Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jan. 4, 2016

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $101.8600 (-9.2%) ($101.5400 - $110.0600) on Mon. Jan. 4, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $101.8600(-9.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE declines -2.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 2.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(66%)    XBI(64%)    ARKG(56%)    IWO(54%)    IWM(48%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-11%)    SHY(-10%)    UUP(-6%)    GDXJ(-6%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2% (StdDev 4%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -6.4%

Resistance Level   $107.98
5 Day Moving Average   $111.31(-8.49%)
10 Day Moving Average   $112(-9.05%)
20 Day Moving Average   $107.98(-5.67%)
To recent high   -12.3%
To recent low   25.6%
Market Cap   $6.154b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 5.45% (three month std-dev: 4%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 5.34%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 3.2%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 3.2%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160204

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_4_2016	103.79	107.98	112	111.31	112.17	109.36	101.86(-9.2%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.6	-60	-150	-81	2	0.54	46%	-0.16	51.9	4%	0	-1	61	INF
2	Dec_31_2015	103.96	107.77	112.99	113.7	113.93	113.98	112.18(-0.75%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	4	10	-16	62	0.32	55%	-0.03	60	3.89%	0	0.7	71	INF
3	Dec_30_2015	103.99	107.11	112.94	114.13	114.09	114.98	113.03(-2.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	34	50	15	92	0.28	60%	0.01	64.1	3.9%	0	0.9	68	INF
4	Dec_29_2015	103.98	106.56	112.25	114.14	113.97	113.87	116.2(2.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	32	-10	13	90	0.29	60%	0.02	68.5	4.11%	0	1.5	69	INF
5	Dec_28_2015	103.96	105.65	110.87	113.53	113.61	113.21	113.26(-0.51%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	16	-20	-8	86	0.2	56%	0.1	72.1	4.11%	0	1.2	74	INF

6	Dec_24_2015	103.86	105	109.45	112.86	113.62	114.07	113.84(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	29	50	10	84	0.14	52%	0.1	74.6	4.28%	0	1.5	69	INF
7	Dec_23_2015	103.76	104.06	108.18	112.16	112.67	114.01	114.31(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	36	100	18	90	0.22	52%	0.11	65.2	4.32%	0	1.7	74	INF
8	Dec_22_2015	103.65	103.05	106.99	111.59	111.81	113.16	113.1(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	52	90	36	101	0.26	52%	0.11	60.6	4.32%	0	1.7	67	INF
9	Dec_21_2015	103.54	102.29	106.06	110.05	110.66	111.33	113.16(2.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	49	60	34	93	0.4	47%	0.1	60.2	4.35%	0	2	61	INF
10	Dec_18_2015	103.44	101.31	104.52	107.8	108.54	110.46	109.87(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	40	140	30	71	1.03	47%	0.07	50.2	4.67%	0	1.7	63	INF

11	Dec_17_2015	103.37	100.67	103.53	105.46	106.08	109.98	110.37(-0.95%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.1	65	270	64	68	0.28	49%	0.08	43.4	4.67%	0	2.1	59	INF
12	Dec_16_2015	103.29	100.26	102.07	103.54	103	106.63	111.43(5.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	66	230	68	58	0.37	49%	0.09	44.2	4.72%	0	2.7	66	INF
13	Dec_15_2015	103.2	99.62	100.69	101.79	100.87	102.18	105.4(3.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	34	60	33	37	0.28	46%	0.02	45.3	4.66%	0	1.8	63	INF
14	Dec_14_2015	103.18	99.16	100.31	101.58	100.56	99.37	101.91(3.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	9	-110	2	28	0.25	46%	-0.01	38.2	4.64%	0	0.9	54	INF
15	Dec_11_2015	103.19	98.85	99.95	100.77	100.49	99.57	98.18(-2.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-15	-70	-26	17	0.34	46%	-0.06	18.5	4.62%	0	-0.2	57	INF

16	Dec_10_2015	103.25	98.7	100.23	101.19	100.59	101.76	100.79(-1.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	21	60	14	40	0.53	46%	-0.03	9.5	4.61%	0	0.7	54	INF
17	Dec_9_2015	103.28	98.47	99.69	100.21	99.74	101.41	102.69(-1.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	33	100	33	31	0.52	46%	-0.01	-16.8	4.61%	0	1.4	49	INF
18	Dec_8_2015	103.29	98.19	98.88	99.37	98.49	99.43	104.34(6.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	16	40	17	12	0.49	49%	0.02	-43.9	4.62%	0	2.1	54	INF
19	Dec_7_2015	103.27	98.03	98.25	98.97	98.47	98.07	97.87(-2.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	2	-40	1	5	0.57	47%	-0.07	-62.5	4.63%	0	-0.1	53	INF
20	Dec_4_2015	103.34	98.3	97.9	99.06	99.08	97.55	100.28(4.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-15	-110	-18	-4	0.69	47%	-0.04	-50.8	4.66%	0	0.7	56	INF

21	Dec_3_2015	103.38	98.4	97.62	99.17	99.53	98.87	95.89(-2.6%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1	-14	-40	-19	1	0.57	47%	-0.09	-44.3	4.62%	0	-0.8	53	INF
22	Dec_2_2015	103.47	98.99	98.36	98.97	99.67	100.62	98.45(-3.81%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	18	90	16	22	0.47	50%	-0.06	-35.8	4.64%	0	-0.1	54	INF
23	Dec_1_2015	103.53	99.5	98.49	98.18	98.4	100.2	102.35(4.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	27	130	28	24	0.33	50%	-0.02	-27.7	4.78%	0	0.6	56	INF
24	Nov_30_2015	103.55	99.8	97.87	97.46	96.94	98.72	98.32(-2.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	110	30	13	0.23	50%	-0.06	-18.4	4.72%	0	-0.3	45	INF
25	Nov_27_2015	103.61	99.86	97.63	96.58	96.39	96.61	100.82(6.2%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	15	10	22	-6	0.14	50%		-21.3	4.75%	0	0.2	46	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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