	44	0
2	Aug_12_2014	43.86	45.83	45.28	45.11			45.39(-0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-10	-10000	6	-57	1.44	56%	0.09	-53.6	0.87%	0	-0.5	38	0
3	Aug_11_2014	43.82	45.91	45.29	45			45.43(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-25	-10000	-2	-94	2.1	56%	0.09	-55.1	0.89%	0	-0.6	32	0
4	Aug_8_2014	43.78	45.99	45.3	45.04			44.97(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-33	-10000	-5	-115	1.2	54%	0.05	-52.9	0.88%	0	-1.2	33	0
5	Aug_7_2014	43.76	46.08	45.36	45.14			44.62(-1.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-37	-10000	-7	-127	2.69	54%	0.09	-54.9	0.88%	0	-1.7	32	0

6	Aug_6_2014	43.72	46.2	45.54	45.27			45.12(0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-37	-10000	-10	-119	2.69	57%	0.07	-55	0.87%	0	-1.4	41	0
7	Aug_5_2014	43.69	46.29	45.67	45.47			44.87(-1.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-34	-10000	-7	-116	2.84	57%	0.09	-50	0.87%	0	-1.9	32	0
8	Aug_4_2014	43.65	46.39	45.92	45.6			45.63(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-25	-10000	0	-101	1.6	61%	0.14	-44.9	0.84%	0	-1.1	41	0
9	Aug_1_2014	43.59	46.45	46.06	45.59			45.43(0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-27	-10000	-1	-105	3.1	61%	0.09	-38.2	0.84%	0	-1.5	38	0
10	Jul_31_2014	43.55	46.55	46.2	45.61			45.27(-1.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-36	-10000	-12	-108	3.36	61%	0.09	-26.3	0.84%	0	-2	40	0

11	Jul_30_2014	43.51	46.63	46.31	45.85			46.15(1.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-28	-10000	-4	-99	3.84	67%	0.12	-9.8	0.81%	0	-0.8	44	0
12	Jul_29_2014	43.46	46.66	46.43	45.92			45.53(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-39	-10000	-21	-93	3.01	65%	0.12	4.2	0.8%	0	-2	39	0
13	Jul_28_2014	43.41	46.69	46.58	46.31			45.55(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-26	-10000	-16	-55	3.44	65%	0.09	27.9	0.8%	0	-2.2	41	0
14	Jul_25_2014	43.37	46.71	46.74	46.6			45.57(-1.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-17	-10000	-13	-27	4.21	55%	0.12	43.1	0.8%	0	-2.2	39	0
15	Jul_24_2014	43.32	46.72	46.88	46.85			46.44(-0.1%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.8	-1	-10000	1	-5	1.7	61%	0.12	54.1	0.87%	0	-0.5	42	0

16	Jul_23_2014	43.27	46.69	46.92	46.83			46.49(-2.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-10	-10000	-9	-11	3.34	61%	0.14	48.4	0.87%	0	-0.4	48	0
17	Jul_22_2014	43.21	46.64	46.97	47.02			47.47(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	8	-10000	6	13	2	68%	0.16	50.4	0.82%	0	1.3	58	0
18	Jul_21_2014	43.14	46.55	46.89	46.91			47.03(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	3	-10000	-0	12	0.82	66%	0.16	47.4	0.82%	0	0.8	63	0
19	Jul_18_2014	43.07	46.49	46.87	46.92			46.84(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	8	-10000	0	32	1.91	66%	0.16	50	0.82%	0	0.5	64	0
20	Jul_17_2014	43	46.44	46.92	46.91			46.29(-2.46%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	9	-10000	-6	55	3.51	66%	0.12	58.7	0.82%	0	-0.2	62	0

21	Jul_16_2014	42.95	46.41	46.98	47.02			47.46(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	29	-10000	7	95	2.07	77%	0.19	69	0.76%	0	1.6	73	0
22	Jul_15_2014	42.87	46.32	46.9	46.9			46.94(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	29	-10000	3	105	1.99	76%	0.16	75	0.75%	0	1	73	0
23	Jul_14_2014	42.8	46.25	46.81	46.85			47.06(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	-10000	1	107	1.97	76%	0.16	82.4	0.75%	0	1.3	68	0
24	Jul_11_2014	42.73	46.17	46.67	46.83			46.78(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	21	-10000	-6	101	1.02	68%	0.14	91	0.75%	0	1	63	0
25	Jul_10_2014	42.67	46.07	46.55	46.93			46.88(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	28	-10000	1	107	2.22	56%		91.2	0.78%	0	1.2	64	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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