Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ RARE: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Aug. 30, 2017

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $56.2400 (3.48%) ($54.6900 - $56.8400) on Wed. Aug. 30, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.3% (three month average)
RSI   42
Latest Price   $56.2400(3.48%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE declines -6.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(63%)    XBI(59%)    ARKG(56%)    IWO(55%)    ARKK(50%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.65% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-9%)    TLT(-9%)    SHY(-8%)    GDXJ(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.65% (StdDev 3.3%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.4%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $41.13(-26.87%)
Resistance Level   $58.13
5 Day Moving Average   $53.28(5.56%)
10 Day Moving Average   $54.69(2.83%)
20 Day Moving Average   $58.13(-3.25%)
To recent high   -21.4%
To recent low   10.2%
Market Cap   $3.398b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 7.28% (three month std-dev: 3.3%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 4.06%(25%) Average negative next day return: -3.81%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 5.54%(75%) Average negative next three day return: -3.53%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 5.63%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.65%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170930

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_30_2017	61.19	58.13	54.69	53.28	53.25	54.58	56.24(3.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	12	170	47	-93	0.34	46%	-0.03	-68.3	3.3%	0	-0.4	42	INF
2	Aug_29_2017	61.21	58.43	55.11	52.24	52.19	52.93	54.35(2.55%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-25	100	10	-128	0.35	44%	-0.05	-81.3	3.34%	0	-0.9	33	INF
3	Aug_28_2017	61.24	58.88	55.73	53.14	51.62	51.92	53(3.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-44	-50	-14	-132	0.33	44%	-0.1	-81	3.35%	0	-1.3	27	INF
4	Aug_25_2017	61.3	59.55	56.5	53.92	53.03	51.44	51.4(-0.06%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-48	-260	-20	-131	0.39	42%	-0.11	-81.7	3.37%	0	-1.8	22	INF
5	Aug_24_2017	61.37	60.34	57.34	54.94	54.29	51.31	51.43(0.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-94	-420	-76	-148	0.45	44%	-0.18	-82.9	3.38%	0	-2.1	25	INF

6	Aug_23_2017	61.48	61.17	58.26	56.25	55.72	54.63	51.02(-13.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-91	-170	-77	-134	1.6	44%	-0.23	-80.5	3.42%	0	-2.4	26	INF
7	Aug_22_2017	61.62	62.17	59.48	58.31	57.79	57.27	58.85(3.41%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-26	-90	-6	-84	0.39	50%	-0.1	-71.9	2.99%	0	-0.8	38	INF
8	Aug_21_2017	61.68	62.74	59.97	58.74	58.62	56.81	56.91(0.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-57	-220	-45	-92	0.14	49%	-0.18	-60.9	2.96%	0	-1.4	28	INF
9	Aug_18_2017	61.79	63.47	60.69	59.51	59.72	58.32	56.51(-2.48%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-59	-150	-50	-87	0.26	49%	-0.18	-52.2	2.98%	0	-1.6	21	INF
10	Aug_17_2017	61.9	64.15	61.39	60.1	60.5	60.42	57.95(-5.53%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-32	10	-18	-75	0.22	49%	-0.15	-44.5	2.97%	0	-1.5	22	INF

11	Aug_16_2017	61.99	64.81	61.89	60.53	60.6	61.13	61.34(0.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-14	60	7	-75	0.15	52%	-0.1	-38	2.89%	0	-0.9	25	INF
12	Aug_15_2017	62.05	65.15	62.01	60.82	60.55	60.58	60.98(0.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-29	-10	-5	-99	0.14	52%	-0.14	-32.1	2.89%	0	-1.1	19	INF
13	Aug_14_2017	62.14	65.46	62.25	61.45	61.17	60.07	60.79(2.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-49	-140	-26	-119	0.18	52%	-0.16	-25.4	2.9%	0	-1.3	18	INF
14	Aug_11_2017	62.24	65.76	62.78	62.11	62.19	60.53	59.44(-1.13%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-69	-180	-48	-133	0.23	52%	-0.21	-15.6	2.89%	0	-1.8	10	INF
15	Aug_10_2017	62.37	66.05	63.54	62.88	63.09	62.27	60.12(-4.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-59	-80	-37	-124	0.24	50%	-0.3	-10	2.91%	0	-1.8	20	INF

16	Aug_9_2017	62.56	66.33	64.3	63.38	63.55	63.85	62.78(-2.12%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-27	40	1	-111	0.13	52%	-0.24	-3.9	2.89%	0	-1.2	22	INF
17	Aug_8_2017	62.71	66.4	65.06	63.34	63.37	63.92	64.14(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-12	60	17	-100	0.2	52%	-0.33	-9.4	2.88%	0	-0.8	39	INF
18	Aug_7_2017	62.92	66.41	65.69	63.18	62.99	63.25	64.07(1.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-28	20	-3	-101	0.13	52%	-0.33	-10.4	2.89%	0	-0.7	44	INF
19	Aug_4_2017	63.13	66.32	66.41	63.63	63.46	62.83	63.3(1.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-34	-80	-16	-86	0.17	52%	-0.36	-7.4	2.89%	0	-1	44	INF
20	Aug_3_2017	63.36	66.38	67.09	64.37	64.38	62.73	62.59(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.6	-51	-180	-44	-71	0.22	52%	-0.41	2.1	2.9%	0	-1.2	49	INF

21	Aug_2_2017	63.62	66.45	67.95	65.4	65.29	64.09	62.59(-1.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-63	-130	-68	-47	0.2	50%	-0.34	12.1	2.91%	0	-1.3	48	INF
22	Aug_1_2017	63.84	66.68	68.56	67.04	66.96	66.04	63.34(-4.49%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.2	-26	-100	-36	6	0.3	50%	-0.34	37.6	2.94%	0	-1.1	55	INF
23	Jul_31_2017	64.06	66.74	69	68.54	68.32	66.49	66.32(-1%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.8	-25	-200	-45	37	0.19	53%	-0.31	50.9	2.91%	0	-0.1	61	INF
24	Jul_28_2017	64.26	66.55	69.05	69.6	69.34	67.88	66.99(-1.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-25	-160	-56	67	0.32	53%	-0.29	52.2	2.91%	0	0.1	69	INF
25	Jul_27_2017	64.45	66.32	68.86	70.21	70.45	70.14	67.74(-4.36%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	8	-20	-21	96	0.3	53%		50.4	2.91%	0	0.4	61	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.