Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jan. 22, 2018

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $53.3900 (8.6%) ($51.0400 - $56.0300) on Mon. Jan. 22, 2018.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.08% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $53.3900(8.6%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 2.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE declines -0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(64%)    XBI(60%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(56%)    ARKK(51%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.54% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-10%)    TLT(-8%)    SHY(-7%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.54% (StdDev 3.08%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $48.68(9.68%)
10 Day Moving Average   $48.61(9.83%)
20 Day Moving Average   $48.64(9.77%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   22.6%
Market Cap   $3.225b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 3.68% (three month std-dev: 3.08%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 3.48%(67%) Average negative next day return: -2.78%(33%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 3.04%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.66%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 22.9%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.09%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_22_2018	49.69	48.64	48.61	48.68	49.02	50.64	53.39(8.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.6	58	250	73	14	1.03	52%	-0.06	43.5	3.08%	0	2.7	68	0.9
2	Jan_19_2018	49.72	48.35	48.27	47.56	47.51	47.98	49.16(4.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	4	70	13	-24	0.61	47%	-0.16	43.2	2.88%	0	0.6	58	1
3	Jan_18_2018	49.8	48.22	48.42	47.36	47.52	47.41	47.25(-1.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-6	-10	-0	-22	0.42	44%	-0.2	46.8	2.84%	0	-0.7	51	0
4	Jan_17_2018	49.9	48.07	48.72	47.72	47.63	47.05	47.77(4.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-17	-90	-18	-13	0.57	44%	-0.14	50.2	2.85%	0	-0.2	50	0
5	Jan_16_2018	49.97	47.93	48.88	47.98	48.03	47.62	45.81(-4.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-17	-60	-22	-3	0.36	41%	-0.18	51.4	2.8%	0	-1.5	45	0

6	Jan_12_2018	50.06	47.88	49	48.47	48.44	48.2	47.8(-0.77%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-12	-40	-17	5	0.34	43%	-0.06	42.1	2.74%	0	-0	51	0
7	Jan_11_2018	50.09	47.76	48.95	49.07	48.74	48.45	48.17(-1.81%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-12	-60	-21	15	0.38	43%	-0.06	38.6	2.74%	0	0.2	53	0
8	Jan_10_2018	50.12	47.59	48.92	49.64	49.47	48.69	49.06(-0.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-5	-120	-18	36	0.35	43%	-0.2	33.6	2.74%	0	0.7	62	0
9	Jan_9_2018	50.22	47.4	48.85	49.89	50.16	49.04	49.07(1.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-5	-140	-27	60	0.26	43%	-0.16	22.1	2.74%	0	0.8	72	0
10	Jan_8_2018	50.3	47.22	48.75	49.93	50.51	50.26	48.24(-5.06%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	14	0	-10	85	0.47	43%	-0.18	10.1	2.73%	0	0.5	64	0

11	Jan_5_2018	50.39	47.12	48.73	49.56	50.18	51.28	50.81(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	54	190	34	113	0.39	47%	-0.14	-3.4	2.68%	0	1.7	76	0
12	Jan_4_2018	50.46	46.99	48.43	48.79	49.08	50.77	51(1.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	69	260	53	115	0.55	47%	-0.22	-12	2.68%	0	2	69	0
13	Jan_3_2018	50.57	46.89	47.97	48.11	48.08	49.08	50.31(2.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	59	140	44	105	0.48	47%	-0.22	-15.6	2.68%	0	1.9	70	0
14	Jan_2_2018	50.68	46.92	47.31	47.71	47.54	47.4	49.29(6.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	27	-30	10	76	0.47	52%	-0.41	-11.7	2.66%	0	1.3	64	0
15	Dec_29_2017	50.89	47	46.85	47.46	47.56	47.08	46.38(-1.26%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	0	-60	-18	54	0.29	48%	-0.27	-7	2.72%	0	-0.3	55	0

16	Dec_28_2017	51.03	47.19	46.65	47.77	47.77	47.68	46.97(-1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	6	-10	-11	58	0.23	48%	-0.31	-0.2	2.72%	0	-0.1	54	0
17	Dec_27_2017	51.19	47.23	46.48	47.97	47.91	48.03	47.59(-1.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	19	10	7	56	0.2	48%	-0.33	1.4	2.73%	0	0.2	44	0
18	Dec_26_2017	51.36	47.18	46.18	47.77	47.82	47.87	48.31(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	10	24	34	0.25	48%	-0.54	-3.3	2.73%	0	0.5	42	0
19	Dec_22_2017	51.64	47.13	45.85	46.82	47.13	47.8	48.03(0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	10	120	20	-20	0.35	48%	-0.27	-15.8	2.72%	0	0.4	36	0
20	Dec_21_2017	51.78	47.16	45.58	46.15	46.32	47.77	47.95(-0.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	21	230	46	-54	0.41	48%	-0.29	-21.9	2.72%	0	0.3	36	0

21	Dec_20_2017	51.93	47.16	45.36	45.36	45.48	46.46	47.96(2.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	11	160	46	-93	0.49	48%	-0.31	-28	2.72%	0	0.3	41	0
22	Dec_19_2017	52.09	47.2	45.38	44.81	44.78	44.86	46.61(7.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-18	10	15	-118	0.81	45%	-0.38	-29.7	2.7%	0	-0.2	48	0
23	Dec_18_2017	52.29	47.26	45.66	44.39	44.61	44.51	43.54(-2.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-42	-0	-11	-134	0.42	36%	-0.44	-36.2	2.56%	0	-1.5	44	0
24	Dec_15_2017	52.52	47.51	46.45	44.73	44.71	44.7	44.68(1.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-32	-0	-7	-106	0.76	39%	-0.45	-33.7	2.58%	0	-1.2	43	0
25	Dec_14_2017	52.76	47.7	47.12	44.91	45	44.71	44.02(-2.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-32	-40	-12	-91	0.31	45%		-29.5	2.62%	0	-1.7	37	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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