Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jan. 26, 2016

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $73.6700 (-4.19%) ($70.0000 - $78.4100) on Tue. Jan. 26, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.58% (three month average)
RSI   33
Latest Price   $73.6700(-4.19%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE declines -8.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(66%)    XBI(63%)    ARKG(56%)    IWO(53%)    IWM(48%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2.29% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-11%)    SHY(-10%)    UUP(-6%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.29% (StdDev 4.58%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -4.8%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $52.25(-29.08%)
Resistance Level   $88.35
5 Day Moving Average   $75.72(-2.71%)
10 Day Moving Average   $77.37(-4.78%)
20 Day Moving Average   $88.35(-16.62%)
To recent high   -36.6%
To recent low   3%
Market Cap   $4.451b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 15.81% (three month std-dev: 4.58%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 0.64%(25%) Average negative next day return: -1.3%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 5.25%(75%) Average negative next three day return: -4.27%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 7.54%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -8.65%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_26_2016	99.41	88.35	77.37	75.72	76.27	75.82	73.67(-4.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-28	-20	-0	-110	0.59	47%	-0.27	-60	4.58%	0	-1.1	33	INF
2	Jan_25_2016	99.68	90.32	78.04	75.29	75.82	76.33	76.89(1.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-41	70	-6	-145	0.6	47%	-0.41	-57.9	4.56%	0	-0.9	33	INF
3	Jan_22_2016	100.09	92.16	78.92	75.84	75.66	76.71	75.39(0.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-39	90	3	-166	0.48	49%	-0.42	-56.7	4.64%	0	-1.1	27	INF
4	Jan_21_2016	100.51	94.04	80.6	77.22	76.37	75.31	74.71(-4.17%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-41	-130	4	-177	0.57	49%	-0.49	-51.8	4.67%	0	-1.3	26	INF
5	Jan_20_2016	101	95.98	82.47	77.65	76.57	74.61	77.96(9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-96	-220	-54	-221	0.77	49%	-0.35	-48.7	4.64%	0	-1.2	27	INF

6	Jan_19_2016	101.35	97.62	84.47	79.36	78.83	77.43	71.52(-10.18%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-84	-140	-37	-223	0.67	46%	-0.52	-43.8	4.52%	0	-1.7	22	INF
7	Jan_15_2016	101.88	99.66	87.5	81.08	81.11	78.53	79.63(-3.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-84	-220	-35	-231	0.7	50%	-0.29	-42	4.32%	0	-1.4	25	INF
8	Jan_14_2016	102.18	101.31	90.62	82.44	82.17	80.24	82.3(7.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-113	-170	-72	-236	0.67	50%	-0.25	-39.5	4.34%	0	-1.4	26	INF
9	Jan_13_2016	102.44	102.56	93.58	84.59	85.1	83.69	76.82(-11.2%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-83	-100	-40	-212	0.9	43%	-0.22	-37.2	4.25%	0	-2	20	INF
10	Jan_12_2016	102.67	103.98	97.51	88.03	87.52	84.1	86.51(7.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-94	-290	-59	-197	0.96	48%	-0.07	-33.6	4.14%	0	-1.6	23	INF

11	Jan_11_2016	102.74	104.7	100.18	90.52	89.82	86.5	80.15(-7.28%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-133	-280	-110	-201	0.72	43%	-0.22	-31.2	4.02%	0	-2.4	18	INF
12	Jan_8_2016	102.97	105.9	103.67	94.86	94.12	90.94	86.44(-7.08%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-102	-260	-83	-159	0.5	43%	-0.22	-21.6	3.94%	0	-2.3	21	INF
13	Jan_7_2016	103.2	106.84	106.58	100.01	98	93.13	93.03(-1.06%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-118	-410	-113	-131	0.67	47%	-0.23	-3.7	3.96%	0	-1.9	24	INF
14	Jan_6_2016	103.44	107.5	108.69	104.01	103.34	97.31	94.03(-4.95%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-122	-430	-129	-100	0.42	44%	-0.18	14.4	3.96%	0	-2.1	39	INF
15	Jan_5_2016	103.63	107.82	110.75	108.44	108.43	102.87	98.93(-2.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-105	-360	-123	-51	0.35	46%	-0.15	38.3	3.98%	0	-1.5	52	INF

16	Jan_4_2016	103.79	107.98	112	111.31	112.17	109.36	101.86(-9.2%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.6	-60	-150	-81	2	0.54	46%	-0.16	51.9	4%	0	-1	61	INF
17	Dec_31_2015	103.96	107.77	112.99	113.7	113.93	113.98	112.18(-0.75%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	4	10	-16	62	0.32	55%	-0.03	60	3.89%	0	0.7	71	INF
18	Dec_30_2015	103.99	107.11	112.94	114.13	114.09	114.98	113.03(-2.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	34	50	15	92	0.28	60%	0.01	64.1	3.9%	0	0.9	68	INF
19	Dec_29_2015	103.98	106.56	112.25	114.14	113.97	113.87	116.2(2.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	32	-10	13	90	0.29	60%	0.02	68.5	4.11%	0	1.5	69	INF
20	Dec_28_2015	103.96	105.65	110.87	113.53	113.61	113.21	113.26(-0.51%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	16	-20	-8	86	0.2	56%	0.1	72.1	4.11%	0	1.2	74	INF

21	Dec_24_2015	103.86	105	109.45	112.86	113.62	114.07	113.84(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	29	50	10	84	0.14	52%	0.1	74.6	4.28%	0	1.5	69	INF
22	Dec_23_2015	103.76	104.06	108.18	112.16	112.67	114.01	114.31(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	36	100	18	90	0.22	52%	0.11	65.2	4.32%	0	1.7	74	INF
23	Dec_22_2015	103.65	103.05	106.99	111.59	111.81	113.16	113.1(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	52	90	36	101	0.26	52%	0.11	60.6	4.32%	0	1.7	67	INF
24	Dec_21_2015	103.54	102.29	106.06	110.05	110.66	111.33	113.16(2.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	49	60	34	93	0.4	47%	0.1	60.2	4.35%	0	2	61	INF
25	Dec_18_2015	103.44	101.31	104.52	107.8	108.54	110.46	109.87(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	40	140	30	71	1.03	47%		50.2	4.67%	0	1.7	63	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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