Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ RARE: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. Jul. 21, 2017

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $70.0600 (-1.31%) ($69.3100 - $71.9900) on Fri. Jul. 21, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.95% (three month average)
RSI   67
Latest Price   $70.0600(-1.31%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 3.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(63%)    XBI(59%)    ARKG(56%)    IWO(55%)    ARKK(50%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.475% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-9%)    TLT(-9%)    SHY(-8%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.475% (StdDev 2.95%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $68.45(2.35%)
10 Day Moving Average   $66.18(5.86%)
20 Day Moving Average   $64.97(7.83%)
To recent high   -1.3%
To recent low   32.2%
Market Cap   $4.233b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 4.12% (three month std-dev: 2.95%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 28 Average positive next day return: 1.85%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.86%(50%) Sample size 28 Average positive next three day return: 3.5%(57%) Average negative next three day return: -2.64%(43%) Sample size 28 Average positive next weekly return: 3.08%(57%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.8%(43%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170821

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_21_2017	65.12	64.97	66.18	68.45	68.7	70.15	70.06(-1.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	58	160	45	95	0.24	58%	-0.25	43.2	2.95%	0	1.9	67	0
2	Jul_20_2017	65.28	64.71	65.54	67.31	67.63	68.83	70.99(4.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	59	140	51	84	0.32	58%	-0.27	42.2	2.96%	0	2.6	69	0
3	Jul_19_2017	65.46	64.44	64.72	66.07	66.43	67.26	68.06(1.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	40	100	34	58	0.28	56%	-0.27	45	2.92%	0	1.8	61	0
4	Jul_18_2017	65.64	64.19	64.53	65.15	65.38	66.44	66.83(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	35	120	27	57	0.18	56%	-0.27	47.1	2.92%	0	1.5	65	0
5	Jul_17_2017	65.82	64.03	64.2	64.53	64.73	65.61	66.29(3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	44	100	42	49	0.4	56%	-0.18	64.7	2.93%	0	1.3	51	0

6	Jul_14_2017	65.94	63.83	63.78	63.57	63.79	64.31	64.36(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	13	70	14	8	0.18	55%	-0.2	65.5	2.92%	0	0.3	46	0
7	Jul_13_2017	66.07	63.71	63.54	63.48	63.26	63.84	64.83(2.22%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.8	9	50	13	-5	0.25	57%	-0.2	76	2.94%	0	0.7	48	0
8	Jul_12_2017	66.2	63.56	63.36	63.17	63.25	63.28	63.42(-0.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-6	10	1	-25	0.24	57%	-0.21	86.8	2.98%	0	-0.1	44	0
9	Jul_11_2017	66.34	63.35	63.1	63.83	63.45	62.68	63.76(3.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-18	-100	-15	-28	0.19	57%	-0.05	87.5	2.98%	0	0.2	52	0
10	Jul_10_2017	66.37	62.94	63.23	63.84	64.01	63.22	61.48(-3.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-21	-80	-19	-26	0.24	55%	-0.24	62.9	2.95%	0	-0.5	47	0

11	Jul_7_2017	66.53	62.77	63.71	63.97	64.08	64.22	63.92(1.01%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-2	20	-1	-6	0.15	58%	-0.2	60.5	2.92%	0	0.4	55	0
12	Jul_6_2017	66.66	62.44	63.86	63.56	63.6	64.81	63.28(-5.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	18	140	22	7	0.27	54%	-0.21	53.6	2.92%	0	0.3	55	0
13	Jul_5_2017	66.8	62.1	64.16	63.52	62.98	63.95	66.72(4.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	44	80	48	30	0.42	54%	-0.27	52	2.91%	0	1.3	62	0
14	Jul_3_2017	66.98	61.62	63.8	62.3	62.26	62.4	63.81(2.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	3	10	3	4	0.16	49%	-0.15	47.5	2.91%	0	0.6	65	0
15	Jun_30_2017	67.08	61.26	63.81	62.6	62.28	62.02	62.11(0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-10	-40	-22	27	0.31	49%	-0.18	49.8	2.92%	0	0.2	70	0

16	Jun_29_2017	67.2	61.01	63.88	63.46	63.31	62.12	61.88(-1.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-3	-140	-24	59	0.3	49%	-0.13	53.8	2.92%	0	0.2	62	0
17	Jun_28_2017	67.29	60.76	63.92	64.21	64.18	62.53	63.09(4.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-18	-180	-50	80	0.34	47%	-0.15	52.7	2.92%	0	0.6	65	0
18	Jun_27_2017	67.39	60.32	63.82	64.88	65.11	64.49	60.61(-7.17%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	5	-60	-34	123	0.45	45%	-0.21	50.7	2.9%	0	0.1	64	0
19	Jun_26_2017	67.53	59.98	63.71	65.43	65.61	65.83	65.29(-1.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	49	30	9	168	0.25	49%	-0.13	49.2	2.76%	0	1.2	69	0
20	Jun_23_2017	67.62	59.49	62.72	65.15	65.22	65.72	66.42(1.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	58	60	21	167	0.54	44%	-0.12	47.3	2.77%	0	1.7	74	0

21	Jun_22_2017	67.7	59.06	61.82	64.36	64.69	65.39	65.66(-1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	60	90	29	152	0.56	44%	-0.13	45.3	2.94%	0	1.7	71	0
22	Jun_21_2017	67.79	58.73	60.94	63.6	63.7	64.73	66.4(4.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	59	120	31	143	0.46	40%	-0.13	45.9	2.94%	0	2.2	73	0
23	Jun_20_2017	67.88	58.25	59.86	62.66	62.88	63.99	63.38(-0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	65	130	41	135	0.42	37%	-0.07	41.9	3.05%	0	1.7	74	0
24	Jun_19_2017	67.93	57.92	59.23	61.72	61.86	62.68	63.87(2.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	74	100	52	138	0.36	37%	-0.07	33.8	3.05%	0	2.1	77	0
25	Jun_16_2017	67.98	57.57	58.43	59.9	60.15	61.78	62.48(1.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	54	200	38	100	0.93	37%		17.1	3.04%	0	2	64	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.