Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Apr. 12, 2016

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $69.2500 (3.39%) ($65.0800 - $69.5900) on Tue. Apr. 12, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.44% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $69.2500(3.39%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 8.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(65%)    XBI(63%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(54%)    IWC(49%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2.72% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-11%)    SHY(-9%)    UUP(-7%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.72% (StdDev 5.44%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $70.11(-1.23%)
10 Day Moving Average   $67.47(2.64%)
20 Day Moving Average   $62.62(10.59%)
To recent high   -20%
To recent low   36.5%
Market Cap   $4.184b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 9.76% (three month std-dev: 5.44%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 1.01%(33%) Average negative next day return: -5.57%(67%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 18.24%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -7.35%(33%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 20.74%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.82%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160512

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_12_2016	76.64	62.62	67.47	70.11	69.89	68.33	69.25(3.39%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	12	-170	-15	91	0.46	48%	-0.4	51.8	5.44%	0	1.1	60	0
2	Apr_11_2016	76.95	62.07	66.51	69.78	70.7	69.61	66.98(-5.19%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	11	-70	-16	92	0.46	46%	-0.38	46.3	5.52%	0	0.8	64	0
3	Apr_8_2016	77.24	61.7	65.58	69.91	70.44	71.45	70.65(0.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	30	120	5	105	0.6	44%	-0.36	46	5.56%	0	1.5	71	0
4	Apr_7_2016	77.52	60.9	64.41	69.07	69.83	71.8	70.14(-4.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	60	230	39	122	0.62	44%	-0.46	36.9	5.62%	0	1.7	72	0
5	Apr_6_2016	77.88	60.28	63.26	67.7	67.84	69.44	73.51(8.71%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	66	170	46	124	0.67	43%	-0.35	24.1	5.6%	0	2.6	78	0

6	Apr_5_2016	78.15	59.61	62.03	64.46	65.27	67.87	67.62(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.8	54	320	37	103	0.55	41%	-0.4	4.7	5.51%	0	1.9	71	0
7	Apr_4_2016	78.46	59.44	61.01	62.76	63.07	66.25	67.62(1.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	68	370	59	94	0.76	39%	-0.37	-1.6	5.52%	0	2.1	61	0
8	Apr_1_2016	78.75	59.13	59.84	60.6	60.47	62.67	66.46(4.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	46	250	42	59	0.52	39%	-0.38	-17.8	5.62%	0	2	58	0
9	Mar_31_2016	79.05	58.91	58.59	59.11	58.91	59.89	63.31(10.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	25	110	22	35	0.62	39%	-0.44	-28.3	5.61%	0	1.3	62	0
10	Mar_30_2016	79.4	59.06	57.6	58.21	58.47	58.27	57.3(-3.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-2	-10	-5	7	0.8	36%	-0.53	-26.1	5.42%	0	-0.5	49	0

11	Mar_29_2016	79.82	59.41	57.37	59.24	58.88	57.92	59.13(4.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-6	-130	-9	4	0.57	36%	-0.57	-14	5.42%	0	-0.1	46	0
12	Mar_28_2016	80.28	59.5	57.29	58.95	59.58	58.67	56.81(-3.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-9	-70	-8	-11	0.48	36%	-0.89	-19.1	5.4%	0	-0.7	39	0
13	Mar_24_2016	81	59.78	57.59	58.85	59.19	59.84	59.02(0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	2	90	6	-11	0.56	36%	-0.64	-21.8	5.39%	0	-0.2	46	0
14	Mar_23_2016	81.52	59.87	57.19	57.9	58.19	60.49	58.8(-5.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	21	290	36	-24	1.02	36%	-0.65	-28	5.39%	0	-0.3	45	0
15	Mar_22_2016	82.05	60.06	57.14	56.83	56.29	58.55	62.42(8.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.5	21	250	44	-47	0.94	37%	-0.59	-34.5	5.36%	0	0.6	43	0

16	Mar_21_2016	82.54	59.97	56.97	55.29	54.7	55.89	57.69(2.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-8	120	17	-81	0.93	34%	-0.52	-41.6	5.23%	0	-0.6	42	0
17	Mar_18_2016	82.97	60.26	57.69	55.49	54.5	54.04	56.32(3.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-26	-110	-7	-82	1.24	34%	-0.55	-30.8	5.24%	0	-1	46	0
18	Mar_17_2016	83.43	60.62	58.3	56.23	55.69	53.52	54.28(1.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-37	-300	-22	-81	0.68	34%	-0.64	-15.6	5.2%	0	-1.7	42	0
19	Mar_16_2016	83.97	60.97	59.22	56.36	56.87	54.96	53.43(-2.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-50	-210	-39	-83	0.56	36%	-0.59	-6.6	5.19%	0	-2.2	43	0
20	Mar_15_2016	84.47	61.42	60.64	57.4	57.67	57.85	54.73(-6.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-33	40	-24	-59	0.53	36%	-0.52	16.1	5.26%	0	-2.1	42	0

21	Mar_14_2016	84.91	61.63	61.67	58.83	58.77	58.77	58.7(-2.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-10	-0	-3	-31	0.65	37%	-0.47	44.2	5.23%	0	-1	49	0
22	Mar_11_2016	85.31	61.49	61.95	60.26	59.92	57.49	60(9.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-26	-300	-24	-30	0.84	37%	-0.37	55	5.26%	0	-0.5	47	0
23	Mar_10_2016	85.63	61.21	62.2	60.8	61.38	58.78	54.95(-6.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-51	-270	-55	-39	0.97	34%	-0.38	52.1	5.11%	0	-1.7	40	0
24	Mar_9_2016	85.96	61.2	62.9	62.49	62.99	62.35	58.61(-5.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-30	-50	-35	-13	0.93	35%	-0.34	57.4	5.06%	0	-0.7	50	0
25	Mar_8_2016	86.25	60.92	63.36	64.32	64.27	63.99	61.9(-5.96%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	3	-30	-3	22	0.81	39%		53.9	5.03%	0	0.2	52	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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