Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jun. 8, 2016

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $71.2800 (1.58%) ($69.1200 - $71.5800) on Wed. Jun. 8, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.22% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $71.2800(1.58%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(65%)    XBI(62%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(54%)    IWC(49%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2.11% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-10%)    SHY(-9%)    UUP(-8%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.11% (StdDev 4.22%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $71.52(-0.34%)
10 Day Moving Average   $70.85(0.61%)
20 Day Moving Average   $66.59(7.04%)
To recent high   -6.2%
To recent low   33.4%
Market Cap   $4.306b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 7.78% (three month std-dev: 4.22%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.79%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.45%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 2.01%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.23%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 1.66%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.48%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160708

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_8_2016	64.26	66.59	70.85	71.52	70.62	70.64	71.28(1.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	18	-40	-0	72	0.64	57%	-0.02	43.2	4.22%	0	0.9	65	INF
2	Jun_7_2016	64.27	66.19	70.56	71.38	71.04	70.5	70.17(-3.81%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	17	-70	-7	87	0.69	57%	0.11	41.9	4.28%	0	0.8	70	INF
3	Jun_6_2016	64.2	65.88	70.12	71.97	71.32	70.61	72.95(4.92%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	21	-100	-8	108	0.64	57%	-0.11	41.7	4.29%	0	1.4	72	INF
4	Jun_3_2016	64.27	65.36	69.25	71.97	71.67	71.57	69.53(-5.65%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	27	10	-2	114	0.72	53%	-0.2	34.6	4.26%	0	0.9	70	INF
5	Jun_2_2016	64.4	65	68.52	71.09	71.13	72.04	73.69(4.42%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	45	90	16	131	0.93	55%	-0.06	29.8	4.28%	0	1.9	79	INF

6	Jun_1_2016	64.44	64.43	67.45	70.07	70.29	71.77	70.57(-3.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	53	160	26	135	0.69	56%	-0.25	19.3	4.28%	0	1.5	74	INF
7	May_31_2016	64.6	64.13	66.32	69.61	69.61	70.21	73.1(6.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	58	60	35	127	1.34	54%	-0.46	11.1	4.29%	0	2.3	65	INF
8	May_27_2016	64.9	63.87	64.94	68.03	68.41	68.82	68.57(-1.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	31	60	11	90	0.54	53%	-0.38	-4.8	4.25%	0	1.3	58	INF
9	May_26_2016	65.15	63.77	64.02	67.12	67.51	69.01	69.53(1.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	47	170	35	81	0.48	53%	-0.38	-22.5	4.28%	0	1.6	62	INF
10	May_25_2016	65.4	63.64	62.9	65.51	65.89	68.01	68.59(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	47	240	43	57	0.64	53%	-0.47	-43.9	4.29%	0	1.4	62	INF

11	May_24_2016	65.71	63.63	61.95	64.42	64.21	66.02	68.28(4.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	48	190	51	39	0.7	53%	-0.51	-51.3	4.31%	0	1.3	59	INF
12	May_23_2016	66.05	63.7	61.38	62.54	62.67	63.76	65.19(1.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	27	130	34	5	0.42	51%	-0.02	-57.8	4.29%	0	0.4	48	INF
13	May_20_2016	66.06	64.04	61.22	61.4	61.23	62.41	64.01(4.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	10	130	22	-25	0.55	51%	-0.74	-56.5	4.29%	0	-0	38	INF
14	May_19_2016	66.55	64.58	61.08	60.45	60.59	61.57	61.46(-2.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	10	120	28	-43	0.56	51%	-0.8	-52.4	4.29%	0	-0.6	37	INF
15	May_18_2016	67.09	65.24	61.16	59.87	59.73	60.06	63.18(7.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-5	30	15	-66	0.42	51%	-0.8	-51.9	4.31%	0	-0.4	39	INF

16	May_17_2016	67.63	65.6	61.11	59.12	59.23	59.6	58.88(-1.03%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0	-32	50	-9	-100	0.63	51%	-0.82	-56.4	4.22%	0	-1.3	24	INF
17	May_16_2016	68.19	66.16	61.77	60.06	59.84	59.4	59.49(0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-29	-60	-6	-97	0.57	53%	-0.13	-52.3	4.29%	0	-1.2	23	INF
18	May_13_2016	68.28	66.88	62.72	61.03	60.56	58.86	59.26(1.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-49	-220	-31	-102	0.33	53%	-0.83	-44.7	4.35%	0	-1.5	20	INF
19	May_12_2016	68.85	67.48	63.55	61.81	61.84	60.28	58.56(-1.46%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-54	-180	-35	-110	0.57	53%	-0.84	-43.4	4.38%	0	-1.8	15	INF
20	May_11_2016	69.43	68.14	64.52	62.59	62.75	62.27	59.43(-6.48%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-42	-50	-19	-109	0.67	53%	-0.8	-42.6	4.38%	0	-2	18	INF

21	May_10_2016	69.99	68.77	65.55	63.32	62.92	63.39	63.55(-1.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-28	30	-4	-99	0.67	57%	-0.74	-45.8	4.3%	0	-1.3	38	INF
22	May_9_2016	70.51	69.09	66.25	63.72	63.3	63.23	64.36(1.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-27	-30	-4	-94	0.52	57%	-0.66	-43.5	4.31%	0	-1.2	41	INF
23	May_6_2016	70.98	69.26	67.09	64.74	64.15	62.44	63.16(1.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-44	-210	-27	-94	0.48	54%	-0.69	-39.1	4.34%	0	-1.7	33	INF
24	May_5_2016	71.47	69.66	68.34	65.64	65.54	63.37	62.45(-1.01%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-55	-240	-45	-83	0.41	54%	-0.71	-30.3	4.38%	0	-2.1	38	INF
25	May_4_2016	71.98	70.09	69.65	66.75	66.8	65.86	63.09(-3.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-44	-100	-38	-62	0.59	50%		-13.9	4.38%	0	-2.3	39	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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