Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 21, 2015

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $113.1600 (2.99%) ($110.0000 - $116.3700) on Mon. Dec. 21, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.35% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $113.1600(2.99%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 2.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 5.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(66%)    XBI(64%)    ARKG(56%)    IWO(54%)    IWM(48%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2.175% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-19%)    TLT(-11%)    SHY(-10%)    UUP(-6%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.175% (StdDev 4.35%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

5 Day Moving Average   $110.05(2.83%)
10 Day Moving Average   $106.06(6.69%)
20 Day Moving Average   $102.29(10.63%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   39.5%
Market Cap   $6.836b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 5.27% (three month std-dev: 4.35%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 1.86%(45%) Average negative next day return: -1.63%(55%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 3.91%(36%) Average negative next three day return: -1.69%(64%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 2.88%(64%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.83%(36%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_21_2015	103.54	102.29	106.06	110.05	110.66	111.33	113.16(2.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	49	60	34	93	0.4	47%	0.1	60.2	4.35%	0	2	61	0
2	Dec_18_2015	103.44	101.31	104.52	107.8	108.54	110.46	109.87(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	40	140	30	71	1.03	47%	0.07	50.2	4.67%	0	1.7	63	0
3	Dec_17_2015	103.37	100.67	103.53	105.46	106.08	109.98	110.37(-0.95%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.1	65	270	64	68	0.28	49%	0.08	43.4	4.67%	0	2.1	59	0
4	Dec_16_2015	103.29	100.26	102.07	103.54	103	106.63	111.43(5.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	66	230	68	58	0.37	49%	0.09	44.2	4.72%	0	2.7	66	0
5	Dec_15_2015	103.2	99.62	100.69	101.79	100.87	102.18	105.4(3.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	34	60	33	37	0.28	46%	0.02	45.3	4.66%	0	1.8	63	0

6	Dec_14_2015	103.18	99.16	100.31	101.58	100.56	99.37	101.91(3.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	9	-110	2	28	0.25	46%	-0.01	38.2	4.64%	0	0.9	54	0
7	Dec_11_2015	103.19	98.85	99.95	100.77	100.49	99.57	98.18(-2.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-15	-70	-26	17	0.34	46%	-0.06	18.5	4.62%	0	-0.2	57	0
8	Dec_10_2015	103.25	98.7	100.23	101.19	100.59	101.76	100.79(-1.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	21	60	14	40	0.53	46%	-0.03	9.5	4.61%	0	0.7	54	0
9	Dec_9_2015	103.28	98.47	99.69	100.21	99.74	101.41	102.69(-1.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	33	100	33	31	0.52	46%	-0.01	-16.8	4.61%	0	1.4	49	0
10	Dec_8_2015	103.29	98.19	98.88	99.37	98.49	99.43	104.34(6.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	16	40	17	12	0.49	49%	0.02	-43.9	4.62%	0	2.1	54	0

11	Dec_7_2015	103.27	98.03	98.25	98.97	98.47	98.07	97.87(-2.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	2	-40	1	5	0.57	47%	-0.07	-62.5	4.63%	0	-0.1	53	0
12	Dec_4_2015	103.34	98.3	97.9	99.06	99.08	97.55	100.28(4.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-15	-110	-18	-4	0.69	47%	-0.04	-50.8	4.66%	0	0.7	56	0
13	Dec_3_2015	103.38	98.4	97.62	99.17	99.53	98.87	95.89(-2.6%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1	-14	-40	-19	1	0.57	47%	-0.09	-44.3	4.62%	0	-0.8	53	0
14	Dec_2_2015	103.47	98.99	98.36	98.97	99.67	100.62	98.45(-3.81%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	18	90	16	22	0.47	50%	-0.06	-35.8	4.64%	0	-0.1	54	0
15	Dec_1_2015	103.53	99.5	98.49	98.18	98.4	100.2	102.35(4.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	27	130	28	24	0.33	50%	-0.02	-27.7	4.78%	0	0.6	56	0

16	Nov_30_2015	103.55	99.8	97.87	97.46	96.94	98.72	98.32(-2.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	110	30	13	0.23	50%	-0.06	-18.4	4.72%	0	-0.3	45	0
17	Nov_27_2015	103.61	99.86	97.63	96.58	96.39	96.61	100.82(6.2%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	15	10	22	-6	0.14	50%	-0.04	-21.3	4.75%	0	0.2	46	0
18	Nov_25_2015	103.65	99.82	97.01	95.95	95.83	95.16	94.93(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-30	-50	-27	-40	0.31	53%	-0.12	-16.5	4.76%	0	-1	40	0
19	Nov_24_2015	103.77	100.38	97.18	97.72	97.29	96.17	94.46(-4.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-23	-90	-18	-38	0.42	50%	-0.12	10.8	4.82%	0	-1.2	34	0
20	Nov_23_2015	103.89	100.76	97.51	98.82	98.85	96.5	98.75(5.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-27	-170	-21	-44	0.32	50%	-0.07	33.1	4.92%	0	-0.4	36	0

21	Nov_20_2015	103.96	100.71	97.8	98.34	99.42	98.41	93.92(-3.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-37	-40	-29	-59	0.47	45%	-0.13	38.4	4.92%	0	-1.4	28	0
22	Nov_19_2015	104.1	100.93	98.77	98.7	99.36	101.2	97.71(-5.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	5	150	18	-34	0.25	46%	-0.08	48.5	4.98%	0	-0.6	51	0
23	Nov_18_2015	104.18	100.65	99.28	98.1	98.08	100.43	103.76(3.82%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	28	170	45	-24	0.26	47%	-0.01	44.5	4.97%	0	0.5	56	0
24	Nov_17_2015	104.19	99.87	99.61	96.62	96.56	97.51	99.94(3.68%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	6	70	22	-42	0.36	48%	-0.06	37.7	4.95%	0	0	43	0
25	Nov_16_2015	104.25	99.23	100.49	96.11	96.31	95.72	96.39(0.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-17	-40	-7	-48	0.22	48%		36.5	4.95%	0	-0.4	47	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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