Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 4, 2018

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $51.0000 (1.37%) ($50.5300 - $53.3900) on Thu. Jan. 4, 2018.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.68% (three month average)
RSI   69
Latest Price   $51.0000(1.37%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 1.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 4.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(64%)    XBI(60%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(56%)    ARKK(51%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.34% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-10%)    TLT(-8%)    SHY(-7%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.34% (StdDev 2.68%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $48.79(4.53%)
10 Day Moving Average   $48.43(5.31%)
20 Day Moving Average   $46.99(8.53%)
To recent high   -9.9%
To recent low   17.1%
Market Cap   $3.081b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 4.32% (three month std-dev: 2.68%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 1.52%(50%) Average negative next day return: -2.52%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 3.95%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -2.72%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 3.59%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.86%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_4_2018	50.46	46.99	48.43	48.79	49.08	50.77	51(1.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	69	260	53	115	0.55	47%	-0.22	-12	2.68%	0	2	69	INF
2	Jan_3_2018	50.57	46.89	47.97	48.11	48.08	49.08	50.31(2.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	59	140	44	105	0.48	47%	-0.22	-15.6	2.68%	0	1.9	70	INF
3	Jan_2_2018	50.68	46.92	47.31	47.71	47.54	47.4	49.29(6.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	27	-30	10	76	0.47	52%	-0.41	-11.7	2.66%	0	1.3	64	INF
4	Dec_29_2017	50.89	47	46.85	47.46	47.56	47.08	46.38(-1.26%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	0	-60	-18	54	0.29	48%	-0.27	-7	2.72%	0	-0.3	55	INF
5	Dec_28_2017	51.03	47.19	46.65	47.77	47.77	47.68	46.97(-1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	6	-10	-11	58	0.23	48%	-0.31	-0.2	2.72%	0	-0.1	54	INF

6	Dec_27_2017	51.19	47.23	46.48	47.97	47.91	48.03	47.59(-1.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	19	10	7	56	0.2	48%	-0.33	1.4	2.73%	0	0.2	44	INF
7	Dec_26_2017	51.36	47.18	46.18	47.77	47.82	47.87	48.31(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	10	24	34	0.25	48%	-0.54	-3.3	2.73%	0	0.5	42	INF
8	Dec_22_2017	51.64	47.13	45.85	46.82	47.13	47.8	48.03(0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	10	120	20	-20	0.35	48%	-0.27	-15.8	2.72%	0	0.4	36	INF
9	Dec_21_2017	51.78	47.16	45.58	46.15	46.32	47.77	47.95(-0.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	21	230	46	-54	0.41	48%	-0.29	-21.9	2.72%	0	0.3	36	INF
10	Dec_20_2017	51.93	47.16	45.36	45.36	45.48	46.46	47.96(2.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	11	160	46	-93	0.49	48%	-0.31	-28	2.72%	0	0.3	41	INF

11	Dec_19_2017	52.09	47.2	45.38	44.81	44.78	44.86	46.61(7.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-18	10	15	-118	0.81	45%	-0.38	-29.7	2.7%	0	-0.2	48	INF
12	Dec_18_2017	52.29	47.26	45.66	44.39	44.61	44.51	43.54(-2.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-42	-0	-11	-134	0.42	36%	-0.44	-36.2	2.56%	0	-1.5	44	INF
13	Dec_15_2017	52.52	47.51	46.45	44.73	44.71	44.7	44.68(1.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-32	-0	-7	-106	0.76	39%	-0.45	-33.7	2.58%	0	-1.2	43	INF
14	Dec_14_2017	52.76	47.7	47.12	44.91	45	44.71	44.02(-2.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-32	-40	-12	-91	0.31	45%	-0.51	-29.5	2.62%	0	-1.7	37	INF
15	Dec_13_2017	53.03	47.89	47.78	45.34	45.39	44.72	45.19(1.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-41	-100	-29	-78	0.34	45%	-0.49	-22	2.76%	0	-1.4	40	INF

16	Dec_12_2017	53.29	47.93	48.07	46.05	46.06	45.29	44.51(-1.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-50	-120	-43	-69	0.52	45%	-0.5	-12.3	2.75%	0	-1.7	41	INF
17	Dec_11_2017	53.56	48.16	48.33	47.14	47.21	46.05	45.24(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-49	-170	-48	-50	0.41	45%	-0.46	6.9	2.75%	0	-1.6	44	INF
18	Dec_8_2017	53.81	48.29	48.6	48.45	48.52	46.84	45.57(-1.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-54	-240	-63	-27	0.5	45%	-0.48	23.3	2.75%	0	-1.6	44	INF
19	Dec_7_2017	54.07	48.35	48.97	49.67	50.09	48.37	46.17(-5.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.1	-39	-210	-55	11	0.57	42%	-0.41	40.2	2.75%	0	-1.3	45	INF
20	Dec_6_2017	54.29	48.33	49.28	50.54	50.92	50.21	48.78(-2.36%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-6	-80	-25	52	0.53	46%	-0.33	46.1	2.74%	0	0.3	58	INF

21	Dec_5_2017	54.47	48.18	49.23	50.33	50.86	51.81	49.96(-3.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	37	160	23	78	1.22	46%	-0.31	39.2	2.76%	0	1	69	INF
22	Dec_4_2017	54.64	48.03	49.02	49.65	49.91	51.64	51.76(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	63	260	60	73	0.98	48%	-0.22	34.7	2.75%	0	2.1	59	INF
23	Dec_1_2017	54.76	47.89	48.63	48.79	48.5	49.9	51.7(2.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	47	180	46	49	0.65	48%	-0.26	32.2	2.77%	0	2.4	62	INF
24	Nov_30_2017	54.9	47.7	48.25	48.23	47.9	48.19	50.49(5.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	28	20	25	36	0.54	50%	-0.24	35.1	2.74%	0	2.1	63	INF
25	Nov_29_2017	55.03	47.55	47.91	47.92	47.88	47.1	47.76(2.64%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-6	-120	-15	22	0.5	46%		34.1	2.68%	0	0.2	61	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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