Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 20, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Wed. May. 22, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $42.1159 (1.68%) ($41.1874 - $42.1159) on Thu. Mar. 20, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.77% (three month average)
RSI   67
Latest Price   $42.1159(1.68%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    XLY(64%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.385% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-13%)    UUP(-10%)    IGOV(-6%)    VT(-5%)    SHY(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.385% (StdDev 0.77%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

5 Day Moving Average   $41.3(1.98%)
10 Day Moving Average   $41.25(2.1%)
20 Day Moving Average   $40.91(2.95%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   8.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.25% (three month std-dev: 0.77%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140420

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_20_2014	40.56	40.91	41.25	41.3			42.12(1.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	26	-10000	15	58	1.26	79%	0.15	59.2	0.77%	0	2.4	67	0
2	Mar_19_2014	40.5	40.82	41.15	41.3			41.42(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	11	-10000	0	43	0.98	76%	0.1	61.8	0.73%	0	1.3	62	0
3	Mar_18_2014	40.46	40.76	41.1	41.06			41.47(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	18	-10000	6	52	0.71	76%	0.1	74.1	0.75%	0	1.6	63	0
4	Mar_17_2014	40.42	40.69	41.03	40.96			40.98(1.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	10	-10000	-4	50	0.87	74%	0.05	87.4	0.74%	0	0.7	63	0
5	Mar_14_2014	40.4	40.65	40.96	41.02			40.54(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	6	-10000	-10	55	0.97	72%	0.02	0	0.73%	0	-0.3	54	0

6	Mar_13_2014	40.39	40.62	40.97	41.17			40.87(-1.37%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	18	-10000	-5	85	2.36	77%	0.05	0	0.71%	0	0.5	63	0
7	Mar_12_2014	40.37	40.55	40.94	41.25			41.44(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	36	-10000	9	118	0.68	87%	0.12	0	0.63%	0	1.7	67	0
8	Mar_11_2014	40.32	40.43	40.84	41.13			40.98(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	30	-10000	2	112	1.88	86%	0.07	0	0.62%	0	1	66	0
9	Mar_10_2014	40.29	40.33	40.76	41.1			41.28(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	43	-10000	17	121	1.91	93%	0.15	0	0.59%	0	1.4	69	0
10	Mar_7_2014	40.23	40.33	40.67	40.89			41.28(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.6	10	-10000	12	5	1.09	93%	0.12	0	0.6%	0	65.5	70	0

11	Mar_6_2014	40.18	40.33	40.56	40.74			41.28(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	10	-10000	12	5	1.14	93%	0.17	0	0.62%	0	68.8	74	0
12	Mar_5_2014	40.11	40.33	40.46	40.59			40.84(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	5	-10000	6	2	1.82	92%	0.1	0	0.61%	0	74.3	75	0
13	Mar_4_2014	40.07	40.33	40.38	40.52			40.8(1.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	9	-10000	10	4	1.61	92%	0.12	0	0.63%	0	77	77	0
14	Mar_3_2014	40.02	40.33	40.31	40.39			40.27(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-2	-10000	-2	-1	1.6	90%	0.05	0	0.59%	0	77.4	78	0
15	Feb_28_2014	40	40.33	40.3	40.41			40.53(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	6	-10000	7	3	2.22	100%	0.1	0	0.55%	0	76.5	50	0

16	Feb_27_2014	39.96	40.33	40.23	40.33			40.5(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	2	-10000	2	1	1.25	100%	0.13	0	0.57%	0	76.4	50	0
17	Feb_26_2014	39.91	40.33	40.12	40.3			40.48(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	5	-10000	6	2	0.7	100%	0.13	0	0.59%	0	77.8	50	0
18	Feb_25_2014	39.86	40.33	40	40.3			40.16(-0.55%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	0	-10000	0	0	2.05	100%	0.08	0	0.6%	0	77.2	50	0
19	Feb_24_2014	39.83	40.33	39.86	40.23			40.38(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	4	-10000	4	2	0.97	100%	0.15	0	0.54%	0	76.2	50	0
20	Feb_21_2014	39.77	40.33	39.86	40.18			40.14(-0.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	5	-10000	6	2	1.26	100%	0.1	0	0.57%	0	75.7	50	0

21	Feb_20_2014	39.73	40.33	39.86	40.11			40.36(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	19	-10000	22	9	1.56	100%	0.25	0	0.46%	0	74.7	50	0
22	Feb_19_2014	39.63	40.33	39.86	39.91			40.09(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-10000	18	7	1.39	100%	0.18	0	0.49%	0	77.1	50	0
23	Feb_18_2014	39.56	40.33	39.86	39.73			40.18(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	36	-10000	42	17	1.01	100%	0.33	0	0.36%	0	75.8	50	0
24	Feb_14_2014	39.43	40.33	39.86	39.43			40.1(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	1670	-10000	1964	786	1.21	100%	0.41	0	0.26%	0	81.8	50	0
25	Feb_13_2014	39.27	40.33	39.86	31.41			39.8(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	21	1990	-10000	2341	936	1.61	100%		0	0.29%	0	99.5	50	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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